降息:經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇乏力,,美國(guó)重施故技
????全球股市大跌后,,為重振經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)再次祭出了降息大旗,。 ????美國(guó)聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)(Federal Open Market Committee)周二放出消息,,政府計(jì)劃大幅降低利率。自2008年以來(lái),,政府便一直使用降息手段來(lái)緩解借貸壓力以促使投資者將資本注入股市等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng),。與以往不同的是,此次美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)明確提出了時(shí)間限定,,并稱至少在2013年年中之前,,基準(zhǔn)利率都將處于歷史最低水平。 ????或許有些人認(rèn)為這一舉措堪稱果敢,,但是它卻難以扭轉(zhuǎn)目前經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的頹勢(shì),。這一舉措無(wú)非再次證實(shí)了人們熟知的事實(shí):經(jīng)濟(jì)糟透了! ????美國(guó)聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)會(huì)議之后,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在接下來(lái)的聲明中證實(shí)了這一計(jì)劃,。與預(yù)期的一樣,這一舉措觀望態(tài)度十足,,并無(wú)任何激烈之處,。該舉措還包括進(jìn)行大規(guī)模的國(guó)債收購(gòu),暨所謂的量化寬松政策,。(詳見(jiàn):《美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)救市無(wú)方》一文) ????現(xiàn)在,,似乎美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正高掛免戰(zhàn)牌。這也情有可原的,。政府也可以向經(jīng)濟(jì)注資數(shù)十億美元,,但是誰(shuí)敢保證疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)就會(huì)因此好轉(zhuǎn),惱人的失業(yè)率就會(huì)因此下降,。 ????“我認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)的舉措上已是黔驢技窮,,”哥倫比亞大學(xué)(Columbia University)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授大衛(wèi)?貝姆在一封郵件中寫(xiě)道,“寬松貨幣政策,、量化寬松以及寬松的赤字政策這些經(jīng)典的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)處方已經(jīng)被運(yùn)用到了極致,,但是經(jīng)濟(jì)卻已經(jīng)不再買(mǎi)賬?!?/p> ????人們的反應(yīng)并不強(qiáng)烈,。畢竟,公司現(xiàn)金流非常充足,。美國(guó)也并未出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的流動(dòng)性問(wèn)題,。 ????“經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的障礙另有文章:消費(fèi)者負(fù)債過(guò)多,,房產(chǎn)過(guò)剩,勞動(dòng)力受教育水平偏低,,”貝姆補(bǔ)充道,,“要在短時(shí)間內(nèi)解決這些結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題基本上是不可能的。就算砸再多的錢(qián)也很難起作用,?!?/p> |
????In a bid to reboot the economic recovery following a global stock rout, the Federal Reserve is sticking by its old toolbox. ????The Federal Open Market Committee today signaled plans to keep interest rates exceptionally low. Officials have resorted to this policy prescription since 2008 in hopes of helping keep borrowing rates low and driving investors into riskier assets like stocks. What's different this time is that the Fed has explicitly spelled out a timeline, saying that it would keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low at least through mid-2013. ????This might sound like a bold move to some, but it likely won't do much to jolt our tepid economic recovery. The action merely underscores what most of us already know: The economy stinks! ????The Fed essentially confirmed that in a statement following the FOMC meeting. As expected, it adopted a wait-and-see approach without embarking on anything too dramatic, including unleashing another round of large-scale bond purchases called quantitative easing. (See: Don't look to the Fed for a rescue) ????For now, it seems the Fed is sitting idle. And who could blame it? Officials could pump billions of dollars into the economy but it's questionable if that will really do much to spur faster growth or bring down our annoyingly high unemployment rate. ????"My take on the Fed is that they do not have any effective tools available to help the economy," writes Columbia University economics professor David Beim in an e-mail. "The classic macroeconomic prescription of easy monetary policy has been used to the max, together with quantitative easing, together with very loose fiscal policy, and these have not budged the economy." ????This isn't all that surprising. After all, companies are flushed with cash. The nation isn't exactly suffering from a liquidity problem. ????"…The obstacles to economic recovery lie elsewhere: over-indebted consumers, over-built real estate and under-educated workers," Beim adds. "Fixing these structural problems in a short time frame, however, is unlikely. Throwing more money at them is ineffectual." |