中國(guó)百萬(wàn)富翁數(shù)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng) 不受經(jīng)濟(jì)減速影響
????中國(guó)計(jì)劃在2015年底前平均每天發(fā)起一宗首次公開(kāi)募股(IPO),,這一過(guò)程正在創(chuàng)造驚人的財(cái)富,,全球頂級(jí)銀行都竭力想抓住這個(gè)商機(jī)。波士頓咨詢公司(Boston Consulting Group)的一份最新報(bào)告顯示,即便中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速增長(zhǎng)目前呈現(xiàn)出一定的放緩跡象,,但在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái),,中國(guó)家庭財(cái)富仍將以每年14%的速度增長(zhǎng)。 ????美國(guó)和歐洲銀行正在跑步進(jìn)入該市場(chǎng)——至少以中國(guó)監(jiān)管部門(mén)許可的速度,。過(guò)去幾個(gè)月,,這些銀行排隊(duì)要與中國(guó)證券公司建立提供投資銀行產(chǎn)品的合資公司,并已在香港增設(shè)了大量私人理財(cái)經(jīng)理,,提供投資和理財(cái)建議服務(wù),。它們還在計(jì)劃提供大量人民幣計(jì)價(jià)債券、衍生工具等產(chǎn)品——都是去年首度出現(xiàn)的,。去年,,香港銀行賬戶中的人民幣存款增長(zhǎng)了三倍。 ????中國(guó)官方公布的五年規(guī)劃支持國(guó)有企業(yè)私有化,,鼓勵(lì)2015年底前每年完成300宗IPO,,這意味著數(shù)十億美元的資金急需理財(cái)服務(wù),同時(shí)也意味著大量的投資機(jī)會(huì),?!皶?huì)有越來(lái)越多的中國(guó)企業(yè)上市,同時(shí)出現(xiàn)大量財(cái)富神話,,”波士頓咨詢公司亞太金融機(jī)構(gòu)專項(xiàng)負(fù)責(zé)人兼本報(bào)告作者之一鄧俊豪表示,,“正因?yàn)槿绱耍芏嗨饺算y行都在覬覦這個(gè)不斷增長(zhǎng)的市場(chǎng),?!?/p> ????然而這并非易事。目前人民幣還無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)完全自由兌換,,中國(guó)監(jiān)管部門(mén)對(duì)外資銀行仍然實(shí)行市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入制度,,限制外資銀行設(shè)立新的分支機(jī)構(gòu)并為中國(guó)客戶提供全套服務(wù)。雖然中國(guó)早在2001年加入世界貿(mào)易組織(World Trade Organization)時(shí)就已列明了逐步開(kāi)放銀行業(yè)的條款,,但外資銀行發(fā)現(xiàn)過(guò)去十年監(jiān)管部門(mén)的審批過(guò)程仍然緩慢而繁瑣,。中資銀行業(yè)正在日益成熟壯大,而外資銀行卻被遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)拋在了后面,。 ????盡管過(guò)程可能沉悶乏味,,但面對(duì)如此巨大的商機(jī),外資銀行業(yè)所無(wú)法視而不見(jiàn),。上周四,,花旗集團(tuán)(Citigroup)宣布將與總部位于上海的東方證券建立一家合資企業(yè),首次獲得在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)承銷股票和債券的資格,;東方證券將持有合資企業(yè)67%的股份,。然而,,花旗進(jìn)入這個(gè)市場(chǎng)的時(shí)間已經(jīng)落后于同行。高盛(Goldman Sachs),、德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank),、瑞銀(UBS)、蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)等其他7家銀行早已推出了中國(guó)證券合資公司,。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)也于今年1月獲得了中國(guó)投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)資格,。 ????在零售層面,花旗銀行(Citibank)一直的擴(kuò)張速度已經(jīng)達(dá)到了中國(guó)監(jiān)管部門(mén)所允許的上限,。該行目前在中國(guó)13個(gè)省市設(shè)有36家分支機(jī)構(gòu),,并公開(kāi)宣布希望今年年底前網(wǎng)點(diǎn)能增至50家,三年內(nèi)增至100家,。 ????另外,,匯豐(HSBC)也非常看好亞洲的銀行業(yè)商機(jī),。去年該行將首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾?蓋根及高管人員的常駐地從倫敦總部遷到了香港,,并將亞洲稱為“最具戰(zhàn)略性重要意義的地區(qū)”。 ????目前,,亞洲私人銀行只擁有亞洲財(cái)富總額38.5萬(wàn)億美元中的1.5萬(wàn)億美元——占比不到4%,。“私人銀行的滲透率仍然很低,,因此商機(jī)巨大,。”鄧俊豪表示,,“許多在岸市場(chǎng)[如中國(guó)和印度]仍然存在高度管制,,隨著監(jiān)管環(huán)境開(kāi)始變得開(kāi)放,私人銀行業(yè)有望擴(kuò)大在這些國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)上的銷售,?!?/p> ????目前而言,顯然亞洲家庭的財(cái)富積累速度快于全球其他地區(qū)——盡管美國(guó)仍穩(wěn)居榜首,。下面的數(shù)據(jù)源于波士頓咨詢公司的最新報(bào)告: ????-- 中國(guó)及周邊國(guó)家(日本除外)去年的財(cái)富增速為17%,,而美國(guó)家庭的財(cái)富增速剛剛超過(guò)10%。 ????-- 但美國(guó)的增速仍高于中東和拉美平均8%的增速,;歐洲家庭的財(cái)富增速更是相形失色,,僅為4.8%,。 ????-- 美國(guó)的百萬(wàn)美元資產(chǎn)家庭數(shù)量仍居全球首位(520萬(wàn)戶) – 是中國(guó)(110萬(wàn)戶)的6倍,。 ????--此外,美國(guó)家庭財(cái)富超過(guò)1億美元的超級(jí)富豪家庭數(shù)量仍是全球最多的(合計(jì)達(dá)2,692戶),。 ????-- 但中國(guó)的超級(jí)富豪家庭增速最快——高達(dá)30% (總數(shù)為393戶),。 ????-- 未來(lái)增長(zhǎng)將主要來(lái)自新興市場(chǎng)——預(yù)計(jì)2015年底前中國(guó)每年增長(zhǎng)14%,,印度每年18%。 ????不太走運(yùn)的一個(gè)地方是日本,。即便沒(méi)有巨災(zāi),,其財(cái)富也在縮水——去年下降了0.2%。雖然2008年日本擁有亞洲50%以上的財(cái)富,,但隨著中國(guó)和印度的家庭財(cái)富持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),預(yù)計(jì)到2015年這一數(shù)字將降至33%,。中國(guó)和印度的發(fā)展使全球增長(zhǎng)引擎得以維持,,全球頂級(jí)銀行必然聞風(fēng)而至,加緊對(duì)這一地區(qū)的爭(zhēng)奪,。 |
????China's plan to launch nearly an IPO a day through 2015 is creating a phenomenal amount of wealth, and the world's top banks are scrambling to capture it. And even though the rocketing economic growth in China shows some signs of slowing, Chinese household wealth will still grow 14% a year for the foreseeable future, according to a new report from the Boston Consulting Group. ????U.S. and European banks are racing into the region -- or at least as fast as Chinese regulators will let them. In the past few months, banks teamed up in joint ventures with Chinese securities operations to offer investment banking and they've added a slew of private wealth-managers in Hong Kong to offer investment and financial planning advice. They're also working to produce a spate of Chinese yuan-denominated products such as bonds and derivatives -- all offered for the first time last year. Deposits in the Chinese currency in Hong Kong bank accounts also quadrupled last year. ????China's official Five-Year Plan to support the privatization of state-owned enterprises and encourage 300 public share offerings a year through 2015 will translate into billions of dollars just waiting for wealth managers and investment opportunities. "You will see many more Chinese companies come to market, and many wealth creation events," says Tjun Tang, the head of the Boston Consulting Group's Asia-Pacific financial institutions practice and one of the authors of the report. "That's why many private banks are gearing up to serve this growing market." ????It's not always easy. China doesn't allow its currency, the yuan, to be fully convertible, and it has restricted market access to foreign banks that want to open new branches and offer their full range of services to Chinese customers. While terms for China's gradual opening up of the banking sector were laid out when the country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, foreign banks have found the past decade of regulatory approval to be a slow, step-by-step process that has kept them far behind the curve as domestic Chinese banks mature and continue to grow. ????Tedious as it may be, the opportunity is too huge for the banks to ignore. On Thursday, Citigroup (C) announced that it would form a joint venture with Shanghai-based Orient Securities Co., allowing it to underwrite stocks and bonds in the China market for the first time. Orient Securities would own 67% of the venture. But Citi is a relative latecomer to this game. Seven other banks including Goldman Sachs (GS), Deutsche Bank (DB), UBS (UBS), and Royal Bank of Scotland have already launched Chinese securities ventures. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) received Chinese regulatory approval for investment banking in January. ????On the retail level, Citibank is expanding as fast as Chinese regulators will let it. It has just 36 branches in 13 cities in China, although it has said publicly that it wants to have 50 by the end of the year and 100 within three years. ????And HSBC considers Asia's banking potential so critical that last year it relocated its CEO Michael Geoghegan and his top executives from London headquarters to Hong Kong, calling Asia its "strategically most important region." ????For now, private banks in Asia have just $1.5 trillion of the $38.5 trillion of the total wealth in Asia—or less than 4%. "The penetration of private banking is low, so the opportunity is still very big," says Tang. "A lot of onshore markets [like China and India] are still highly regulated, so as the regulatory environment begins to open, private banks will be allowed to sell more in those domestic markets." ????For a while now, it's been clear that Asia is getting richer faster than the rest of the world—though the U.S. still remains on top. According to the data from the BCG report: ????-- Wealth in China and its surrounding countries (except Japan) grew at a rate of 17% last year; household wealth of Americans grew at just over 10%. ????-- Yet U.S. growth is still higher than the 8% average in the Middle East and Latin America; Europe's wealth growth was an anemic 4.8%. ????-- The United States still has the most millionaires of anywhere in the world (5.2 million households) – five times more than China has (with 1.1 million). ????-- And the U.S. still has the highest number of "super-wealthy" households having over $100 million (a total of 2,692). ????-- But China experienced the highest growth of "super-wealthy" households – the number is up 30% (to a total of 393). ????-- Emerging markets will experience most of the growth going forward – 14% in China, and 18% per year in India, through 2015. ????One of the unfortunate stories, however, is Japan. Even without its huge natural disaster, its wealth has been declining -- it was down by 0.2% last year. While the Japanese had more than 50% of Asia's wealth in 2008, that number is expected to decline to 33% by 2015 as China and India continue to grow wealthier, keeping global growth engines surging ahead, and the world's top banks scrambling to keep up. |