????到了2022年，CEO們需要管理大量復(fù)雜的信息,，從顧客和員工的微博（或是2022年的別的什么東西）,，到數(shù)十億臺(tái)手機(jī)、傳感器以及其它設(shè)備生成的各種數(shù)據(jù),。擅于管理和發(fā)掘這些數(shù)據(jù)的企業(yè)才是能掙到大錢(qián)的企業(yè),。

????西班牙媒體公司ImpreMedia的副總裁約瑟?洛扎諾指出，忽視信息,、尤其是忽視社交媒體的聲音的企業(yè),，很可能會(huì)陷入危機(jī)?！安痪哂星罢靶缘钠髽I(yè)將在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中陷入被動(dòng),。”

????如果說(shuō)未來(lái)企業(yè)的成功將有賴于精通科技且多少有些桀驁不遜的年輕信息達(dá)人,，那么美國(guó)仍將保持領(lǐng)袖地位,。因?yàn)槟贻p人在西歐、日本和俄羅斯已經(jīng)成了一種稀缺商品,，甚至在中國(guó)也不例外，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)人口預(yù)計(jì)將從2020年開(kāi)始進(jìn)入負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，這意味著屆時(shí)將出現(xiàn)大量退休人口,，而社會(huì)上缺乏足夠的工齡人口來(lái)贍養(yǎng)他們,。另外這些國(guó)家也存在社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩的危險(xiǎn)，政府的腐敗是導(dǎo)致動(dòng)蕩的導(dǎo)火索之一,，它很可能抑制這些國(guó)家的長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,。而美國(guó)的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)制度則非常具有彈性。FTI的諾蘭稱：“誠(chéng)然,，美國(guó)也存在很多的挑戰(zhàn),，但是和其它國(guó)家面臨的情況相比，美國(guó)面臨的挑戰(zhàn)還是可以克服的,?！?/p>

????最令預(yù)測(cè)人士感到擔(dān)憂的，則是那些有能力毀城滅國(guó),，或是將國(guó)家?guī)霊?zhàn)爭(zhēng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),，它們深藏不露，悄然迫近,。伊朗,、朝鮮等所謂“流氓國(guó)家”仍會(huì)不時(shí)展示力量。令分析人士擔(dān)心的還有那些不惜在大城市部署核武器或生化設(shè)備的恐怖份子,。另外,，有能力扳倒政府的網(wǎng)絡(luò)襲擊也是一個(gè)隱憂。

????到了2022年,，企業(yè)面臨的最大的安全問(wèn)題當(dāng)然是網(wǎng)絡(luò)犯罪,。安全性公司Mandiant的CEO凱文?曼迪亞表示，如今來(lái)自中國(guó)的黑客經(jīng)常入侵美國(guó)企業(yè)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜尋知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)或貿(mào)易機(jī)密,。他補(bǔ)充道：“我最大的擔(dān)心是,，中國(guó)10年內(nèi)就能生產(chǎn)我們能夠生產(chǎn)的所有商品，但價(jià)格只有我們的一半——因?yàn)樗麄兺底吡宋覀兯械膭?chuàng)新技術(shù),?！?/p>

????如果曼迪亞的預(yù)言成真，那么未來(lái)的創(chuàng)新人士必須花更大的力氣,，跟山寨廠商們拉開(kāi)相當(dāng)?shù)木嚯x才行,。拿蘋(píng)果公司、DARPA和其它企業(yè)或機(jī)構(gòu)來(lái)說(shuō),，他們發(fā)明的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)必須相當(dāng)具有吸引力,，以至于沒(méi)有人想去買(mǎi)山寨貨。換句話說(shuō),，他們必須發(fā)明未來(lái),。

????譯者：樸成奎

????The CEO of 2022 will have to manage a complex business of far-flung inputs, from customers' and employees' tweets (or the 2022 equivalent) to all kinds of data persistently emitted from billions of phones, sensors, and other connected machines. Companies that can manage and mine all those bits and bytes stand to make a killing.

????Those who ignore information, especially voices coming over the social-media transom, do so at their peril, says Jose Lozano, vice chair of the Hispanic news company ImpreMedia: "Companies that aren't proactive will be at a competitive disadvantage."

????If the winning companies of the future will depend on young, tech-savvy, somewhat impertinent information junkies, the U.S. will still rule. Youth is a scarce commodity in Western Europe, Japan, and Russia. So, too, with China, where a population decline expected to kick in after 2020 means a surge of retirees without enough workers to support them. Nor are those countries immune from social unrest, fueled in part by government corruption that threatens to hold back long-term economic growth. America's political and economic systems, on the other hand, are remarkably resilient. "There are challenges to be sure, but in the context of what other countries are facing, ours are ones that can be met," says FTI's Nolan.

????What worries forecasters most are the black swans -- looming, below-the-surface dangers with the power to devastate nations or plunge countries into war. The bad state actors of today -- Iran, North Korea -- will still flex their muscles, but analysts also fear rogue terrorists who won't hesitate to deploy a nuclear or chemical device on a major city. Cyberattacks that bring down governments are also a worry.

????Cybercrime certainly is the biggest security issue corporations will face in 2022. Today an army of hackers in China routinely scour the networks of U.S. corporations in search of intellectual property and trade secrets, says Kevin Mandia, CEO of security firm Mandiant. He adds, "My biggest fear is that in 10 years China will be making everything we were making -- for half the price -- because they've stolen all our innovations."

????If Mandia is right, the innovators of tomorrow will have to work that much harder to stay a few steps ahead of the copycats. Like Apple (AAPL), DARPA, and others, they'll have to invent products and services that are so coveted that few will want to buy a knockoff. In other words, they'll have to invent the future.