????德阿凡尼認(rèn)為,，在不對(duì)外公布的情況下,，五年內(nèi)取消對(duì)美國(guó)科技產(chǎn)品的進(jìn)口，或至少部分產(chǎn)品,，將是中國(guó)可能采取的方式之一,。另外一種方式，則是提高美國(guó)科技業(yè)賴以生存的中國(guó)造集成電路的價(jià)格,。令人好奇的是,，美國(guó)科技界對(duì)此次美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)報(bào)告竟然保持沉默。數(shù)個(gè)行業(yè)貿(mào)易團(tuán)體要么拒絕對(duì)報(bào)告進(jìn)行評(píng)論,，要么拒絕接受采訪,。德阿凡尼認(rèn)為，為華為和中興辯護(hù)可能會(huì)讓美國(guó)科技公司留下不愛國(guó)的負(fù)面形象,。與此同時(shí),，反對(duì)華為和中興又會(huì)激怒他們的中國(guó)供應(yīng)商、合伙人和客戶,。他補(bǔ)充道：“他們現(xiàn)在最保險(xiǎn)的做法就是保持沉默,，但在幕后，卻要為保住供應(yīng)商而四處游說?！?/p>

????實(shí)際上,，由于兩國(guó)之間的相互依賴性，目前的形勢(shì)非常復(fù)雜,。完全中斷貿(mào)易幾乎不太可能,。中國(guó)需要美國(guó)的技術(shù)，保持其基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和工廠繼續(xù)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn),。與此同時(shí),，美國(guó)的科技制造商則依賴中國(guó)生產(chǎn)的組件。兩國(guó)之間不可能做到?jīng)芪挤置?，一款產(chǎn)品的原產(chǎn)地通常只限于語(yǔ)義學(xué)上的概念,。比如，蘋果公司（Apple）的iPhone和iPad大部分都是在中國(guó)組裝,。這種相互協(xié)作,、彼此受益的情況同樣存在于美國(guó)的電信設(shè)備制造商。但美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)的調(diào)查卻對(duì)這種聯(lián)系的安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)視而不見,。

????加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校的唐教授稱,，是政治導(dǎo)致了形勢(shì)的進(jìn)一步激化。中美兩國(guó)都處于選擇下一任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻,。兩國(guó)的政治派別都在利用貿(mào)易摩擦來爭(zhēng)取民眾支持,。唐說：“目前的時(shí)機(jī)有點(diǎn)尷尬?！彼忉尩?，未來的貿(mào)易談判肯定會(huì)提到這個(gè)話題。但在新任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人上臺(tái)之前,，中國(guó)方面肯定不會(huì)采取明確的措施,。屆時(shí)，中國(guó)新任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人肯定會(huì)說“這是美國(guó)反對(duì)中國(guó)的又一個(gè)陰謀,，我們必須采取行動(dòng),。”

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????Eliminating U.S. tech imports in five years, or at least some of them -- without ever publicly announcing such a plan -- is one way, D'Aveni said. Another is to raise the price for Chinese-made integrated circuits, on which the U.S. technology industry depends. Curiously silent on the report is the U.S. technology industry. Several industry trade groups declined to comment or failed to respond to messages seeking an interview.

????Defending Huawei and ZTE risks branding U.S. tech companies as unpatriotic, D'Aveni said. Meanwhile, siding against them would antagonize their Chinese suppliers, partners and customers. "Their best move is to stay silent, but behind the scenes, lobby for supplies," he added.

????Indeed, the situation is complicated by the interdependence of both nations. Cutting off trade is nearly impossible. China needs U.S. technology to keep its infrastructure and factories operating. Meanwhile, U.S. tech manufacturers depend on Chinese components. The lines are so blurry that a product's origin is often a matter of semantics. Apple's (AAPL) iPhones and iPads, for example, are largely assembled in China. Similar cross-pollination is the norm for U.S. telecommunications equipment makers. Congressional investigators, however, did not look at any security risks created by such ties.

????U.C.L.A. professor Tang said that politics are helping to inflame the situation. China and the U.S. are in the process of selecting new presidents. Political forces from both countries are using the trade disagreement to drum up support. "The timing is a bit awkward," Tang said. The topic will undoubtedly come up in future trade negotiations, he explained. But there won't be any definitive move from China until it has a new leader, who will inevitably "say there's a conspiracy -- that the U.S. is against China -- and we need to do x, y and z."