????近期,，中日雙方就東海的幾個(gè)小島發(fā)生糾紛，導(dǎo)致在華日資車企的銷售業(yè)績(jī)?cè)馐苤貏?chuàng),。不過(guò)這一爭(zhēng)端讓其他外國(guó)車企坐收意外之財(cái)，尤其是韓國(guó)最大的車企——現(xiàn)代汽車（Hyundai）,。

????由于遭到眾多中國(guó)消費(fèi)者的抵制,，豐田（Toyota）、本田（Honda）和日產(chǎn)（Nissan）分別宣布財(cái)務(wù)狀況或生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃遭受不利影響,。而與此同時(shí)，現(xiàn)代則稱,，第三財(cái)季在華銷售增長(zhǎng)19%,，當(dāng)季利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)13%。從7月到9月,，日系汽車在華銷售暴跌41%。

????日本的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)堪稱該國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)“皇冠上的明珠”,。汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)咨詢公司LMC Automotive近期發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告稱,，由于本次爭(zhēng)端，中國(guó)“不排除繼續(xù)排擠日系車企的可能,，借此打擊日本經(jīng)濟(jì)”,。

????9月份，日本公布了一份計(jì)劃,，將從私人業(yè)主手中購(gòu)買其稱之為“尖閣列島”（中國(guó)稱為“釣魚(yú)島”），改變了該島的歸屬現(xiàn)狀,，激怒了中國(guó)政府,，中國(guó)各地隨之爆發(fā)各類抗議活動(dòng)。

????10月31日,，《金融時(shí)報(bào)》（Financial Times）刊發(fā)了一則對(duì)日產(chǎn)汽車首席執(zhí)行官卡洛斯?戈恩的采訪,。戈恩稱，中日關(guān)系破裂將延緩日產(chǎn)在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的積極擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃,。他說(shuō),，一家計(jì)劃于2014年在大連建成的工廠仍在按部就班地施工。但進(jìn)一步投資將更為謹(jǐn)慎,。9月，日產(chǎn)在華銷售下降了35%,；他表示,，日產(chǎn)可能無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)明年3月截止的本財(cái)年年度銷售目標(biāo)。

????本田在華銷售也劇降了40%,。本周初，考慮到中國(guó)消費(fèi)者對(duì)其采取的抵制,，它下調(diào)了盈利預(yù)期。

????LMC Automotive的分析師蒂姆?鄧恩稱：“很難說(shuō)抗議活動(dòng)還將持續(xù)多久,?！彼硎荆捎谏婕皪u嶼的歷史根源“時(shí)間久遠(yuǎn),，這次如果不是因?yàn)殡娨晥?bào)道,，不會(huì)引起這么多人的關(guān)注,。這是個(gè)自我發(fā)酵的事件”,。

????近幾年來(lái)，日系車企可謂一直厄運(yùn)連連,。在本土，它們?cè)馐芰酥卮笞匀粸?zāi)害的沖擊,，在泰國(guó)受到洪水侵襲,。在美國(guó)，豐田因所謂的質(zhì)量問(wèn)題引發(fā)輿論嘩然，而這一問(wèn)題事后證明大部分都證據(jù)不足,。

????這次中國(guó)消費(fèi)者針對(duì)日本汽車的怒火讓人想起了20世紀(jì)80年代美國(guó)人對(duì)日本進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的廣泛抵制，這一事件促使北美的日本廠商和供應(yīng)商加快了開(kāi)放步伐,。

????據(jù)LMC Automotive稱，日系豪華車品牌雷克薩斯（Lexus）,、謳歌（Acura）和英菲尼迪（Infiniti）將奮力度過(guò)當(dāng)前的難關(guān),，而寶馬（BMW）和奧迪（Audi）則趁著此次事件坐收漁翁之利。但在運(yùn)動(dòng)型多功能車的市場(chǎng)上,，日系車企仍然占有優(yōu)勢(shì)，因?yàn)闅W洲廠商提供的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)產(chǎn)品并不多,。

????最近,，中國(guó)開(kāi)始加強(qiáng)了對(duì)釣魚(yú)島的沿海巡邏,，同時(shí)加大了外交攻勢(shì)，意味著對(duì)日系車企來(lái)說(shuō)情況不會(huì)很快改觀,。在這一情況下,，本田、豐田和日產(chǎn)可能必須謀求拓展其他市場(chǎng)——美國(guó),、俄羅斯,、巴西或是其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家。盡管對(duì)日企而言,，中國(guó)目前是最動(dòng)蕩不安的市場(chǎng)，但沒(méi)有哪家日系車企能承受撤出中國(guó)汽車市場(chǎng)的代價(jià),，因?yàn)樗瑫r(shí)也是全球發(fā)展最快的汽車市場(chǎng),。

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????The dispute between China and Japan over a few small islands in the East China Sea is wreaking havoc on Japanese automakers selling vehicles in China. The row has provided an unexpected dividend to non-Japanese competitors, notably Hyundai, South Korea's largest automaker.

????Toyota (TM), Honda (HMC) and Nissan (NSANY) have each announced negative impacts to financial results or vehicle production schedules as many Chinese consumers boycott their brands. Hyundai, meanwhile, said third-quarter profit rose 13% as vehicle sales in China surged 19% in the period. From July through September, sales of Japanese cars dropped a staggering 41% in China.

????Japan's auto industry is "the pearl in the crown" of the nation's economy. China "will not rule out the possibility of continuing to squeeze Japanese companies in order to hit the Japanese economy" as a result of the dispute, according to an October report of LMC Automotive Ltd., a consultancy.

????Protests in China broke out in September after Japan announced it was buying what it calls the Senkaku Islands (or Diaoyu in Chinese) from private owners, thus changing the status quo and infuriating the Chinese government.

????In an interview published Oct. 31 in the Financial Times, Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan, said a breakdown in relations between Japan and China could slow Nissan's aggressive expansion plans. He said a factory in Dalian, China scheduled for construction in 2014 remains on track. But further investments will be viewed cautiously. Nissan sales in China were off 35% in September; he said the automaker may not achieve its annual sales goal for the fiscal year ended in March.

????Earlier in the week Honda, whose China sales were down 40%, lowered its profit forecast, based on the consumer boycott of its vehicles.

????Tim Dunne, an analyst with LMC Automotive, said "it's hard to know how long the protests will continue" in China. The historical context of the disputed islands "happened so long ago, many people wouldn't be aware of it if it hadn't been put on TV. It feeds upon itself," he said.

????Japanese automakers have been struggling with remarkable bad fortune, having suffered from natural disaster in their own country, floods in Thailand -- and in the case of Toyota, an uproar over product quality in the U.S. that proved to be largely unfounded.

????The anger by Chinese consumers against Japanese cars recalls a popular backlash in the U.S. in the 1980s against Japanese imports, which helped accelerate the opening of Japanese factories and suppliers across North America.

????According to LMC Automotive, Japanese luxury brands Lexus, Acura and Infiniti will struggle as BMW and Audi pick up the slack. But the Japanese have an advantage in the sport-utility vehicle market, with the Europeans not offering much in the way of competition.

????China has lately been stepping up its maritime patrols around the disputed islands, while amping up diplomatic rhetoric, suggesting that conditions may not soon improve for Japanese automakers. In that case, Honda, Toyota and Nissan may have to look elsewhere to expand -- the U.S., Russia, Brazil or possibly in developing nations. No Japanese automaker can afford to pull the plug on China's auto market, the fastest-growing in the world– and now the most volatile.