????為描述德國(guó)總理安吉拉?默克爾（Angela Merkel）和法國(guó)總統(tǒng)尼古拉斯?薩科齊（Nicolas Sarkozy）在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)期間為團(tuán)結(jié)歐洲所做的努力，媒體曾經(jīng)象征性地將二者聯(lián)姻,，戲稱這一對(duì)為“默科齊”（Merkozy）?，F(xiàn)在媒體同樣是揉和人名，創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)新詞,，用來悲觀地描述了默克爾和法國(guó)新任社會(huì)黨總統(tǒng)弗朗索瓦?奧朗德之間的關(guān)系。這個(gè)詞就是“默徳”（Merde）,。

????奧朗德將于5月16日正式上任,。他將是二戰(zhàn)以來第二位掌握法國(guó)大權(quán)的社會(huì)黨人士。他的想法既大膽又具有破壞性——例如通過向富人征稅來盤活法國(guó)財(cái)政,，以及通過雇用更多的政府雇員來降低失業(yè)率,。為此備感擔(dān)憂的人群不僅包括48%支持薩科齊的選民，還包括那些同時(shí)反對(duì)這兩位候選人,，因而拒絕投票的民眾,。相比較而言，市場(chǎng)似乎對(duì)奧朗德準(zhǔn)備在另一領(lǐng)域?qū)嵤┑挠?jì)劃更為不安——即他承諾領(lǐng)導(dǎo)一個(gè)“新歐洲”,。奧朗德在他的競(jìng)選活動(dòng)中聲稱,，“歐洲并不是由德國(guó)說了算”。他競(jìng)選主題的一個(gè)主要元素就是打著歐洲多個(gè)難兄難弟的旗號(hào)譴責(zé)德國(guó)的緊縮政策,。他甚至還斷言自己在當(dāng)選法國(guó)總統(tǒng)后的出訪第一站就要去柏林,，“重新談判”傾注了“默科齊”大量時(shí)間的財(cái)政契約。

????為了避免這樣尷尬的會(huì)面,，默克爾曾幫助薩科齊競(jìng)選,，而且在接下來的幾個(gè)月中，她也會(huì)忙得焦頭爛額,。奧朗德深知自己還有很長(zhǎng)一段路要走,。但是在這個(gè)過程中，他將認(rèn)識(shí)到,，無論他如何虛張聲勢(shì),，德國(guó)仍是大權(quán)在握,。德國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)遠(yuǎn)比法國(guó)健康，而且默克爾的支持率也很高,。雖然目前有人質(zhì)疑她的緊縮計(jì)劃,，但她迅速地將這一辭令改為“增長(zhǎng)契約”。緊縮計(jì)劃中的一些靈活性說不定該還真的有利于歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康——因?yàn)樵谖靼嘌肋@樣一些國(guó)家,，經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的幕后推手主要是房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格而不是國(guó)債,，而且這些國(guó)家迫切需要調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)。與此同時(shí),，這項(xiàng)歐洲緊縮試驗(yàn)若想獲得成功，實(shí)施某種形式的預(yù)算管制似乎是唯一可行的出路,。從政治角度來看,，默克爾采取這樣的立場(chǎng)毫不吃力，而奧朗德則比較困難,。

????隨著奧朗德開始其在法國(guó)國(guó)家政府的歷練,，他的雙鬢可能會(huì)變得比巴拉克?奧巴馬更花白。首先,，雖然他承諾法國(guó)將于2013年達(dá)到歐盟財(cái)政緊縮政策3%的赤字目標(biāo),，并在2017年底達(dá)到預(yù)算收支平衡，但他并沒有說明如何實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo),。同時(shí),，法國(guó)國(guó)債，即法國(guó)政府為了支付開支所借的貸款,，預(yù)計(jì)將于2013年底達(dá)到國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的90%,。而奧朗德曾表示2013年將是法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)回歸強(qiáng)勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)的年份。然而,，尤其鑒于英國(guó)和西班牙經(jīng)濟(jì)的二次探底,，大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)并不像奧朗德描繪的那么美好。

????由于法國(guó)與德國(guó)一道受困于歐元區(qū),，因此,，如果奧朗德希望獲得歐洲的主導(dǎo)權(quán)同時(shí)保留法國(guó)社會(huì)模式的精華部分，他的主要目標(biāo)應(yīng)該是提高法國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,。然而在這一點(diǎn)上,，他仍沒有拿出具體的方案。雖然法,、德兩國(guó)工人的生產(chǎn)力水平不相上下,，但是法國(guó)的出口市場(chǎng)一直在歐洲墊底。此外,，法國(guó)慷慨的社會(huì)福利也造成了勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的失調(diào),。工會(huì)和國(guó)家法律的過度保護(hù)使得企業(yè)難以解雇不合格的工人——這也意味著,，被開除的工人也能拿到由企業(yè)或國(guó)家發(fā)放的豐厚補(bǔ)助，某些情況下還能拿雙份,。奧朗德還希望將退休年齡調(diào)回60歲,。退休年齡從60歲推遲到62歲是薩科奇結(jié)構(gòu)性改革中唯一有意義的嘗試，因此奧朗德的這一想法似乎遙不可及,。

????"Merkozy" is what the press dubbed the symbolic marriage of fortune between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, describing their efforts to hold Europe together through economic crisis. Now a new portmanteau has been coined, mashing the names -- and pessimistically describing the relationship -- between Merkel and France's new socialist president, Francois Hollande, as "Merde."

????On May 16th, when Hollande is inaugurated, he will be only the second socialist to run the country since World War II. His promises are bold and disruptive -- including restoring France's budget by taxing the rich and reducing unemployment by hiring more government workers. This deeply worries the 48% of the French voters who cast a ballot for Sarkozy, or those who protested both candidates by refusing to vote at all. Markets, by contrast, seemed more troubled by Hollande's plans on another front -- his promises to lead a "New Europe." "Germany doesn't decide for all of Europe," Hollande proclaimed on the campaign trail. A major element of his campaign narrative has been to fight against German austerity on behalf of Europe's beleaguered economies. He has even asserted that his first French presidential trip will be to Berlin, to "renegotiate" the fiscal compact that took "Merkozy" so long to pass.

????Merkel, who offered to help Sarkozy campaign to avoid this uncomfortable meeting, will have her hands full over the next few months. Hollande knows he has a lot to prove. But what he's about to learn is that no matter his posturing, Germany still holds much of the power. Germany's economy remains significantly healthier than France's, and Merkel's approval ratings are high. Though her austerity programs are now in question, she's been quick to shift her own rhetoric to a "growth compact." Some flexibility with respect to austerity may actually be healthy for Europe -- certain countries, like Spain, have economic woes driven more by housing prices than national debt, and could desperately used a shift in focus toward growth. At the same time, however, some form of budget discipline appears to be the only sane path forward if the European experiment is to succeed. Politically, that's an easy stand to take for Merkel. It will be harder for Hollande.

????Hollande's hair may yet go whiter than Barack Obama's as he begins to collect experience in France's national government. First, though he promised that France will hit the 3% deficit target in the EU's fiscal compact in 2013 and will achieve a balanced budget by 2017, he hasn't explained how he will do this. Meanwhile, France's public debt, the amount of money borrowed by the French government to pay its bills, is projected to reach 90% of GDP by 2013. This is the year that Hollande says France will return to strong growth. But particularly with the U.K. and Spain in a double-dip recession, most economic forecasts aren't as rosy as Hollande's.

????Locked into the euro alongside Germany, Hollande's main goal, if he wants to lead Europe and preserve the best parts of France's social model, should be to increase French competitiveness. Again, he has yet to lay out a specific plan. Although worker productivity is similar in Germany and France, the French export market is among the weakest in Europe. Further, France's generous welfare state has led to a dysfunctional labor market, where excessive protection by labor unions and state laws make it hard for incompetent workers to be fired -- and mean that even those who are fired wind up getting paid off handsomely by either their company, the state, or in some cases both. Hollande's idea to rollback the retirement age to 60, after Sarkozy pushed it to 62 in one of his only meaningful attempts at structural reform, seems wildly out of touch.