????歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)的管理層現(xiàn)在一定覺得收購英國宇航系統(tǒng)公司是獲得美國軍方大單最簡(jiǎn)單和最有效的方法。雖然這筆交易能夠幫助實(shí)現(xiàn)收入平衡,，并獲得重要的美國市場(chǎng)機(jī)會(huì),，人們?nèi)匀粨?dān)憂在各國政府都削減軍費(fèi)開支的情況下，歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)為何還要收購一家單一業(yè)務(wù)的防務(wù)公司,。市場(chǎng)也有類似顧慮,，周三歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)的股價(jià)下跌了6%. 難道歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)不知道政府開支削減或者財(cái)政懸崖嗎？（如果兩黨不能就國債和預(yù)算達(dá)成協(xié)議）,，明年一月軍事預(yù)算可能被自動(dòng)削減5%到10%,，為什么要在這個(gè)時(shí)候硬擠進(jìn)美國市場(chǎng)？

????眼光需要放長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)一點(diǎn),。對(duì)歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)來說,，在美國國防預(yù)算中分得一杯羹，即使預(yù)算縮減,，即使份額不大,，也好過歐洲本土市場(chǎng)的慘淡。因?yàn)楹兔绹煌?，歐洲想要削減防務(wù)開支時(shí)總是說到做到,。舉個(gè)例子，歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)的防務(wù)部門凱希典公司（Cassidian）在歐元危機(jī)深化前的2009年獲得83億歐元訂單,。而在接下來的兩年訂單減半,，2010年為43億歐元，2011年僅為42億歐元,。

????今年美國的軍事預(yù)算為7,110億美元,。即使開支自動(dòng)削減真的發(fā)生，明年一月預(yù)算從今年的水平下降15%,，防務(wù)預(yù)算仍然高達(dá)6,040億美元,，大約是法國和德國今年（軍事）預(yù)算之和的5.5倍。

????所以大家都很清楚，即使開支削減的幅度史無前例,，美國的軍事預(yù)算仍然是一筆大生意,。但歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)能分到這塊大蛋糕嗎？美國軍方是否愿意讓這家德法公司替代某家主要供應(yīng)商,，這還是個(gè)問題,。雖然英國宇航系統(tǒng)公司來自英國，并非本土公司,，但美軍和英軍的密切關(guān)系可以追溯到第一次世界大戰(zhàn),。兩者的盟友關(guān)系在二戰(zhàn)期間進(jìn)一步得到鞏固，一直到現(xiàn)在都非常牢固,，最近兩軍還在阿富汗和伊拉克緊密合作,。雖然德法兩國也是北約成員，美軍與法軍或德軍的關(guān)系就只是泛泛之交而已,。歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)在新聞稿中暗示,，公司會(huì)采取必要的措施將英國宇航系統(tǒng)公司的美國業(yè)務(wù)分割開來，但人們?nèi)匀粦岩伤欠褡阋源蛳儡姷囊蓱],，同意這筆收購,。

????就算軍方松口，歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)仍然需要說服那些來自其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的地盤的議員,。公司需要向議員證明,，歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)并未得到德法政府的補(bǔ)貼，并未通過削價(jià)獲得和美國公司不公平競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的優(yōu)勢(shì),?？紤]到和空客之間在商業(yè)航空領(lǐng)域的血海深仇，波音公司顯然不喜歡歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán),。CEO吉姆?邁克納尼昨天告訴記者,，波音不會(huì)受到歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)和英國宇航系統(tǒng)公司 合并的威脅。話雖如此,，如果有可能的話,，他一定希望這次合并泡湯。在超大型客機(jī)和單通道客機(jī)方面,，空客正在侵吞波音的市場(chǎng),，所以波音一點(diǎn)都不想看到歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)再來搶奪美國軍方的大合同。

????這筆交易所牽涉到的主要各方是否準(zhǔn)備為其大開綠燈呢,？答案并不清楚,。（除了美方，）還需要得到與兩家公司有業(yè)務(wù)來往的主要國家軍方的同意,，其中包括但不限于：沙特阿拉伯,、澳大利亞,、西班牙以及英國（這一點(diǎn)很明顯）。（但愿）歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)在昨天宣布交易前已經(jīng)獲得德法兩國政府的支持,。但考慮到交易后兩國在歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)的股份會(huì)被稀釋,，也許在美國有機(jī)會(huì)做決定之前，巴黎和柏林政府就已經(jīng)否決這筆交易了,。

????Well, it is all perspective. For EADS, a piece of the US defense budget, even a small piece of a shrinking pie, is better than the markets back home in Europe. That's because, unlike in the U.S., when the Europeans want to cut defense spending, they actually do it. For example, Cassidia, the defense arm of EADS, had 8.3 billion euros in orders in 2009 before the euro crisis started to get bad. In 2010 and 2011, orders were sliced in half, with 4.3 billion euros in 2010 and 4.2 billion euros in 2011.

????Now consider that the US military budget this year is $711 billion. Say that sequestration actually happens and the budget is cut by 15% in January from this year's level. That would mean that the defense budget would still be $604 billion – around five and half times what France and Germany's budget are this year, combined.

????So it is pretty clear that even with the deepest cuts there is a lot of money out there. But can EADS ever grab a piece of that big American military pie? It is questionable as to whether the US military will be comfortable allowing a Franco-German conglomerate to take over one of its major suppliers. While BAE is a British firm, and clearly foreign, the US military has a much stronger relationship with the British Armed forces going back all the way to WWI. That relationship was cemented in WWII and has been relatively strong ever since, serving closely in both Afghanistan and Iraq. The US military just doesn't have that sort of relationship with the French or German military, despite the fact that they are all in NATO. EADS alluded in its release that it would take necessary steps to ring-fence BAE's operations in the US, but it's highly doubtful that would be enough for the US military to sign off on the agreement.

????But say the military does sign off; EADS would then have to sweet talk a lot of congressmen in a lot of districts where its competitors do business. It will need to convince lawmakers that it doesn't receive subsidies from the French and German governments, which would allow EADS to undercut US aerospace firms unfairly. Boeing clearly has no love for EADS given the blood feud between them in commercial aviation. Jim McNerney, Boeing's chief executive, told reporters yesterday that his company wasn't threatened by a potential EADS/BAE tie-up. While he might not be threatened, he most surely would like to avoid it if possible. Airbus is eating Boeing's lunch in both the superjumbo and single-aisle aircraft divisions – the last thing it needs is EADS taking swiping some of its big US military contracts.

????It is unclear if any of the major constituencies involved in this deal are ready to give it the green light. The militaries of every major country that does business with either company will need to sign off on the deal, including, but not limited to, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Spain and, of course, the UK. EADS (hopefully) had already secured the support of the French and German governments before the deal was announced yesterday. But given how their stake in EADS would be diluted in the merger, it may be Paris and Berlin that end up crushing this deal before the US ever gets a chance to see it.