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摩根大通會(huì)因“倫敦鯨”而“洗大澡”嗎?

摩根大通會(huì)因“倫敦鯨”而“洗大澡”嗎,?

Stephen Gandel 2012-06-21
所謂的“洗大澡”是一個(gè)會(huì)計(jì)術(shù)語(yǔ),,是指為了讓后期業(yè)績(jī)更好看而夸大當(dāng)期虧損的會(huì)計(jì)手段。摩根大通會(huì)不會(huì)因?yàn)椤皞惗伥L”交易虧損而在接下來(lái)的業(yè)績(jī)報(bào)告中來(lái)個(gè)“洗大澡”呢,?

????“摩根大通總能想出法子讓業(yè)績(jī)看起來(lái)相對(duì)比較樂(lè)觀,,”羅奇代爾證券(Rochdale Securities)的分析師理查德?博韋說(shuō),,“他們可以利用多種利潤(rùn)源來(lái)降低虧損?!?/p>

????許多分析師卻認(rèn)為摩根大通的交易虧損可能大于預(yù)期,。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)銀行分析師貝琪?格拉塞克最近估計(jì),“倫敦鯨”事件引起的損失可能達(dá)到70億美元之多,。摩根大通下個(gè)月即將公布第二財(cái)季的業(yè)績(jī),。分析師們預(yù)測(cè)該行第二財(cái)季每股收益為0.86美元,約合凈利潤(rùn)33億美元,。而在“倫敦鯨”虧損公布前,,分析師們的預(yù)期為每股收益1.24美元,合凈利潤(rùn)47億美元,。

????但是這段時(shí)間以來(lái),,歐洲和美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景惡化,,這也可能導(dǎo)致分析師下調(diào)了對(duì)摩根大通的收益預(yù)期。投資公司Evercore的銀行分析師安德魯?馬奎德說(shuō),,關(guān)于“倫敦鯨”虧損交易的情況,,摩根大通公布的信息還不夠,所以仍然無(wú)法估計(jì)這個(gè)虧損的窟窿到底有多大,。他說(shuō):“現(xiàn)在大家都是在猜測(cè)而已,。”

????譯者:默默

????"JPMorgan always finds a way to manage their earnings to get a relatively positive result," says Richard Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Securities. "There are multiple sources of income they could use to blunt the losses."

????A number of analysts have taken the stance that JPMorgan's trading loss could be larger than expected. Morgan Stanley bank analyst Betsy Graseck recently estimated the hit from the London Whale to be as large as $7 billion. The bank will report quarterly results next month, and analysts are predicting JPMorgan will earn $0.86 a share in the second quarter, or roughly $3.3 billion. That's down from an estimate of $1.24 a share, or $4.7 billion before the London Whale's losses were announced.

????But during that time the outlook for Europe and the U.S. economy has worsened as well, potentially contributing to the lower expectations for JPMorgan's earnings. Bank analyst Andrew Marquardt of Evercore says JPMorgan has yet to release enough information about the exact London Whale trades to make an estimate of how large the losses are. "It's complete speculation," he says.

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