????隨著美國(guó)多項(xiàng)稅收優(yōu)惠政策將于2012年底到期,，“財(cái)稅浩劫”（taxmageddon）正在迅速迫近，身為美國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)的蒂莫西?蓋特納卻鎮(zhèn)定自若,。雖然在華盛頓也有很多人哀嘆或許在劫難逃,，但蓋特納的計(jì)劃卻是一步步解決問(wèn)題。

????“財(cái)稅浩劫”,，更直白的說(shuō)法是“財(cái)稅懸崖”,，指的是包括布什減稅在內(nèi)的美國(guó)很多稅收（優(yōu)惠）政策按原定計(jì)劃將于今年年底到期。這些政策累積數(shù)額高達(dá)5,000億美元,，約占美國(guó)GDP的3%,。如果美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)不采取行動(dòng)，由此自動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的增稅可能逆轉(zhuǎn)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程,，將美國(guó)重新拖入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,。

????蓋特納承認(rèn)，大部分增稅將出現(xiàn)在11月份的美國(guó)大選之后,，只給國(guó)會(huì)留下了約兩個(gè)月的時(shí)間來(lái)討論并通過(guò)補(bǔ)救方案,。但是，他似乎并不認(rèn)為這短短兩個(gè)月就將決定生死存亡,?！安槐胤堑迷诖筮x后的六周內(nèi)解決未來(lái)幾百年美國(guó)將要面臨的所有問(wèn)題，”他在加州聯(lián)邦俱樂(lè)部（Commonwealth Club）于舊金山主辦的一次活動(dòng)上演講時(shí)說(shuō),?！耙龅氖墙⑵鹉苋〉靡恍┻M(jìn)展的框架?！贝舜位顒?dòng)由《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）高級(jí)自由編輯亞當(dāng)?拉辛斯基主持,。

????同時(shí)，他表示,，奧巴馬政府在大選前的這幾個(gè)月里也一直在做很多“準(zhǔn)備”工作,，包括讓總統(tǒng)展開(kāi)媒體宣傳攻勢(shì)，闡釋財(cái)稅改革的作用機(jī)制（蓋特納本人近來(lái)也對(duì)媒體比較友好，為下周他與美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)卿希拉里?克林頓共同出訪中國(guó)做好準(zhǔn)備,，此行將與中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人探討經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題及面臨的挑戰(zhàn)）。

????批評(píng)人士認(rèn)為,，當(dāng)前行動(dòng)不力（比如,，替換自動(dòng)減稅措施或“削減支出”，這是去年夏季國(guó)會(huì)就已經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)實(shí)施的,，與此同時(shí)努力上調(diào)美國(guó)的負(fù)債上限）,，意味著將來(lái)需要進(jìn)行大量的工作。蓋特納的應(yīng)對(duì)之策是分步驟實(shí)施——首先,，調(diào)整財(cái)稅政策,，縮減開(kāi)支，“借此啟動(dòng)整個(gè)流程,，讓財(cái)稅改革產(chǎn)生一些長(zhǎng)期有益的節(jié)約,。”他說(shuō),，目標(biāo)包括提高聯(lián)邦醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃（Medicare）和醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助計(jì)劃（Medicaid）的可持續(xù)性發(fā)展能力,。

????蓋特納還將“財(cái)稅浩劫”置于更宏觀的美國(guó)財(cái)政背景下來(lái)考慮?！八⒉皇俏覀冏鳛橐粋€(gè)國(guó)家面臨的唯一挑戰(zhàn),，”他說(shuō)?！安荒芤源藶榻杩?，什么也不做?！彼f(shuō),，為未來(lái)做出改變，不應(yīng)損害對(duì)教育或基礎(chǔ)科研的投入,。

????不過(guò),，即便蓋特納盡量對(duì)“財(cái)稅浩劫”輕描淡寫(xiě)（雖然他同時(shí)也在強(qiáng)調(diào)其“重要性”），他承認(rèn)這個(gè)問(wèn)題足以可能擾亂民主當(dāng)和共和黨兩黨的關(guān)系,。他說(shuō)：“我認(rèn)為,，基本的現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況和簡(jiǎn)單的財(cái)務(wù)計(jì)算就足以引發(fā)這種局面?！?/p>

????譯者：早稻米

????In the face of the United States rapidly approaching so-called "taxmageddon," Timothy Geithner is calm. The Treasury Secretary's plan to avoid the colossal coming tax hikes, despite the end-of-days allusion popular with many in Washington, is to take things one step at a time.

????Taxmageddon, also known more plainly as the "fiscal cliff," refers to a slew of tax policies that are set to expire by the end of the year. These policies, which include the Bush tax cuts, add up to about $500 billion, or roughly 3% of the nation's gross domestic product. If congress fails to act, the automatic tax hikes could upend the economic recovery's progress, sending the country back into a recession.

????Stakes high, Geithner admitted that much of the heavy lifting would be done after the general election in November, giving congress roughly two months to agree on a fix. Still, Geithner doesn't seem to necessarily see the short time frame as do-or-die crunch time. "You don't need to solve all of a country's problems over the next hundred years in the six weeks after the election," he said, speaking at an event in San Francisco hosted by the Commonwealth Club, and moderated by Fortune senior editor-at-large Adam Lashinsky. "What you have to do is make sure you put in place a framework that makes some progress."

????In the meantime, he says, the Obama administration has been doing a lot of "up front" work in the months leading up to the election, including the having the president go on a press whirlwind explaining how the tax reforms would work. (Geithner himself has been press friendly of late, a prelude to his trip to China next week with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to discuss economic issues and challenges with that nation's leaders.)

????Critics say doing only a little now -- like replacing the automatic tax cuts, or "sequestration," that congress put in place last summer while trying to raise the nation's debt ceiling -- means leaving a lot of work down the road. Geithner's response is working in stages -- first making tax changes and spending cuts that correspond to the sequester, "and then set in motion the process that will allow tax reform to come alongside some sensible long-term savings," he said. Among those goals would be making Medicare and Medicaid more sustainable, he said.

????Geithner also put the taxmageddon situation into the context of the nation's larger fiscal landscape. "This is not the only challenge we are facing as a country," he said. "You cannot use that challenge as an excuse to do nothing for the economy now." Making changes for the future, he said, should not ravage funding in education or basic science and research.

????Still, though he downplayed the situation (while also emphasizing its "importance"), he acknowledged the issue is enough of a looming threat to rouse bipartisanship with Republicans. "I think the basic reality and the basic fiscal math is going to force them to that point," he said.