?????克萊采爾稱：“恰恰相反,，最大的危險在于，消費者可能擔心石油供應將會中斷,，于是為了自保,，紛紛大量囤積。而這種囤積行為,，將導致石油價格在大事件發(fā)生之前便開始暴漲,。”

????如果發(fā)生那種情況,，即便需求相對較小幅度的增長,，也會導致價格激增，而原因還是由于產(chǎn)能不足,。但反過來也同樣成立：即使產(chǎn)能有相對較小幅度的增長,，也會為市場提供緩沖。而解決方案便是鼓勵產(chǎn)油國加大開采力度,，其中最佳目標便是美國,。克萊采爾表示：“2008年,，如果產(chǎn)能額外增加50萬桶,，油價也就不會有如此大幅度的上漲?！?/p>

????目前,，市場的不穩(wěn)定性已經(jīng)達到了極限，而在石油儲量最豐富的地區(qū),，每日騷亂不斷,。面臨這些威脅，只有幫助提高美國的石油產(chǎn)量才是關(guān)鍵,。不論說的多么好聽,，其實在經(jīng)濟學上的道理非常簡單：增加石油產(chǎn)量對美國意義重大。

????譯者：阿龍/汪皓

????"On the contrary," says Kreutzer, "the big danger is that customers will that fear oil supplies will be cut off, so they start storing big volumes of oil to protect themselves. All that buying causes an explosion in prices well before any big event happens."

????In that case, even a relatively small jump in demand could cause a sharp spike in prices––once again, because capacity is so tight. But the reverse is also true: A relatively small amount of new capacity could provide a crucial shock absorber. The solution is to encourage the producers to sink more wells and open new fields, and the best candidate is the U.S. "Even the addition of 500,000 barrels of extra capacity in 2008 would have prevented the price from spiking nearly so much," says Kreutzer.

????Hence, measures that help raise output in the U.S. are a crucial safeguard against the threat we're facing today, a volatile mix of a market stretched to the limit, and the daily reports of turmoil in the most oil-rich regions on the planet. The rhetoric is dizzying, but the economics are clear: More drilling makes sense for America.