????對(duì)美國(guó)的住宅建筑商來(lái)說(shuō),，過(guò)去五年日子很不好過(guò)。房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)崩盤(pán)之后,，他們的敵人包括：積壓過(guò)多的庫(kù)存,、一再下跌的房?jī)r(jià),、滿目瘡痍的經(jīng)濟(jì)和急劇收縮的需求。

????不過(guò),，看起來(lái)現(xiàn)在他們已卷土重來(lái)，聲勢(shì)逼人。

????新房建設(shè)訂單的猛增,、抵押貸款利率的低下、房產(chǎn)庫(kù)存的顯著下降以及住宅價(jià)格的回升都助長(zhǎng)了股東們的樂(lè)觀情緒,。瑞銀分析師（UBS）戴維?戈德博格指出,，2012年來(lái)住宅建筑商的股價(jià)已平均上漲了49%,，人人都在期待大復(fù)蘇的出現(xiàn)。有些建筑商的股價(jià)漲幅更大,，比如標(biāo)準(zhǔn)太平洋公司（Standard Pacific）幾乎翻了一番，霍夫納尼安公司（Hovnanian）大漲了70%.

????可是,，戈德博格擔(dān)心復(fù)蘇行情是否已經(jīng)體現(xiàn)在股價(jià)之中,?！按祟?lèi)股票中已經(jīng)體現(xiàn)了很多預(yù)期，超過(guò)了形勢(shì)發(fā)展的可能性和盈利,、增長(zhǎng)方面的潛力，”他說(shuō),。盡管如此,，他相信房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)已經(jīng)觸底,，房?jī)r(jià)已開(kāi)始上漲。

????2007年房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始崩盤(pán)以來(lái),，市場(chǎng)觀察人士不是第一次預(yù)測(cè)行業(yè)反彈了。出于類(lèi)似的反彈預(yù)期,，建筑商2010年也曾有過(guò)一波上漲行情，但春日銷(xiāo)售旺季業(yè)績(jī)不佳,，而且稅務(wù)優(yōu)惠項(xiàng)目到期后復(fù)蘇未能實(shí)現(xiàn),，因此同年秋季投資者又開(kāi)始拋售,。

????不過(guò),，兩方面的支撐表明最新這一輪反彈可能會(huì)持續(xù)下去：訂單量連續(xù)數(shù)月增長(zhǎng)及房?jī)r(jià)上漲,。作為反映需求和住宅建筑商未來(lái)收入的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)，訂單量去年第三季度開(kāi)始增長(zhǎng),，自此以來(lái)每個(gè)季度都有穩(wěn)健上漲,。據(jù)總部設(shè)在德州艾爾帕索的獨(dú)立房地產(chǎn)調(diào)研公司住房研究中心有限公司（Housing Research Center LLC）的創(chuàng)始人兼高級(jí)研究分析師亞歷克斯?拜倫稱(chēng),，2011年第三季度平均漲幅達(dá)12%，第四季度達(dá)14%,，2012年第一季度則高達(dá)23%,，第二季度甚至有望達(dá)到30%。

????有些住宅建筑商最近一個(gè)季度所獲訂單的增幅更加可觀：萊納（Lennar）訂單量增長(zhǎng)40%,，Meritage多拿了49%的訂單,，霍夫納尼安更實(shí)現(xiàn)了52%的漲幅。

????需求增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí),，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的基本面似乎也在復(fù)蘇,。事實(shí)上，導(dǎo)致過(guò)去五年里房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)一蹶不振的未售出住宅問(wèn)題很大程度上已經(jīng)解決,，庫(kù)存回到了更為正常的水平,。惠譽(yù)評(píng)級(jí)（Fitch Ratings）常務(wù)董事鮑勃?庫(kù)蘭指出,，相比2007年的最高位,，市場(chǎng)上新的未售出住宅數(shù)量減少了71%,，已建成未售住宅的供給也萎縮了32%,。

????那么，在經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然如此不景氣的情況下,，什么原因?qū)е聨?kù)存減少、房地產(chǎn)需求上漲呢,？首先,，住房抵押貸款的利率維持在或者接近歷史性低位，吸引觀望派躍入市場(chǎng),。其次,，近幾年公寓樓租金的上漲促使一些租房者重新考慮買(mǎi)房。第三,，希望靠日益上漲的租金獲利的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者開(kāi)始大舉買(mǎi)入止贖法拍屋,，以大額折扣買(mǎi)入這些住宅后返租給它們的原主人,，而不是轉(zhuǎn)賣(mài)出手謀求迅速獲利。

????拜倫說(shuō)：“他們正大批買(mǎi)進(jìn)止贖屋,，拉斯維加斯和鳳凰城等地過(guò)去遍地都是止贖屋,，可如今若你想在MLS房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)系統(tǒng)上找一套，只能碰運(yùn)氣,。就算真能找到，也會(huì)有20個(gè)人同時(shí)在競(jìng)價(jià),?！?/p>

????就連房?jī)r(jià)也開(kāi)始回升了,。房地產(chǎn)公司Zillow本周發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告顯示，第二季度房?jī)r(jià)上漲了0.2%,，這是2007年以來(lái)的首次季度增長(zhǎng)。鳳凰城,、邁阿密,、丹佛和圣何塞的同比漲幅最大,，分別上漲了12.1%、6.4%,、3.5%和3.4%.

????根據(jù)凱斯席勒（Case-Shiller）房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)，主要市場(chǎng)的房?jī)r(jià)仍維持在2003年的水平,。戈德博格說(shuō)：“從2003年的水平出發(fā),，有希望實(shí)現(xiàn)相當(dāng)強(qiáng)勁的反彈?！?/p>

????對(duì)美國(guó)規(guī)模最大的那些住宅建筑商來(lái)說(shuō),，這些都是好消息,。根據(jù)全美住房建筑商協(xié)會(huì)（the National Association of Home Builders，NAHB）的統(tǒng)計(jì),，6月份新屋開(kāi)工數(shù)環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)了6.9%，同比增長(zhǎng)了24%,，季調(diào)后年化數(shù)據(jù)為76萬(wàn)套,，實(shí)現(xiàn)了2008年10月以來(lái)的最大幅度增長(zhǎng)。高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析師約書(shū)亞?波拉德本周將他對(duì)住房建筑商的評(píng)級(jí)從“中性”上調(diào)至“富有吸引力”,，并預(yù)測(cè)新屋開(kāi)工數(shù)將于2013年攀升至100萬(wàn)套，2015年增長(zhǎng)至140萬(wàn)套,。

????瑞銀分析師戈德博格稱(chēng),，瞄準(zhǔn)欲改善性住房的買(mǎi)家、且負(fù)債較少的建筑商有望獲得最高的利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)和股價(jià)反彈,。他還說(shuō)，負(fù)債較高的建筑商,，比如KB Home,、Beazer和霍夫納尼安的債務(wù)水平介于市值的77-186%,，它們反彈速度可能會(huì)慢一些。

????當(dāng)然,，如果美國(guó)陷入二次衰退，或者利率大幅上漲,，所有反彈都會(huì)成為鏡花水月,。不過(guò)庫(kù)蘭認(rèn)為,，哪怕真的出現(xiàn)這種情況,，也應(yīng)該讓房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)自己走出困境，而不需要政府進(jìn)一步干涉,，或者推出新的刺激計(jì)劃。

????“我們必須清理市場(chǎng)的爛攤子,，盡管這可能頗為痛苦,，但總好過(guò)一再拖延——很多止贖法拍方面的政策就是這樣,，可它們只是延緩了止贖,，”他說(shuō)?！斑@使市場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)期陷于泥淖,，比不干涉的情況更惡劣?！?/p>

????譯者：小宇

????It's been a rough five years for the nation's homebuilders. Following the housing crash, they battled inventory gluts, tumbling home prices, a decimated economy, and a sharp pullback in demand.

????But it appears they're back. Big time.

????A surge in new home orders, low mortgage rates, a significant drop-off in housing inventory, and an uptick in home prices are fueling shareholder optimism. Shares of homebuilding stocks have surged 49% on average in 2012 in anticipation of the big rebound, according to UBS analyst David Goldberg. Some builder stocks have soared even higher, such as Standard Pacific (SPF), which has almost doubled in price, and Hovnanian, which is up 70%.

????But Goldberg wonders if the rebound is now priced into the stocks. "There's a lot priced into the group now that is in excess of how things are going to play out in earnings potential and growth," he says. Still, he believes the sector has bottomed and home prices are moving up.

????This isn't the first time market watchers have predicted an industry rebound since the housing crash began in 2007. Builders rallied in 2010 over similar rebound expectations, but sold off by the fall of that year when the spring selling season flopped and the recovery failed to materialize after a tax-credit program expired.

????But this latest rebound has two things going for it that may make it stick: Multiple months of order growth, and rising home prices. Orders -- a key metric that reflects demand and future revenue for homebuilders -- turned positive in the third quarter of 2011 and have been steadily rising every quarter since then. They rose 12% on average in the 2011 third quarter, 14% in the fourth quarter, 23% in the 2012 first quarter, and are on track to be up 30% in the second quarter, according to Alex Barron, founder and senior research analyst at Housing Research Center LLC, an independent housing research firm in El Paso.

????Some individual homebuilders have reported even higher orders in the latest quarter: Lennar (LEN) saw orders spike 40%, Meritage (MTH) 49% and Hovnanian (HOV) 52%.

????The uptick in demand comes as housing fundamentals appear to be recovering. Indeed, the glut of unsold homes that caused havoc in the market over the past five years has largely dissipated to more normal levels. The number of new unsold homes on the market is down 71% from its 2007 peak while the supply of existing unsold homes has shrunk 32%, says Fitch Ratings Managing Director Bob Curran.

????So, what's caused inventory to shrink and housing demand to increase when the economy has been so rocky? First, mortgage rates have remained at or near historic lows, making it attractive for fence-sitters to jump into the market. Second, the surge in rents at apartment buildings in recent years has caused renters to start moving back into the homeownership arena. Third, institutional investors, wanting to cash in on rising rental rates, have started gobbling up foreclosed homes at fire sale prices and then renting the homes back to the foreclosed owners rather than flipping them for a quick profit.

????"They're buying foreclosures in bulk," says Barron. "Places like Vegas and Phoenix that used to be flooded with foreclosures – if you try to find one on the MLS, good luck, and even if you find one, there will be 20 offers on it."

????Even pricing is starting to recover. A report by real estate firm Zillow this week showed prices rose 0.2% in the second quarter - the first quarterly increase since 2007. Phoenix, Miami, Denver and San Jose saw the biggest year-over-year gains, where prices rose 12.1%, 6.4%, 3.5% and 3.4% respectively.

????Home prices in major markets are currently at 2003 levels, according to Case-Shiller. "At 2003 levels, there is the potential for a really robust rebound," says Goldberg.

????All this bodes well for the country's largest homebuilders. Housing starts climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 760,000 units in June – up 6.9% from May and up 24% from a year ago - its fastest pace of new construction since October 2008, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Goldman Sachs analyst Joshua Pollard, who raised his rating on homebuilders to 'Attractive' from 'Neutral' this week, is predicting housing starts will climb to 1 million in 2013 and 1.4 million in 2015.

????Homebuilders that cater to move-up buyers and have low debt stand to see the biggest earnings growth and stock rebound, says UBS's Goldberg. Builders with higher debt, such as KB Home (KBH), Beazer (BZH), and Hovnanian whose debt levels range from 77% to 186% of market cap, will likely see a slower rebound, he says.

????Of course, all rebound bets are off though if the country heads into a double-dip recession or interest rates surge. But even if this happens, Curran says it's time to allow the housing sector to sort itself out without further government intervention and incentive programs.

????"We need to go through the cleansing process, and as painful as that might be, it's better than delaying and delaying, which is what a lot of these foreclosure initiatives did – it just delayed foreclosures," he says. "This led to a market in distress longer than it should have been."