????火爆的中國(guó)樓市及其對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響一直受到投資者的廣泛關(guān)注,，而且這種關(guān)注在情理之中,。

????1月份，巴克萊（Barclays）發(fā)布了最新的摩天大樓指數(shù)（Skyscraper Index）報(bào)告,，解析過(guò)去140年來(lái)摩天大樓的興建與經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫破裂之間的關(guān)聯(lián),。這種關(guān)聯(lián)可能純屬巧合，但指數(shù)顯示,，如今的東亞巨人——中國(guó)是全球“最大的泡沫制造國(guó)”,，并正在走向泡沫破裂。中國(guó)目前已經(jīng)擁有全球現(xiàn)有摩天大樓（即高度超過(guò)240米的高樓）的一半以上,，未來(lái)幾年還將新建更多摩天大樓,。

????但是，別對(duì)這個(gè)指數(shù)過(guò)度解讀。沒(méi)錯(cuò),，正如巴克萊所指,，美國(guó)大蕭條（the Great Depression）的時(shí)間與曼哈頓地區(qū)三幢地標(biāo)性摩天大樓的建造時(shí)間一致：華爾街40號(hào)大廈（40 Wall Street，現(xiàn)名為川普大廈——譯注）于1929年完工,，克萊斯勒大廈（Chrysler Building）于1930年建成,，帝國(guó)大廈（Empire State Building）于1931年落成。

????毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),，中國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)飛漲,，已經(jīng)超出了國(guó)內(nèi)中產(chǎn)階層的負(fù)擔(dān)能力。而且,，有理由相信,，在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將面臨嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)的2012年,，房?jī)r(jià)肯定會(huì)下跌,，但樓市絕不會(huì)崩盤(pán)。原因如下：

中國(guó)是儲(chǔ)蓄大國(guó)

????導(dǎo)致美國(guó)樓市崩潰的部分原因是零首付。雖然將美國(guó)樓市與中國(guó)樓市相提并論有些牽強(qiáng),，但值得指出的是,，中國(guó)家庭的負(fù)債比率遠(yuǎn)低于美國(guó),。

????眾所周知,，中國(guó)人熱衷存錢(qián),，對(duì)負(fù)債較為敏感，部分原因是由于中國(guó)沒(méi)有西方國(guó)家那樣健全的教育和醫(yī)療保障體系,。

????此外，試圖遏制房?jī)r(jià)快速上漲勢(shì)頭的中國(guó)政府已經(jīng)直接對(duì)購(gòu)房者（和炒房者）設(shè)置了限貸措施,。中國(guó)政府規(guī)定，第一套房最低首付三成,，第二套房最低首付六成。

????2010年,，中國(guó)住宅銷(xiāo)售總額4.4萬(wàn)億元人民幣（約6,970億美元）,。但據(jù)摩根大通（JP Morgan）2011年11月發(fā)布的中國(guó)住宅市場(chǎng)研究報(bào)告稱(chēng),，按揭貸款余額遠(yuǎn)低于這一水平，僅為1.4萬(wàn)億人民幣（約2,220億美元）,。

????“因此,，按揭貸款違約的可能性相當(dāng)?shù)?，”分析師們表示,，并稱(chēng),，即便假設(shè)房?jī)r(jià)狂跌30%,，按揭貸款的質(zhì)量“依然可靠”。

太多需求仍未得到滿(mǎn)足

????西方國(guó)家擁有大量投資渠道來(lái)吸納投資者的資金,，相比之下,，大多數(shù)中國(guó)人認(rèn)為相對(duì)安全的投資品種只有房地產(chǎn)等少數(shù)幾個(gè)選擇?？偛课挥谏虾５闹袊?guó)市場(chǎng)研究集團(tuán)（China Market Research Group）董事總經(jīng)理雷小山表示,，隨著中國(guó)居民的收入增加以及越來(lái)越多的農(nóng)村人口進(jìn)入城市（1月份，中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)人口數(shù)量在中國(guó)歷史上首次超過(guò)農(nóng)村）,，住房需求預(yù)計(jì)將繼續(xù)保持強(qiáng)勁,。

????China's hot property market and its implications on the global economy has been on the minds of many investors, and for good reason.

????In January, Barclays published its latest Skyscraper Index report, which tracks links between the rise in construction of tall buildings and economic busts over the past 140 years. This could be purely coincidental, but the index suggests that the East Asian giant is the world's "biggest bubble builder," and is on its way to an economic bust. China already has half of the world's existing skyscrapers (or buildings higher than 240 meters). And it plans to add more over the next several years.

????However, let's not read into this too much. It's true, as Barclays notes, that the Great Depression coincided with the construction of three landmark skyscrapers across Manhattan: 40 Wall Street completed in 1929, followed by the Chrysler Building in 1930, and the Empire State Building in 1931.

????No doubt, China's property prices have risen rapidly beyond the reach of much of the country's middle class. And there's reason to believe prices will certainly slide during what's expected to be a rocky economic year, but prices won't crash. Here's why:

China's nation of savers

????It was the no-money-down mentality that partly brought down America's housing market. While it would be a stretch to compare the U.S. market to China's, it's worth noting that our neighbors to the East are nowhere near as leveraged.

????China is known as a nation of savers, and consumers are relatively debt-wary, in part because the country doesn't have the kind of educational and health care safety nets that its Western neighbors enjoy.

????What's more, Chinese officials trying to clamp down on rapidly rising prices have directly placed limits on how much homebuyers (and speculators) can borrow. For primary-home buyers, the government has set a minimum down payment of 30% of the home's total sale price while buyers of second homes must put down at least 60%.

????In 2010, a total of 4.4 trillion renminbi (or about $697 billion) of residential buildings were sold in China. However, mortgage loans outstanding were far less, at 1.4 trillion renminbi (or $222 billion), according to a JP Morgan November 2011 report on China's housing market.

????"As a result, the probability of mortgage default is quite low," analysts say, adding that the quality of mortgage loans will "remain solid" even under the hypothetical scenario that home prices drop by 30%.

There's plenty of pent-up demand

????While the Western world has plenty of available options for investors to park their money, housing is considered one of the few relatively safe investments to most Chinese. As incomes rise and as more of the country's population is expected to move into urban areas (in January, China's urban population surpassed that of its rural areas for the first time in the country's history), demand for housing is expected to remain robust, says Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group, a Shanghai-based market research firm.