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埃及危機(jī)蘊(yùn)藏希望

埃及危機(jī)蘊(yùn)藏希望

Mohamed El-Erian 2012-11-29
當(dāng)前埃及的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)前景嚴(yán)峻,但還不到絕望的時(shí)候,。實(shí)際上,,如果處理得當(dāng),,這次最新?tīng)?zhēng)端或許反而能幫助埃及及時(shí)而富有建設(shè)性地修正前進(jìn)的道路,,帶來(lái)持久的正面效應(yīng)。

????? 第三,,民眾賦權(quán)可能強(qiáng)化:從提高公民參與度到政治空想,絕不要低估最終感受到當(dāng)家做主、可以改變國(guó)家命運(yùn)的民眾所爆發(fā)出來(lái)的潛力,。

????? 第四,,埃及經(jīng)濟(jì)潛力巨大:如果政局穩(wěn)定,短期能獲得金融援助,,很多領(lǐng)域的生產(chǎn)力將得到釋放,。

????? 最后,埃及的朋友和盟友們都希望看到這個(gè)國(guó)家的轉(zhuǎn)型取得成功,,并愿意為此做出貢獻(xiàn):很多人都熱切地期待埃及國(guó)內(nèi)能持續(xù)地推動(dòng)實(shí)現(xiàn)革命目標(biāo),,取得真正的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)進(jìn)步,他們?cè)敢鉃榇吮M一份力,。

????埃及當(dāng)前的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)前景正面臨挑戰(zhàn),,原因可以理解;最新的國(guó)內(nèi)政治爭(zhēng)端加深了與革命核心相關(guān)的焦慮,。

????但要說(shuō)對(duì)這個(gè)國(guó)家不報(bào)任何希望,,現(xiàn)在還為時(shí)尚早。實(shí)際上,,如果處理得當(dāng),,這次最新?tīng)?zhēng)端(以及它在國(guó)內(nèi)引發(fā)的反應(yīng))或許能幫助埃及及時(shí)而富有建設(shè)性地修正前進(jìn)的道路,帶來(lái)持久的效應(yīng),。

????穆罕默德?埃爾-埃利安是太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)的首席執(zhí)行官兼聯(lián)席首席投資官,。

????譯者:楊智

????? Third, the potential upside of popular empowerment: From greater civic engagement to visionary aspirations, never underestimate the upside associated with a population that finally feels it owns the country and can influence its destiny.

????? Fourth, the economy's considerable potential: With some sustained political stability and short-term financial assistance, many productive sectors can be unleashed in a meaningful manner.

????? Finally, Egypt's friends and allies are interested in its success and they're ready to contribute: many are keen to align themselves behind a sustained domestic effort to attain the revolution's objectives of real and inclusive economic and social progress.

????Egypt's immediate political and economic future is challenging, and for understandable reasons; and the latest internal political controversy adds to the anxiety associated with a tricky revolutionary pivot.

????Yet it is too early to give up on the country. Indeed, if properly handled, even this latest controversy – and the internal responses it has already triggered – could end up helping Egypt course correct in a constructive, timely and durable fashion.

????Mohamed El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.

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