????隨著中國經(jīng)濟減速，很多人開始擔(dān)憂,，這個世界第二大經(jīng)濟體創(chuàng)紀錄的增長是否已接近尾聲,。中國國家統(tǒng)計局(the National Bureau of Statistics)上周發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)稱，最近一個季度,，中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長7.4%,，增長勢頭良好。但同時可以看到的是,，增速已連續(xù)第七個季度下滑,。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們普遍都預(yù)計到了這樣的狀況，但仍有理由相信中國經(jīng)濟放緩勢頭不會持久,，至少不會像一些人預(yù)計的那么嚴重,。

????鑒于中國經(jīng)濟的好壞直接影響到美國和世界其他地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟增長,，這一話題如今顯得特別重要。在美國總統(tǒng)大選第三場辯論,，也是最后一場辯論中,，我們看到了這一話題的意義重大。大多數(shù)人原本以為會在辯論中聽到總統(tǒng)候選人痛斥中國,，但這一幕并未出現(xiàn)?；蛟S奧巴馬和羅姆尼已意識到,，中國經(jīng)濟的崛起對于美國可能利大于弊。

????中國的經(jīng)濟增長在上海,、北京等大城市或許已見頂,。但舊金山聯(lián)邦儲備銀行（San Francisco Federal Reserve）的兩位經(jīng)濟學(xué)家稱，在中國看起來無限廣闊的農(nóng)村地區(qū),，經(jīng)濟增長還有很大空間,。伊斯雷爾?馬爾金和馬克?施皮格爾在上周發(fā)布的一份報告中提出了一個很有意思的命題，為什么投資者應(yīng)當樂觀看待中國,？

????歷史告訴我們,，一個國家的經(jīng)濟不能永遠保持高速增長。研究顯示,，到某一時刻,，通常當人均收入達到17,000美元左右時，經(jīng)濟增速就會開始以每年約2%的速度下滑,，因為工資上漲侵蝕了這個國家相比其他經(jīng)濟體的競爭力,。以美國為例，它損失的很多制造業(yè)工作都流向了亞洲,、拉丁美洲和其他工資低很多的地方,。2011年，美國人均收入達到48,442美元,。中國人均收入遠遠落后這個數(shù)字,，僅為5,445美元，但很快就會接近經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們聲稱經(jīng)濟將見頂?shù)?7,000美元關(guān)口,。

????不過,，中國的經(jīng)濟增長歷程早已證明它的與眾不同。正如馬爾金和施皮格爾指出的那樣,，中國經(jīng)濟已持續(xù)高增長達30多年——遠遠超出其他經(jīng)濟體高增長平均持續(xù)不超過10年的紀錄,。

????而且，中國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展還相當不平衡,。因此,，未來一些年,，中國欠發(fā)達地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟增長將提速，而大城市的發(fā)展將降溫,。根據(jù)亞洲其他經(jīng)濟體這些年來的經(jīng)濟增長方式,，研究者們建立了一個演變模型：中國較發(fā)達省份的經(jīng)濟增速在本十年末將降至5.5%，而欠發(fā)達省份將上升至7.5%——更接近經(jīng)濟學(xué)家普遍認為需要保持就業(yè)增長和社會穩(wěn)定的8%增速,。

????雖然所有這些都可能會實現(xiàn),，但研究人員還是給出了一項警告。中國經(jīng)濟增長的很大一部分一直來自于受出口推動的制造業(yè)和其他行業(yè),。因此,，沿海省份通常發(fā)展快很多，而內(nèi)陸地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展落后,。那些希望加快經(jīng)濟增速的地區(qū)需要建設(shè)像沿海省份那樣良好的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,、物流和銜接出口市場。

????但更為重要的是,，中國的未來很大程度上將取決于政府能不能將更多的錢放進消費者口袋,，減少對投資和出口的投入，從而緩解收入差異問題,。中國官員探討如何重新平衡經(jīng)濟這個問題已經(jīng)有很多年了,。雖然政府在努力增加從醫(yī)療到教育等眾多方面的支出，貧富差距仍然在持續(xù)擴大,，日益成為拖累經(jīng)濟增長的因素,。

????As China's economy slows, many have wondered if record growth in the world's second-largest economy has approached the beginning of the end. During the latest quarter, China's gross domestic product rose 7.4%, still a healthy clip but also the seventh straight quarter of decline, the National Bureau of Statistics reported last week. Economists widely expected this, but there's reason to believe that the slowdown won't be permanent or at least not as severe as some think.

????The topic is especially important today, given that the health of China's economy impacts growth in the U.S. and the rest of the world. We saw the relevance Monday night during the third and final Presidential debate. The all-out China bashing that most had expected never really materialized. Perhaps President Obama and Governor Romney got the memo that China's economic rise probably does more good than harm to America.

????China's growth might have peaked in bigger cities, such as Shanghai and Beijing. However, there's plenty of room for development across the country's seemingly endless swaths of rural lands, according to two economists at the San Francisco Federal Reserve. In a report released last week, Israel Malkin and Mark Spiegel build an interesting case for why investors should be bullish on China.

????History has shown that countries don't usually grow at rapid rates forever. At some point, typically when income per capita reaches about $17,000, growth on average starts to decline about 2% a year as higher wages gnaw at a country's ability to compete with other economies, studies show. Think of the U.S., which has lost countless manufacturing jobs to Asia, Latin America and other places where pay is a lot lower. As of 2011, income per capita in the U.S. was $48,442. While China lags far behind at $5,445, it will soon approach the $17,000 threshold at which economists say growth has peaked.

????But China's growth story has already proven to be quite different. As Malkin and Spiegel point out, it has seen rapid growth for over 30 years – far exceeding other economies where record growth on average lasts for no more than 10 years.

????What's more, development in China is deeply uneven. So in the years ahead, growth across less developed parts of the country could pick up where development in bigger cities cool off. Based on the way other Asian economies have expanded over the years, the researchers created a model for how this could play out: Whereas China's more developed provinces may slow to 5.5% by the close of the decade, growth in the country's less-developed provinces is expected to rise to 7.5% -- closer to the 8% rate that economists widely say is needed to maintain jobs growth and therefore social stability.

????While all this could pan out, the researchers point out a caveat. Much of China's growth has been from manufacturing and other industries driven by exports. As a result, coastal provinces have generally developed much more quickly while the country's inland regions languish behind. For these areas to see faster growth, they'll need the kind of infrastructure and access to shipping and export markets that coastal provinces have enjoyed.

????More importantly, though, China's future will rest largely on how well its government can ease income disparities by putting more money in the pockets of consumers and less on investment and exports. Officials have talked about rebalancing the economy for years. And while government efforts are under way to boost spending on everything from healthcare to education, the growing divide between rich and poor persists and has increasingly contributed to the pullback on growth.