????美國(guó)制造業(yè)正在顯示出復(fù)蘇跡象,，部分原因在于美元貶值已使美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品較外國(guó)產(chǎn)品更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,。不過(guò),，甲之蜜糖，乙之砒霜,。對(duì)于美國(guó)而言的好事對(duì)于其他國(guó)家而言就成了壞事,，因?yàn)槠渌麌?guó)家的產(chǎn)品將因價(jià)格相對(duì)上漲而被美國(guó)市場(chǎng)拋棄，并被迫在其他市場(chǎng)與更為便宜（以本幣衡量）的美國(guó)商品展開(kāi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng),。

????作為經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃的一部分,，日本新首相安倍晉三正在向日本央行施壓，迫使它走日元貶值的路子,。中國(guó)也正考慮類(lèi)似路線,。德國(guó)也在推動(dòng)各項(xiàng)計(jì)劃，它們名義上是為了幫助經(jīng)濟(jì)上陷入困境的歐元區(qū)國(guó)家,，但實(shí)際上也將壓低歐元匯率,，使德國(guó)產(chǎn)品更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，雖然直接控制歐元的是歐洲央行,，而非德國(guó),。

????美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在玩一個(gè)復(fù)雜的、高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的游戲,。美元是世界儲(chǔ)備貨幣,，這使得美國(guó)能夠吸收來(lái)自世界各地的資金，并將這些資金用于貿(mào)易和解決預(yù)算赤字問(wèn)題,，而無(wú)需平衡賬戶,。在美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)情況（美元走低是利好）以及美元作為儲(chǔ)備貨幣的角色（美元貶值過(guò)快可能會(huì)使投資者恐慌并導(dǎo)致其失去儲(chǔ)備貨幣地位）之間存在矛盾關(guān)系。

????而美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)低利率政策的第二大副作用是純粹的好事——即為解決聯(lián)邦預(yù)算赤字問(wèn)題提供資金,。

????自四年前大力實(shí)施刺激計(jì)劃以來(lái),，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)獲得巨額利潤(rùn)，而且這些利潤(rùn)幾乎全部交給了美國(guó)財(cái)政部,。去年,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布獲利約910億美元，其中889億美元交給了美國(guó)財(cái)政部,。2008年,，也就是上一個(gè)近乎正常的年度，交付金額為317億美元,。2009年至2011年交付金額分別達(dá)474億美元,、793億美元和754億美元。

????美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的利潤(rùn)不斷飆升,，因?yàn)槠渥C券投資組合規(guī)模已從2007年年底的約7,500億美元上升至去年年底的2.65萬(wàn)億美元左右,。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一直在大力收購(gòu)美國(guó)國(guó)債和抵押貸款支持證券，以期推高它們的價(jià)格，而這會(huì)壓低利率,。

????美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)用實(shí)質(zhì)上憑空創(chuàng)造出來(lái)的資金購(gòu)買(mǎi)這些證券,，然后將資金計(jì)入出售證券的金融機(jī)構(gòu)在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的賬戶。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)賣(mài)家留在這些賬戶上的資金支付名義利息,，而從這些賬戶中提取用于其他目的（如發(fā)放貸款）的資金則無(wú)利息支付,。同時(shí)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收取其已購(gòu)買(mǎi)證券的利息,。因此,，擴(kuò)大投資組合讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)獲得了巨大的盈利。

????新澤西州普林斯頓全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場(chǎng)研究公司四通麥卡錫研究協(xié)會(huì)（Stone McCarthy Research Associates）聯(lián)席創(chuàng)始人雷?斯通是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)問(wèn)題領(lǐng)域的專(zhuān)家,，他說(shuō)：“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)實(shí)施這些計(jì)劃并不是為了尋求自身利潤(rùn)最大化,，這只是一個(gè)副作用?！彼A(yù)計(jì),，相比去年，今年美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將實(shí)現(xiàn)更高利潤(rùn),，交付給美國(guó)財(cái)政部的資金也會(huì)更多,。

????此外,，預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年將收購(gòu)約5,400億美元的美國(guó)國(guó)債,，而這將間接為今年的聯(lián)邦預(yù)算赤字填補(bǔ)約一半資金缺口。如果您能搞明白這點(diǎn),，那可以說(shuō)得上是相當(dāng)了不起了,。那就再接再厲吧！

????落健生發(fā)液和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息之間還有一個(gè)關(guān)鍵區(qū)別：持久力,。您可以一直使用落健生發(fā)液,，但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不斷降低利率的計(jì)劃不具有無(wú)限的保質(zhì)期。伯南克將美國(guó)利率推低至現(xiàn)代最低水平,，但他不能將利率降至零以下,。即便美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不愿意收緊貨幣政策，但它無(wú)從控制世界——它不能無(wú)限期地承受來(lái)自金融市場(chǎng)及其他央行的壓力,。當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不可回避地開(kāi)始加息時(shí),，美元將隨之上漲，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的利潤(rùn)和交付給美國(guó)財(cái)政部的資金也將下降,?？傊t(yī)藥刺激是永恒的,。但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的刺激不是,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????U.S. manufacturing is showing signs of recovery, in part because the dollar's decline has made domestically produced products more competitive with foreign products. But what's good for us is bad for countries whose products are being priced out of our market and are being forced to compete with cheaper (in terms of their currencies) U.S. goods in other markets, including their own.

????The new Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is pushing his country's central bank to run down the value of the yen as part of his economic stimulus program. China is thinking along similar lines. Germany, which doesn't control the euro directly -- the European Central Bank does -- is pushing programs that are nominally aimed at economically struggling euro countries, but that will also drive down the euro's value, making Germany more competitive.

????The Fed is playing a complicated, high-stakes game here. The dollar is the world's reserve currency, which allows us to suck in money from all over the world to fund our trade and budget deficits without having to balance our accounts. There's a tension between our internal situation (a lower dollar is good) and our role as a reserve currency (a dollar that falls too rapidly risks spooking investors and costing us our reserve-currency status).

????By contrast, the second side effect of the Fed's low-rate policies -- helping finance our federal budget deficit -- is an unalloyed good thing.

????The Fed has been making huge profits since its stimulus programs kicked into high gear four years ago, and it has contributed virtually all of them to the Treasury. Last year, the Fed says, it made about $91 billion in profits and sent $88.9 billion of that to the Treasury. That's up from $31.7 billion it sent in 2008, the last almost-normal year, and $47.4 billion, $79.3 billion, and $75.4 billion from 2009 through 2011, respectively.

????The Fed's profit is soaring because the size of its securities portfolio has risen, to about $2.65 trillion at the end of last year from about $750 billion at year-end 2007. The Fed has been buying Treasury and mortgage-backed securities by the boatload in order to raise their prices, which has the effect of driving down interest rates.

????The Fed bought these securities with money that it essentially created out of thin air and then credited to the Fed accounts of the financial institutions that sold the securities. The Fed pays nominal interest on the money that sellers leave in those accounts, and no interest on the money withdrawn from them for other purposes, such as making loans. Meanwhile, the Fed collects interest on the securities it has bought. Thus, expanding the portfolio has been hugely profitable.

????"The Fed isn't running these programs to maximize its own profit; that's just a side effect," says Ray Stone of Stone McCarthy Research Associates of Princeton, N.J., a leading Fed maven. He predicts that the Fed will post higher profits -- and send more money to the Treasury -- this year than it did last year.

????On top of that, the Fed's projected purchases of about $540 billion of Treasury securities this year will indirectly fund about half of this year's federal budget deficit. Nice work if you can get it. And keep it.

????There's one crucial difference between Rogaine and Fed rate-cutting: staying power. You can take Rogaine indefinitely, but the Fed's keep-lowering-rates program doesn't have an indefinite shelf life. Bernanke has driven U.S. interest rates to their lowest level in modern times, but he can't drive them below zero. Even if the Fed is reluctant to tighten, it doesn't control the world -- and it can't indefinitely withstand pressure from financial markets and from other central banks. When the Fed's inevitable dial-back kicks in, the dollar will rise, and Fed profits and remittances to the Treasury will fall. The bottom line: Pharmaceutical stimulus is forever. But Fed stimulus isn't.