????美國(guó)商業(yè)圓桌會(huì)議（Business Roundtable）近日公布的第一季度首席執(zhí)行官前景指數(shù)創(chuàng)下歷史新高,。這個(gè)已有九年歷史的指數(shù)反映的是對(duì)未來(lái)銷(xiāo)售額,、資本支出和雇傭趨勢(shì)的預(yù)期，該指數(shù)第一季度達(dá)到113點(diǎn),，比前高點(diǎn)整整高出了7%,。

????對(duì)142位首席執(zhí)行官的調(diào)查顯示，92%的受訪者預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)6個(gè)月銷(xiāo)售額將增加,，52%預(yù)計(jì)將在美國(guó)招工,。他們預(yù)計(jì)今年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長(zhǎng)2.9%，高于此前預(yù)期的2.5%,。

????首席執(zhí)行官們“預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)6個(gè)月經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭向好,，需求的增長(zhǎng)將催生更多的投資和就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)”，美國(guó)商業(yè)圓桌會(huì)議主席,、Verizon首席執(zhí)行官伊萬(wàn)?塞登伯格表示,。

????當(dāng)然，“增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭向好”并不能說(shuō)明太多問(wèn)題,，畢竟經(jīng)濟(jì)仍乏力,。但首席執(zhí)行官們信心滿(mǎn)滿(mǎn)，這一點(diǎn)并不令人奇怪,。十年來(lái)美國(guó)工資水平持平,，而首席執(zhí)行官的薪酬持續(xù)飆升。雖然此輪經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇疲弱,，但許多增長(zhǎng)都惠及大公司,。例如，企業(yè)利潤(rùn)現(xiàn)已達(dá)歷史高點(diǎn)（見(jiàn)上圖）,。

????與此同時(shí),，消費(fèi)者卻明顯信心不足，原因是食品和能源價(jià)格上漲以及好工作機(jī)會(huì)匱乏,。就想想首席執(zhí)行官們對(duì)銷(xiāo)售額和雇傭預(yù)期之間高達(dá)40點(diǎn)的差距吧,。

????首席執(zhí)行官們和消費(fèi)者之間的信心差距，或許不能說(shuō)明美國(guó)大公司已脫離普羅大眾,。但有一個(gè)跡象完全可以說(shuō)明首席執(zhí)行官們正在脫離現(xiàn)實(shí)——此次調(diào)查中受訪的首席執(zhí)行官們無(wú)一預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)6個(gè)月其所在公司的銷(xiāo)售額將下降,。

????即便是在2004-2007年那段人們感覺(jué)良好的泡沫時(shí)期 ,，每次調(diào)查都至少有一、兩位首席執(zhí)行官承認(rèn),，其所在公司的銷(xiāo)售額可能會(huì)下降,。但這次一個(gè)人都沒(méi)有。這無(wú)疑反映了大公司高管們的非理性樂(lè)觀情緒,。

????The Business Roundtable's CEO outlook index hit its highest level on record in the first quarter, the trade group said Wednesday. The 9-year-old index, measuring expected sales, capital spending and hiring trends, hit 113 – a full 7% above than the previous high water mark.

????A survey of 142 chief executives showed 92% expect sales to rise in the next six months, and 52% expect to hire workers in the United States. They expect the U.S. economy to expand at a 2.9% clip this year, up from a previous 2.5%.

????Execs "see momentum in the economy over the next six months, with increased demand fueling greater investment and job creation," said the group's leader, Verizon (VZ) chief Ivan Seidenberg.

????Of course, "increased momentum" is not saying much, as lukewarm as the economy has been. But that CEOs should be highly confident now is no surprise. While U.S. wages have been flat for a decade, CEO pay continues to soar. And as weak as this recovery has been, many of the gains have accrued to big companies. Corporate profits are at a record (see chart, above), for instance.

????At the same time, consumers are feeling markedly less confident, as a result of rising food and energy prices and the scarcity of good jobs. Consider the 40-point gap between the CEOs' sales and hiring expectations.

????The disparity between CEO and consumer confidence may or may not show that big U.S. companies are decoupling from Main Street. But here is a good sign the CEOs are decoupling from reality: not one executive surveyed in the latest round expects his or her company's sales to fall in the next six months.

????Even in the bubbly feel-good days of 2004-2007, every survey had at least one or two execs who admitted to lower sales ahead. But not this time. Score one for irrational exuberance in the catbird seat.