????花旗相信公司的未來顯然是在亞洲和拉美,，并且似乎已準(zhǔn)備好為此投入大筆資金。去年,，它斥資約6億美元投資海外業(yè)務(wù)，主要是在亞洲,，用于幫助開設(shè)新的分支機(jī)構(gòu)，招聘新員工,。潘迪特在北京表示，雖然花旗正在美國裁員,，但在亞洲正在擴(kuò)招員工，特別是在中國,。

????花旗進(jìn)入中國市場已有若干年的歷史，一直與政府保持著親密友好的關(guān)系,。它在中國13個(gè)大城市設(shè)有分行和46家個(gè)人銀行網(wǎng)點(diǎn)。在中國，銀行分支機(jī)構(gòu)非常重要,，它是個(gè)人獲取信用卡的唯一渠道。2003年以來,，花旗一直與一家中國國內(nèi)銀行合作發(fā)行信用卡。

????但花旗不斷擴(kuò)張的銀行網(wǎng)絡(luò)在中國整個(gè)個(gè)人銀行市場上占比仍然較小,。外資銀行在中國銀行市場的占有率僅為1.8%，花旗取得的是這其中更小的一部分,。過去五年，中國流通的信用卡數(shù)量猛增長了五倍,，達(dá)到了2.70億張。中國國內(nèi)大銀行占據(jù)了大部分市場,，但似乎依然存在更大的市場可供開拓。萬事達(dá)（MasterCard）估計(jì),，到2025年中國流通的信用卡數(shù)量將達(dá)到11億張，信用卡消費(fèi)額將達(dá)到2.5萬億美元,。鑒于中國龐大的人口規(guī)模和日益增長的個(gè)人收入，這樣的數(shù)字聽起來并不夸張,。

????中國人向來注重身份，花旗獲批發(fā)行自己的信用卡將提高它在中國人中的品牌認(rèn)知度,，特別是那些受過良好教育的、富裕的城市消費(fèi)者,，而這部分人正是花旗瞄準(zhǔn)的目標(biāo)。只要能在這個(gè)市場中分得一小杯羹,，就能帶來豐厚的回報(bào)。

????但如果中國經(jīng)濟(jì)高臺(tái)跳水,，銀行體系觸礁，情形又會(huì)如何？潘迪特在12月份的分析師會(huì)議上這樣說：

????毫無疑問,，新興市場地區(qū)會(huì)出現(xiàn)周期?？偸菚?huì)存在“增長過快或過慢”的問題,。不過，如果觀察趨勢,，長期的變化是真真切切的,。因此，如果認(rèn)為他們會(huì)達(dá)到6%的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速,，他們可能做不到,。就算他們的增速只有美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)壓力測試采用的4%或5%，那又怎樣,？說到底,，他們是在增長。因此,，我想我們已做好了準(zhǔn)備，我們可以抓住這個(gè)機(jī)遇,。

????因此，即便增長率沒有那么亮麗,，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速必定還是會(huì)快于美國和歐洲。進(jìn)入中國市場,，不管我們的市場占有率多低，總的效果還是積極的,。

????當(dāng)然，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)觸底,，人們失業(yè)，信貸增速可能很快就會(huì)掉頭向下,。眼下,，人們認(rèn)為中國樓市已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)類似幾年美國出現(xiàn)過的泡沫,，甚至更嚴(yán)重。與此同時(shí),，歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的放緩也對(duì)中國出口造成了沖擊。中國人習(xí)慣在買大件商品時(shí)全部用現(xiàn)金支付,，但這種情況正在發(fā)生改變，因?yàn)楹竺珴蓶|時(shí)期的年輕一代更習(xí)慣于貸款消費(fèi)以及使用銀行卡,。房價(jià)下跌可能迅速擴(kuò)散至消費(fèi)者信用卡領(lǐng)域,，對(duì)花旗的凈利潤構(gòu)成雙重打擊。

????目前尚不清楚中國政府會(huì)容忍花旗在中國做到多大,。中國政府一直對(duì)金融業(yè)嚴(yán)加監(jiān)管，力挺國有銀行的發(fā)展,。但即便只是在這個(gè)迅速膨脹的市場中分得一小杯羹，對(duì)花旗也意義非凡,。如果中國政府繼續(xù)限制其他外資銀行進(jìn)入這個(gè)市場的話，那就更是如此了,。

????譯者：zdm

????Citi believes that its future clearly lies in Asia and Latin America and seems prepared to put in the investment dollars to get it done. It spent around $600 million investing in its operations abroad last year, with the bulk centered in Asia. That helped the bank open new branches and hire new workers. In Beijing, Pandit said that while the bank was paring down its workforce in the U.S., it was ramping up hiring in Asia, especially China.

????Citi has been in China for a while and maintains close and cordial relations with the government. It has new branches in 13 major Chinese cities along with 46 consumer outlets. The bank branch is very important in China, as it's the only place where a person can obtain a credit card. Since 2003, Citi has issued a credit card in cooperation with a local Chinese partner.

????But Citi's expanded physical presence is still but a small fraction of the total Chinese consumer banking market. Foreign banks hold just 1.8% of the market, with Citi a small sliver of that. The number of credit cards in circulation in China has exploded to 270 million, up five fold since in the last five years. The big Chinese banks have gotten most of that business, but there seems to be a lot more market to share. MasterCard (MA) estimates that China will have 1.1 billion credit cards in circulation by 2025, with spending on those cards estimated to reach $2.5 trillion. Based on China's population and rising personal incomes, that number sounds modest.

????Allowing Citi to market its own card will raise its brand recognition among the status-driven Chinese, especially the urban, educated and rich consumers that Citi wants to target. Tapping just a fraction of that market could be very lucrative.

????But what if the Chinese economy falls off a cliff and the banking system runs aground? Pandit said this at an analyst meeting in December:

????There's no question that there are likely to be cycles in the emerging market areas. There are always questions of moving a little too fast, moving a little too slow. Having said that, when you look at the underlying trends, the secular change is real. And so if you think they're going to grow at 6%, well, maybe they don't. If they grow at the Fed's stress test of 4% or 5%, so what? At the end of the day, that's where the growth is, and so I think we're pretty well positioned to capture that.

????So even if the growth rate isn't stellar, it is bound to be better in China than in the U.S. or Europe. Having a toe in the Chinese market, however small, will be a net positive.

????Of course, growth in credit can end up reversing really fast if the economy tanks and people lose their jobs. The Chinese real estate market is thought to be in a bubble similar or worse than what the U.S. was in a few years ago. Meanwhile, a slowdown in Europe has taken a toll on China's export market. The Chinese tend to spend all cash on large items, but that's changing as the younger, post-Mao generations grow more comfortable with the idea of taking out loans and using plastic. A crash in housing could quickly spread to consumer credit cards, delivering a one-two punch to Citi's bottom line.

????It is unclear how big Citi will be allowed to get in China. The government keeps close tabs on the financial sector and holds up its national champions. But even a small sliver of this explosive market could mean a lot for Citi, especially if the government keeps other foreign players out of the market.