????航空業(yè)的崩潰總是會(huì)讓普京回想起俄羅斯混亂的90年代,。當(dāng)時(shí)俄羅斯從一個(gè)貨真價(jià)實(shí)的全球強(qiáng)國(guó)一夜衰落成一個(gè)由暴徒和無(wú)能政客領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的二流國(guó)家。2005年,，普京把俄羅斯各大飛機(jī)制造商合并成一個(gè)控股公司,，由俄羅斯政府作為控股方。為了讓航空業(yè)再次崛起,，俄羅斯政府已經(jīng)為這個(gè)行業(yè)注入了數(shù)十億美元的資金,，目標(biāo)是要在2025年前銷售出價(jià)值2,500億美元的飛機(jī)。

????蘇霍伊超級(jí)100支線客機(jī)于去年4月進(jìn)入民航領(lǐng)域,，它的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手主要是巴西航空工業(yè)公司（Embrarer）和龐巴迪公司（Bombardier）的支線客機(jī),。這架飛機(jī)是在俄羅斯設(shè)計(jì)制造的，但它的許多關(guān)鍵部件卻是由泰雷斯（Thales）,、古德里奇（Goodrich）和漢尼韋爾（Honeywell）等外國(guó)供應(yīng)商設(shè)計(jì)的,，相當(dāng)于拿到了一張西方的合格證,。蘇霍伊甚至聘請(qǐng)了波音公司作為顧問(wèn),，雖然波音很可能不會(huì)在這款飛機(jī)的生產(chǎn)中發(fā)揮多大實(shí)際作用。

????盡管這款客機(jī)的售價(jià)只有3,000萬(wàn)美元左右,，但卻并未吸引買家蜂擁定購(gòu),，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)確定的訂單只有170架,，離俄方希望的1,000架的銷量還差得很遠(yuǎn)。這次亞洲六國(guó)巡展本來(lái)是想為這款支線客機(jī)造點(diǎn)聲勢(shì),，但結(jié)果顯然適得其反,。

????如果蘇霍伊100真的獲得了成功，這當(dāng)然是件好事,，但它的地位還是趕不上伊爾庫(kù)特公司（Irkut）的MS-21客機(jī),。這款飛機(jī)于去年秋天推出，預(yù)計(jì)將于2017年投入服務(wù),。它瞄準(zhǔn)的是民航業(yè)最有利可圖的單通道中小型客機(jī),。目前這個(gè)市場(chǎng)主要被波音737和空客320所主宰，不過(guò)這兩款飛機(jī)的設(shè)計(jì)已經(jīng)有幾十年沒有大改過(guò)了,。從一個(gè)例子就能看出這個(gè)市場(chǎng)對(duì)飛機(jī)制造商有多重要：波音737客機(jī)為波音創(chuàng)造的營(yíng)業(yè)收入占到了該公司民航客機(jī)總收入的40%,，利潤(rùn)更超過(guò)了全公司利潤(rùn)的一半以上。據(jù)波音公司預(yù)計(jì),，單通道客機(jī)的產(chǎn)值在未來(lái)20年里將達(dá)到將近2萬(wàn)億美元,，其中半數(shù)以上的需求來(lái)自亞洲。

????美國(guó)和西歐的民航市場(chǎng)以及許多國(guó)際知名航空公司顯然已經(jīng)是波音和空客的囊中物了,，即便這樣,，在世界其它地區(qū)，留給俄羅斯的蛋糕仍然很大,。首先俄羅斯人瞄準(zhǔn)了自己的國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng),，目前俄羅斯國(guó)內(nèi)75%的民航客機(jī)都是外國(guó)制造的。普京已經(jīng)清楚地表示,，既然俄羅斯的民航客機(jī)已經(jīng)再度投產(chǎn),，那俄羅斯的航空公司就應(yīng)當(dāng)購(gòu)買國(guó)產(chǎn)客機(jī)。再加上俄羅斯周邊還有一些前蘇聯(lián)盟國(guó)和衛(wèi)星國(guó),，因此俄制客機(jī)是有現(xiàn)成的市場(chǎng)的,。盡管發(fā)生了這起墜機(jī)事件，那些客戶還是會(huì)購(gòu)買俄制飛機(jī),。

????Putin saw the collapse of the aircraft industry as a reminder of the chaotic 1990s, when Russia slipped from being a true world power to a country run by mobsters and incompetent politicians. In 2005, he merged all of the nation's various aircraft manufacturers into one holding company, with the Russian government as the controlling shareholder. The state would now pump billions into the industry to get it going again. The goal was to sell $250 billion worth of aircraft by 2025.

????The Sukoi 100 entered commercial service in April of last year and competes mostly with regional jet makers like Embrarer and Bombardier. The plane was built and designed in Russia but many of its major parts were designed by foreign suppliers such as Thales, Goodrich (GR) and Honeywell (HON), putting a western seal of approval on the airplane. It even hired Boeing as a consultant, though it most likely was not a big player in the production of the aircraft.

????But despite the jet's competitive price point of around $30 million, buyers have not been forthcoming, with firm commitments secured for only 170 jets. That falls far short of the 1000 jets the Russians had hoped to sell. The Asian tour was supposed to provide a boost to the regional jet's sales, but that has clearly nosedived.

????Yet while the success of the Sukhoi 100 would have been nice, it isn't as important as the launch of Irkut's MS-21. Announced last fall and scheduled to be in service by 2017, the jet would target the lucrative and most profitable part of the airline industry – the single-aisle class. Today, the market is dominated by Boeing's 737 and Airbus' A320, which haven't undergone a radical design change in decades. To get an idea of how important this market is for the jet makers, Boeing's 737 aircraft accounts for around 40% of the jet maker's commercial aviation revenue and well over half of its profits. Boeing estimates that the single-aisle market will be worth nearly $2 trillion over the next 20 years, with over half of that demand coming from Asia.

????Boeing and Airbus clearly have a lock on the U.S. and Western European markets, as well as many established international carriers, but the rest of the world is up for grabs. The Russians are first targeting their own domestic market, where 75% of the aircraft are currently foreign-made. Putin has in no uncertain terms made it clear that Russian airlines should be buying Russian-made jets, now that they are again in production. Along with the former Soviet states and its satellites, the Russian aircraft industry has a built in market. Even with the crash, those customers will be buying Russian.