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中國(guó)的英語(yǔ)教育
最近我關(guān)注了一下英語(yǔ)作為第一外語(yǔ)在中國(guó)的情況，發(fā)現(xiàn)英語(yǔ)教育市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模,，就像中國(guó)很多其他事情一樣,，數(shù)字都大得驚人。
首先,，一個(gè)普遍認(rèn)可的估計(jì)值是,，中國(guó)目前英語(yǔ)學(xué)習(xí)者總數(shù)有3億之多，只比美國(guó)總?cè)丝跀?shù)少1億,。
這其中即包括教授英語(yǔ)的私立學(xué)校,，也包括公立學(xué)校。還有一點(diǎn)需要特別關(guān)注的是,，提供英語(yǔ)教學(xué),、輔導(dǎo)或是（SAT、托福,、GRE,、GMAT）考前培訓(xùn)的私立學(xué)校規(guī)模十分龐大，增速極其迅猛,，使今年的市場(chǎng)規(guī)模達(dá)到了45億美元,，這個(gè)增長(zhǎng)速度已超過了中國(guó)GDP。
眼下在中國(guó),，大約有50,000所私立英語(yǔ)學(xué)校,，其中大多數(shù)是小型或地方性的、區(qū)域性的學(xué)校,。在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈的英語(yǔ)外語(yǔ)教育和應(yīng)試教育領(lǐng)域中,，占主導(dǎo)地位的是三家全國(guó)性機(jī)構(gòu)：在紐約證交所上市的中國(guó)新東方公司、瑞典私人企業(yè)英孚教育,、培生集團(tuán)旗下的華爾街英語(yǔ),。這塊陣地是英語(yǔ)外語(yǔ)教學(xué)的高端市場(chǎng)，它的消費(fèi)者需要支付高昂的學(xué)費(fèi),，參加由訓(xùn)練有素的英語(yǔ)母語(yǔ)教師執(zhí)教的班級(jí)課程,，并使用專業(yè)水平的教材。
假如你覺得這個(gè)行業(yè)“看上去很美”,，請(qǐng)一定要三思,。2009年，有三家在中國(guó)頗具知名度的英語(yǔ)學(xué)校都遭遇了破產(chǎn),，空留眾多中國(guó)學(xué)子預(yù)付了學(xué)費(fèi),，卻無學(xué)可上。其中的問題之一就是行業(yè)的市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入門檻相對(duì)較低，吸引了各路人馬參與,，也包括一些由于資金緊張或其他原因缺乏持久能力的玩家,。
目前，在中國(guó)境內(nèi)授課的英語(yǔ)母語(yǔ)教師僅有5,000人,，導(dǎo)致師生比例達(dá)到駭人聽聞的1：60,000,。當(dāng)然，這個(gè)數(shù)字還只是個(gè)假設(shè),，因?yàn)榇蟛糠謱W(xué)習(xí)英語(yǔ)的中國(guó)人都沒有機(jī)會(huì)接觸到以英語(yǔ)為母語(yǔ)的老師,。
如果你去中國(guó)的任意一家書店，都會(huì)看到在英語(yǔ)自學(xué)教材,、教學(xué)項(xiàng)目和教學(xué)工具的柜臺(tái)前聚集著大批消費(fèi)者,。而面向中國(guó)讀者的英語(yǔ)學(xué)習(xí)雜志就超過了幾十種，分別針對(duì)不同年齡段的人群,。
在網(wǎng)絡(luò)和手機(jī)上,，也有很多花里胡哨的英語(yǔ)自學(xué)和提高產(chǎn)品，大多價(jià)格低廉,，甚至是免費(fèi)的。其中有些是中國(guó)產(chǎn)品,，也有些來自BBC,、美國(guó)之音、澳大利亞廣播網(wǎng)等國(guó)際渠道,。
是什么讓中國(guó)人對(duì)英語(yǔ)學(xué)習(xí)如此癡迷呢,？
20到30年前，浪漫,、熱情和好奇三者交織也許是花錢學(xué)習(xí)英語(yǔ)的最大動(dòng)因,。但如今的消費(fèi)者主要是沖著非常實(shí)用的目的：通過考試、考?。▏?guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)外）更好的學(xué)校,、找到更好的工作。
想一想,，這倒也不足為怪,。因?yàn)闊o論是在教育市場(chǎng)還是就業(yè)市場(chǎng)，中國(guó)現(xiàn)在的機(jī)會(huì)都比20年前要多得多,，但有實(shí)力抓住這些機(jī)遇的人也在增多,，導(dǎo)致競(jìng)爭(zhēng)十分激烈。
這種趨勢(shì)的攀升也讓越來越多的富裕家庭父母開始送孩子出國(guó)念大學(xué),、甚至念中學(xué),。而就在不久以前，中國(guó)留學(xué)生出國(guó)就讀的還大多是研究生。
近幾年,，就業(yè)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的斷層,。入門級(jí)崗位有太多的大學(xué)畢業(yè)生競(jìng)爭(zhēng)極少的合適機(jī)會(huì)，但高級(jí)人才崗位又難覓合格的人才,。
有一點(diǎn)可以肯定的是,，無論潛在的雇主是國(guó)企還是外企，都要求員工具備良好的中英文水平,，企業(yè)也愿意為這類人才支付相應(yīng)的報(bào)酬,。所以年輕的中國(guó)白領(lǐng)，或者希望成為白領(lǐng)的人才會(huì)繳納高額的學(xué)費(fèi),，去高檔私立英語(yǔ)學(xué)校學(xué)習(xí),。對(duì)他們來說，這是一種只賺不賠的個(gè)人投資,，比買股票或是存錢回報(bào)都更高,。
我覺得這個(gè)投資策略很高明。
往后看,，從現(xiàn)在的報(bào)名入學(xué)趨勢(shì)推算,，以及對(duì)未來中國(guó)高級(jí)英語(yǔ)學(xué)生總數(shù)進(jìn)行一番預(yù)測(cè)，都不難看出,，在不久的將來,，這一群體的數(shù)量將超過澳大利亞的人口總數(shù)（目前為2,150萬）。
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English as a Second Language in China
I recently took a look at English as a Second Language in China. Like so many things in China, the numbers relating to the size of the ESL market are somewhat staggering.
To begin with, the generally accepted estimate of the total number of people studying English in China is 300 million, which is just 10 million less than the total population of the United States.
This includes private as well as public schools which teach English. Looking specifically at the large and fast-growing sector of private schools providing ESL instruction, tutoring, or test preparation services (e.g. SAT, TOEFL, GRE, GMAT etc.), this market is about US$4.5 billion in size this year, and expanding much faster than China's rate of GDP growth.
There are something like 50,000 private English schools in China, most of which are small and either local or regional. Three national-level players dominate the highly competitive private ESL instruction and test-preparation field, NYSE-listed Chinese company New Oriental, privately owned Swedish company EF Education First, and Pearson PLC's Wall Street Institute. This is the premium end of the ESL market, where consumers pay high tuitions for a classroom-centered product with highly-trained native English teachers and professional quality curricular materials.
If it looks like an easy business to succeed in, think again. Three fairly high-profile ESL schools in China went bankrupt in 2009, leaving lots of Chinese students without the lessons they had paid in advance for. Part of the problem is that market entry barriers in this sector are fairly low, which attracts all sorts of players, including some who lack staying power due to insufficient capital or for other reasons.
There are only 5,000 native speakers of English teaching English in Chinese classrooms, yielding a fairly daunting student-teacher ratio of 60,000 to 1. This is obviously a hypothetical number, because the vast majority of English learners in China simply do not have access to teachers who are native speakers.
Visit any Chinese bookstore, and you will see a large concentration of consumers in the sections offering ESL self-study books, programs, and gadgets. There are more than a dozen magazines specializing in English learning content for Chinese consumers, aimed at various different age groups.
In the online and mobile space, there is a dazzling array of self-study and ESL improvement products on offer, mostly at very low prices or free of charge, from domestic Chinese as well as international sources such as the BBC, Voice of America, Australian Broadcast Network, etc.
What's driving this extraordinary love affair with English study in China?
Romance, passion and curiosity probably loomed large in the consumers' motivation towards ESL study 20-30 years ago, but today's consumers are mainly driven by very pragmatic goals: passing tests, gaining admission to better schools (at home and abroad), and getting better jobs.
This is not surprising when you think about it, because whether in education or the job market, there are vastly more opportunities in China than there were 20 years ago, but also a hyper-competitive rush by more and more qualified people to seize those opportunities.
Some of the trends this has given rise to include more affluent parents sending their children overseas for undergraduate, and even secondary studies; whereas until recently the vast majority of overseas students from China were at the graduate level.
In the job market, serious disconnects have emerged in recent years. At the entry level, far too many college graduates are chasing too few appropriate jobs. At the higher level, there is a serious shortage of qualified staff.
One thing is for sure, whether prospective employers are Chinese companies or international ones, they all want employees with good English and Chinese skills, and are willing to compensate such people accordingly. That's why young white collar Chinese, or white collar wannabes, are able to justify paying high tuition rates for premium level private ESL instruction. To them, it's a personal investment with almost sure-fire returns, much more so than buying equities or putting funds on deposit.
I think that's a smart investment strategy.
Looking down the road, extrapolating from current enrollment trend lines and forecasting the future size of China's population of advanced learners of English, it's not difficult to foresee the day in the not so distant future when the size of this group will surpass the total population of Australia (current population: 21.5 million). |
