????“哇哦,！”投資者聽(tīng)到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）在上周三的政策聲明后，肯定會(huì)有這樣的反應(yīng),。這種反應(yīng)里不僅包含著驚訝,，還混雜著各種相互矛盾的情緒。

????毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)昨天的聲明,，起碼關(guān)于中央銀行業(yè)務(wù)和貨幣政策的部分,，肯定會(huì)被載入史冊(cè)。它標(biāo)志著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)朝著激進(jìn)主義,、積極參與的抱負(fù)邁出了重要一步,。然而,，這種轉(zhuǎn)變同時(shí)也充滿了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)樗沟妹缆?lián)儲(chǔ)在試驗(yàn)性的,、充滿政治因素的領(lǐng)域愈陷愈深,。上周三，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)公布了兩項(xiàng)措施,，其中一項(xiàng)在意料之中,，另外一項(xiàng)則完全超出了人們的預(yù)期。

????首先,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)增加了市場(chǎng)證券購(gòu)買(mǎi)力度,，將2013年的美元金額擴(kuò)大一倍，增加到1萬(wàn)億美元,，不論從哪個(gè)角度來(lái)看,，都堪稱(chēng)大手筆。其次,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)改變了遠(yuǎn)期政策指引的量化指標(biāo)（失業(yè)率與通脹）,。鑒于理論與實(shí)踐的復(fù)雜性，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)祭出該政策的時(shí)間遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)早于大多數(shù)投資者的預(yù)期,。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)緩滯帶來(lái)了持續(xù)的失望情緒,，居高不下的失業(yè)率和對(duì)失業(yè)愈加深切的擔(dān)憂是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)此次急切推出未知政策的原因。這些因素從結(jié)構(gòu)上已經(jīng)滲透到美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中,。

????美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)公布政策聲明之后的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上,，直率的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席本?伯南克也表達(dá)了類(lèi)似的觀點(diǎn)。很明顯,，伯南克對(duì)財(cái)政懸崖依然抱有顧慮,，政治癱瘓使美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)再次陷入衰退的可能性也讓他寢食難安。加快政策執(zhí)行也反映出美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)希望給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)加上多重保險(xiǎn),。

????關(guān)于投資者的復(fù)雜情緒：政策加大對(duì)失業(yè)率的重視,，我們應(yīng)該表示歡迎。美國(guó)的就業(yè)危機(jī)將耗費(fèi)龐大的人力成本,。貧困階層人數(shù)將日益增加,。社區(qū)的社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)正在日益遭到這場(chǎng)危機(jī)所侵蝕。危機(jī)持續(xù)的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),，解決的難度就越高,。

????美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)再次向投資者證明，它已經(jīng)使盡渾身解數(shù),。這是好消息,。為了“推動(dòng)”投資者承擔(dān)更多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)甚至付出了更多努力,，試圖人為支撐資產(chǎn)價(jià)格,。壞消息是,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為應(yīng)對(duì)目前的挑戰(zhàn)所設(shè)計(jì)的工具尚不完善，對(duì)于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和其他美國(guó)聯(lián)邦政府機(jī)構(gòu)（尤其是MIA）而言,，可能會(huì)力不從心,。

????首先，伯南克自己也承認(rèn),，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)異常的激進(jìn)主義可能導(dǎo)致的后果根本無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè),，而且會(huì)付出一定的代價(jià)。不確定的預(yù)期效益,，伴隨而來(lái)的附帶損害和意外后果風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將會(huì)提高,。而且，每次美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)感覺(jué)自己應(yīng)該做更多工作時(shí),，對(duì)微妙平衡的支持卻會(huì)越少,，因?yàn)橹暗拇胧┦招跷ⅰ?/p>

????其次，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加大干預(yù)從根本上說(shuō)并不符合市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的有效運(yùn)行,。截至2013年底,，根據(jù)證券市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)掌控的市場(chǎng)份額將在30%至40%之間,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)以“裁判”和“參賽者”的雙重身份參與市場(chǎng),。結(jié)果將使市場(chǎng)功能、價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)機(jī)制和資本分配遭到嚴(yán)重扭曲,。

????Wow! That is what I suspect many investors said when they heard Wednesday's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. And this single reaction would have captured not just partial surprise but also a combination of conflicting feelings.

????Have no doubt: Yesterday's Fed announcement will go down in the history books -- at least those texts covering central banking and monetary policy. It marks a major evolution in the activism, involvement and aspirations of the central bank. It is also a risky move, taking the institution much deeper into experimental and politically charged territory.The Fed took two major steps on Wednesday, one expected and one less so.

????First, it added to its expected purchases of market securities, doubling the dollar amount to $1 trillion for 2013 -- a very large number by any measure. Second, the Fed shifted to quantitative (unemployment and inflation) targets for forward policy guidance, and it did so earlier than most expected given theoretical and practical complexities.

????This further leap into the policy unknown was motivated by continued disappointment with the economy's sluggish growth, persistently high unemployment and increasing concern about joblessness becoming more structurally embedded into the economy.

????That much was said by Ben Bernanke, the Fed's admirably transparent chairman, during his press conference after the news was unveiled. It was also obvious that he is very concerned about the fiscal cliff, and the possibility that political paralysis could push the economy into another recession. The accelerated policy implementation may also reflect the Fed's desire to take out some additional insurance.

????Now for the mixed feelings: We should all welcome the greater policy emphasis being placed on unemployment. This national jobs crisis has enormous human costs. It increases poverty. It eats away at the social fabric of our communities. And the longer it persists, the harder it is to solve.

????The Fed has again demonstrated to investors that it is "all in." That is the good news. The Fed is doing even more in its attempt to artificially bolster asset prices as a way to "push" investors to take more risk. The bad news is that the institution, with its imperfect tools for the challenge at hand and with other federal government entities essentially MIA, may be taking on an unsustainable burden.

????First, and as recognized by Bernanke, the outcome of the Fed's unusual activism is neither predictable nor costless. Uncertain expected benefits come with an increasing risk of collateral damage and unintended consequences. And the tricky balance becomes less favorable every time the Fed feels it has to do more because prior actions have not been sufficiently effective.

????Second, the Fed's growing involvement is ultimately inconsistent with the proper efficient functioning of a market economy. With a market share that will end 2013 between 30% and 45% depending on the securities, the Fed is heavily involved in markets as both a referee and player. As such, it distorts their functioning, the price discovery process and the allocation of capital.