????相信可以對(duì)線性發(fā)展型職業(yè)做出線性預(yù)期的人可能會(huì)認(rèn)為阿里夫?納克維一直都沒有選對(duì)時(shí)機(jī)。這位出生在卡拉奇的投資人曾研究過蘇維埃經(jīng)濟(jì)體系和國(guó)家規(guī)劃,，但沒過幾年蘇聯(lián)就分崩離析,。伊拉克入侵科威特三天后，納克維從英國(guó)來到沙特,。他以負(fù)責(zé)人和投資人的身份設(shè)立了Celebration of Entrepreneurship,，這是當(dāng)時(shí)中東最大的創(chuàng)業(yè)家團(tuán)體，而兩個(gè)月后就爆發(fā)了阿拉伯之春運(yùn)動(dòng),。

????但除了他的業(yè)績(jī),，這位了不起的企業(yè)家再?zèng)]有什么東西具有線性特征，或者說符合線性預(yù)期,。1994年,，納克維拿著7.5萬美元積蓄來到迪拜，開始通過逆市操作來尋找投資機(jī)會(huì),。隨后的15年中,，他的投資公司Abraaj Group實(shí)際上推動(dòng)了中東和北非建立自己的私募基金行業(yè),。2012年夏天，Abraaj Group收購(gòu)了設(shè)在倫敦的私募基金公司Aureos Capital?，F(xiàn)在,，這家公司已成為全球最主要的增長(zhǎng)型市場(chǎng)投資人之一。Abraaj Group管理著80多億美元資產(chǎn),，通過七個(gè)業(yè)務(wù)中心在35座城市開展經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng),，從拉美到中國(guó)，從哈薩克斯坦到南非,，到處都有它的投資印記,。

????因此，對(duì)于目前中東的不確定性和機(jī)遇,，以及它們與新興市場(chǎng)整體趨勢(shì)的契合,，納克維有話要說并不讓人感到意外。

????上個(gè)月,，我和納克維在他的紐約酒店套房里共飲咖啡,。他說：“現(xiàn)在許多人在觀察這個(gè)世界，特別是把目光落在中東時(shí)都會(huì)犯一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤,。那就是,，他們對(duì)中東一概而論，并不了解各個(gè)國(guó)家的細(xì)微差別,。西方,、尤其是西方媒體似乎只會(huì)把中東看做一個(gè)大戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)。敘利亞的情況不應(yīng)抹殺中東國(guó)家所能取得的成就,。但西方世界的觀點(diǎn)正是如此,。”

????納克維相信,，實(shí)際上更大的問題在于西方世界忽略了中東的三大實(shí)際情況,，而不是對(duì)中東有哪些誤解。

????Those who believe linear careers are linearly predictable might think Arif Naqvi has had consistently bad timing. The Karachi-born investor studied Soviet Economic Systems and National Planning at the London School of Economics a few years before the Soviet Union collapsed. He moved from London to Saudi Arabia three days after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. He led and funded the Celebration of Entrepreneurship, then the largest gathering of start-up entrepreneurs in the Middle East, two months before the Arab uprisings consumed the region.

????But there is nothing linear or linearly predictable in this remarkable entrepreneur except his performance. Naqvi arrived in Dubai in 1994 with a total savings of $75,000 and set to work to find investment opportunity by making contrarian bets. Over the subsequent fifteen years, his investment firm Abraaj Group effectively helped give birth to the private equity industry in the Middle East and North Africa. Today, after acquiring the London-based private equity fund Aureos Capital in the summer of 2012, Abraaj is among the largest growth market investors worldwide. It manages over $8 billion, operating out of seven hubs across 35 cities, with investments from Latin America to China, from Kazakhstan to South Africa.

????It is no surprise that he has something to say about the uncertainty and opportunity in today's Middle East, and how this fits into broader trend for new markets.

????"The mistake so many people looking at the world make today, especially when they consider the Middle East is that they paint it all with one brush as opposed to understanding the nuances within each of country," Naqvi told me over coffee in his New York City hotel suite last month. "The West -- particularly Western media -- doesn't seem to be able to discuss the region in any other way than as to suggest it is simply one big war zone. Events that happen in Syria should not detract from what the region can accomplish. But they do."

????In fact, Naqvi believes, the problem is not so much what the West misunderstands as it is three realities it misses altogether.