????全球汽車業(yè)似乎剛要迎來翹首以待的反彈,，誰知又再次撞上南墻。分析人士最近紛紛調(diào)低了今年和明年的汽車銷售預(yù)期,?？磥?，倒閉潮,、經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和日本3月地震所帶來的后遺癥還遠(yuǎn)沒有到痊愈的時(shí)候。

????一旦對(duì)于銷售低迷的擔(dān)憂變成現(xiàn)實(shí),，汽車廠家將被迫減產(chǎn)裁員,，而進(jìn)口商將減少日本車、歐洲車和韓國(guó)車的進(jìn)口量,。與此同時(shí),，為了節(jié)約開支，消費(fèi)者將在2011年和2012年繼續(xù)使用現(xiàn)有的座駕,。經(jīng)季節(jié)調(diào)整之后的汽車銷售量從7月份的1,220萬輛下降到了8月份的1,210萬輛,。

????但是日本的汽車供應(yīng)是個(gè)例外。日本3月11日發(fā)生了地震和海嘯,，生產(chǎn)停頓,，目前正處于恢復(fù)期。

????在美國(guó),，“工作很難找”,，資訊公司HIS汽車部高級(jí)汽車經(jīng)濟(jì)師喬治?麥格里亞諾說道。他的這番話描述了整個(gè)美國(guó)失業(yè)狀況而不僅僅是底特律就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)的銳減,。目前,，美國(guó)失業(yè)率仍然徘徊在9%的高位,。“誰都想買新車,，但是現(xiàn)在他們連住的地方都沒有,。人們的股票投資組合也受到了經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟的侵蝕?！?/p>

????麥格里亞諾說如今美國(guó)路面上行使的車輛平均使用年限已經(jīng)超過了10年,，創(chuàng)下歷史之最。目前美國(guó)本土老化的車輛共有約2.37億輛,，與以往經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間出產(chǎn)的車相比,，這些車更耐用，也更易于修理,。

????換句話說,，汽車廠家多年來對(duì)汽車質(zhì)量的不斷改進(jìn)如今反而成了汽車業(yè)發(fā)展的絆腳石。

????兩周前,，HIS公司將今年的銷售預(yù)期由先前的1,270萬輛下調(diào)至1,250萬輛,。麥格里亞諾還說，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇伊始,，該公司對(duì)2011年汽車銷售的預(yù)期高達(dá)1,340萬輛,。過去10年，美國(guó)汽車的年銷售量最高為1,700萬輛,，平均每年達(dá)到了1,600萬輛,。

????市場(chǎng)資訊公司J.D. Power & Associates北美市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)部的高級(jí)經(jīng)理大衛(wèi)?卡廷說：“要恢復(fù)到1,700萬輛的銷售水平需要一段時(shí)間?！迸c此同時(shí),，他還認(rèn)為，即使經(jīng)濟(jì)重新步入正軌,，1,500-1,600萬的年銷量也會(huì)成為“新的常態(tài)”,。

????兩周前，J.D. Power公司也將2011年的銷售預(yù)期由先前的1,290萬輛下調(diào)至1,260萬輛,，同時(shí)也將2012年的1,470萬輛的汽車和卡車的銷售預(yù)期下調(diào)至1,410萬輛,。

????“顯然，必須進(jìn)一步改善就業(yè)狀況,，”卡廷說,，“同時(shí)還需要解決政府的僵局?！逼囎赓U商赫茲（Hertz,）以及National公司曾經(jīng)都是汽車制造商旗下的公司,，也是汽車制造商銷售汽車的渠道。以前，這些租賃公司的車在使用不久后就會(huì)按“九成新”汽車出售給消費(fèi)者,。而現(xiàn)在,，租賃公司延長(zhǎng)了汽車使用時(shí)限，因此公司更新車輛的周期也相應(yīng)延長(zhǎng),?！案鶕?jù)我自己的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，現(xiàn)在很多租賃公司車都已經(jīng)跑了35,000-40,000英里”,，卡廷說,，“以前只有幾千英里而已”。

????某些車型的銷售好于整體車市的行情,，這包括部分緊湊車及跨界車?yán)缤ㄓ醚┓鹛m（Chevrolet）的Equinox,，福特（Ford）的Escape。部分日本車,，特別是本田（Honda）和豐田（Toyota）的車型往往供不應(yīng)求,。由于油價(jià)一直居高不下，福特的Taurus和克萊斯勒（Chrysler）300等大型車的銷量則逐年下降,。面包車的銷量例如克萊斯勒的Town and Country以及本田的奧德賽（Odyssey）也遭受了重創(chuàng),。

????租賃領(lǐng)域一直是美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的亮點(diǎn)之一，這一領(lǐng)域又新增了兩個(gè)百分點(diǎn)上升到20%,。寬松的借貸和低廉的利率刺激了租賃服務(wù)的發(fā)展,。

????作為消費(fèi)者的第二大消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域，汽車是財(cái)富的象征,，而汽車業(yè)則是解決就業(yè)的重要部門,，同時(shí)也是刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要因素。遭受重創(chuàng)的汽車業(yè)迫切需要喘息之機(jī),，因此,，面對(duì)低于預(yù)期的銷售量，失望的不僅僅是汽車廠商,，同時(shí)也包括它們的衣食父母——手頭拮據(jù)的美國(guó)消費(fèi)者。

????Just when automakers appeared to be gaining some much-needed momentum, they hit another wall. Weak economic conditions have prompted analysts to lower their vehicles sales forecasts for this year and next. Now, the hangover of bankruptcy, recession and the Japanese earthquake in March appears far from over.

????If fears of weaker sales become reality, auto plants will produce fewer vehicles and employ fewer workers, while importers could cut shipments from Japan, Europe and South Korea. Consumers, meanwhile, will continue to try and save money in 2011 and 2012 by driving their old cars a little while longer. The seasonally-adjusted annual rate of vehicle sales fell to 12.1 million in August from a 12.2 million rate in July.

????An exception to the forecast could be the supply of cars from Japan, which was disrupted by the March 11 earthquake and resulting tsunami. Japanese factories are recovering from the disaster.

????In the U.S. "the jobs just aren't there," says George Magliano, senior auto economist for IHS Automotive. He's not talking about a decimated Detroit, but the current overall U.S. unemployment rate, which hovers over 9%. "People would like to buy new cars, but they're being pushed out of their homes. Economic weakness is leaching into their stock portfolios."

????Magliano says the average age of a car on U.S. roads has risen above 10 years, the highest in history. The aging of the domestic fleet of about 237 million vehicles has been made possible by cars that are more durable and can be repaired more easily than in past recessions.

????In other words, years of striving to improve quality are coming back to bite auto manufacturers.

????Two weeks ago, IHS lowered its sales forecast for this year to 12.5 million vehicles, down from 12.7 million. In the early stage of the economic recovery, its forecast for 2011 was as high as 13.4 million vehicles, Magliano says. In the last decade U.S. sales were as high as 17 million vehicles and averaged about 16 million annually.

????"It will take a while to get back to that [17 million] level,'' says Dave Cutting, senior manager of North American forecasting for J.D. Power & Associates. In the meantime, he said, sales of 15 million to 16 million vehicles will be the "new normal" for a healthy economy.

????J.D. Power two weeks ago cut its 2011 vehicle sales forecast to 12.6 million, down from 12.9 million. For 2012 the company cut its forecast to 14.1 million cars and trucks from an earlier 14.7 million.

????"Obviously job creation has to improve," Cutting says, "as well as the gridlock that engulfs Washington."

????Rental car companies like Hertz (HTZ (HTZ, Fortune 500)) and National, once owned by automakers and used as a way to distribute vehicles that later were sold to consumers as "almost new," are also operating vehicles much longer before trading for new. "My own experience is that lots of rental cars have 35,000 or 40,000 miles on the odometer," Cutting says. "They used to have only a couple thousand."

????Certain segments have outperformed the overall market, noticeably compact cars as well as crossover utility vehicles like the Chevrolet (GM (GM, Fortune 500)) Equinox and Ford (F (F, Fortune 500)) Escape. And some Japanese vehicles, especially those from Honda (HMC (HMC)) and Toyota (TM (TM)), have been in short supply. Large cars like the Ford Taurus and Chrysler 300 are down in sales on a year-over-year basis, partly because of high gasoline prices. Minivans like Chrysler's Town and Country and Honda's Odyssey have been disproportionately hurt as well.

????One bright spot in the U.S. market has been leasing, which is up about 2 percentage points to 20%. The availability of credit and low interest costs have spurred lease deals.

????As the second-largest investment for consumers, cars are a sign of prosperity as well as a major employer and stimulant to the overall economy. Slower than expected sales, therefore, will be disappointing not only for a battered auto industry dying for a break -- but also for the strapped American consumers they're counting on.