????這位高盛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一直是赤字鷹派人物的眼中釘,。比方說，他在2010年時(shí)曾經(jīng)說：“很多年內(nèi)通貨膨脹都不太可能是個(gè)問題,?！?011年，他發(fā)表了《對(duì)名義GDP目標(biāo)的分析》（The case for a Nominal GDP Level Target）報(bào)告,，闡明了他信奉的觀點(diǎn),，此后，這種觀點(diǎn)已經(jīng)逐漸贏得了支持,。設(shè)定名義國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（NGDP）目標(biāo),，最早是由教授和博主斯考特?薩姆納推行的一個(gè)理念。大致設(shè)想是由美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Fed）官員設(shè)定名義GDP目標(biāo),，并承諾采取一切可能的措施（例如購(gòu)買資產(chǎn)）達(dá)到這個(gè)水平,。哈祖斯在報(bào)告中提到薩姆納時(shí)稱，設(shè)定名義GDP目標(biāo)是“Fed最有前途的選擇”,。

????金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后,，哈祖斯憑借危機(jī)前的精確預(yù)言備受矚目。曾在牛津大學(xué)（Oxford）和威斯康辛大學(xué)麥迪遜分校（University of Wisconsin-Madison）求學(xué)的哈祖斯于1997年加盟高盛法蘭?？宿k公室,。他在2011年成為高盛的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，接替現(xiàn)任紐約聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行（Federal Reserve Bank of New York）行長(zhǎng)威廉?杜德利,。

????美國(guó)聯(lián)邦選舉委員會(huì)（Federal Election Commission）的記錄顯示,，哈祖斯曾在2004年向共和黨全國(guó)委員會(huì)捐款1,000美元，2007年向奧巴馬捐款2,300美元,。這次大選,，他只向高盛的政治行動(dòng)委員會(huì)捐了款，這個(gè)委員會(huì)同時(shí)支持兩個(gè)政黨的候選人,。

????早在2005年,，哈祖斯就拉響了住房市場(chǎng)的警報(bào)，當(dāng)時(shí)他發(fā)表了一篇題為《泡沫危機(jī),？也許是吧》（Bubble Trouble? Probably Yes）的報(bào)告,。2007年12月，經(jīng)濟(jì)專欄作家本?斯坦恩在《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》上批評(píng)哈祖斯的悲觀預(yù)測(cè)，聲稱他是在制造恐慌情緒,，為高盛的看跌頭寸造勢(shì),。

????斯坦恩（錯(cuò)誤地）嘲笑了哈祖斯的觀點(diǎn)，后者認(rèn)為,，次貸危機(jī)可能會(huì)失控,，阻礙貸款和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)?！八€假定,，”他寫道，“銀行將不得不進(jìn)行深度收縮,，導(dǎo)致貸款停滯,，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)蹣跚——二戰(zhàn)以來從來沒有出現(xiàn)過這樣的情形，除非美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)有意為之,?！保ㄟ@篇文章單從娛樂價(jià)值而言，值得一看,，點(diǎn)擊閱讀,。）

????雖然華爾街經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家通常都不會(huì)做出明確的政治評(píng)論，但有些知名的預(yù)測(cè)人士已表示,，一旦羅姆尼當(dāng)選,，他將提振市場(chǎng)。巴克萊銀行（Barclays）美國(guó)首席股票策略師巴瑞?納普10月份時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)稱,，共和黨獲勝可能推高股市,。他在另外一份報(bào)告中稱，如果羅姆尼獲勝,，將“雙管齊下”,，推行“促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的稅收和福利改革”。擁躉甚多的知名看跌經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家大衛(wèi)?羅森博格最近在一次采訪中表示,，羅姆尼更可能妥協(xié),，使得他（當(dāng)選）“總體上對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)更有利”,。

????哈祖斯沒有明確說過他認(rèn)為奧巴馬獲勝將有利于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì),。一位高盛發(fā)言人稱：“任何預(yù)測(cè)的依據(jù)都是我們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行規(guī)律、政府政策對(duì)市場(chǎng)和利率的影響等問題的認(rèn)識(shí),。我們的目標(biāo)是盡可能準(zhǔn)確,，而不是支持某個(gè)黨派的政策?！?/p>

????然而,，哈祖斯的立場(chǎng)毫無疑問會(huì)令當(dāng)前的政府很高興。奧巴馬在高盛或許已失去很多支持者，但他仍然保住了一位有智慧的盟友——盡管捐款減少了,，但這個(gè)盟友或許更值錢,。

????譯者：早稻米

????The Goldman economist has been a thorn in the side of deficit hawks, arguing in 2010, for example, that "inflation is unlikely to become a problem for years." In 2011, he published a note titled "The case for a Nominal GDP Level Target," giving his endorsement to the idea, which has since gained momentum. NGDP targeting, a concept that was promoted early on by the professor and blogger Scott Sumner, would have Fed officials targeting a nominal GDP level, and then pledging to do whatever it takes (e.g. buying assets) to reach that level. In his note, which cited Sumner, Hatzius called NGDP targeting "the Fed's most promising option."

????The economist rose to prominence during the financial meltdown, largely because of his accurate prognostications leading up to the crisis. Schooled at Oxford and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Hatzius joined Goldman's Frankfurt office in 1997. He became the chief economist at Goldman in 2011, succeeding William Dudley, the current president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

????Federal Election Commission records show that Hatzius donated $1000 to the Democratic National Committee in 2004 and $2300 to Obama in 2007. During this election cycle, he only donated to Goldman's political action committee, which had backed candidates from both parties.

????Hatzius sounded warnings about the housing market as early as 2005, when he published a report that asked "Bubble Trouble? Probably Yes." In December of 2007, the economics writer Ben Stein criticized Hatzius in the New York Times for his gloomy prognostications, accusing the economist of fear-mongering in order to support Goldman's bearish position.

????Stein (incorrectly) mocked Hatzius for his view that the subprime mortgage crisis could spin out of control, hampering lending and slowing growth. "He is also postulating," Stein wrote, "that lenders would have to retrench so deeply that lending would stall and growth would falter -- an event that, again, has not happened on any scale in the postwar world, except when planned by the central bank." (The piece, available here, is worth reading for its comedic value alone).

????While Wall Street economists typically avoid giving explicit political commentary, some well known forecasters have said that a Romney win would boost the market. Barry Knapp, the top U.S. equities strategist at Barclays, predicted in October that a GOP sweep would likely send stocks higher; he observed in a separate note that a Romney win would "carry a dual mandate" of "pro-growth tax reform and entitlement reform." David Rosenberg, a notoriously bearish economist with a large following, recently said in an interviewthat Romney would be more likely to compromise, making him "overall better for the economy."

????Hatzius has not said outright that he believes an Obama victory would benefit the economy. A Goldman Sachs (GS) spokesperson said, "Forecasts are informed by our views on how the economy works and what government policy will mean for markets and interest rates. Our goal is to be as accurate as possible, not to champion the policies of either party."

????And yet, Hatzius' positions have no doubt pleased the administration. The President may have lost many of his supporters at Goldman, but he has maintained an intellectual ally—which may be worth more than the decline in donations.