????瑞士出大事了,。雖然涉及的產(chǎn)品不像可口可樂(lè)或者iPad那樣牽動(dòng)消費(fèi)者的心弦,，但它們不可或缺,，有些還十分閃亮。瑞士大宗商品巨頭嘉能可（Glencore）和礦業(yè)巨頭斯特拉塔（Xstrata）即將完成合并,，交易金額高達(dá)幾十億美元,。一旦成功，兩家公司將掌控遍布全球的豐富礦產(chǎn)資源和工業(yè)原材料資源,。

????雖然兩家公司第一次宣布合并已經(jīng)要追溯到2011年,，但他們周二表示合并最后期限再度延期至今年4月16日。他們需要等待中國(guó)政府的批準(zhǔn),，后者將審查合并對(duì)中國(guó)銅市場(chǎng)的可能影響,?！度A爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》（Wall Street Journal）報(bào)道稱,，嘉能可首席執(zhí)行官伊凡?格拉森伯格認(rèn)為，中國(guó)政府最終將批準(zhǔn)這宗購(gòu)案,，它只是漫長(zhǎng)國(guó)際審批流程的最后一關(guān),。

????那么為何中國(guó)政府會(huì)突然發(fā)難？

????首先,，中國(guó)開(kāi)始關(guān)注銅的原因在于中國(guó)已成為世界頭號(hào)銅消費(fèi)大國(guó),。根據(jù)國(guó)際銅研究小組（the International Copper Study Group）2012年下半年發(fā)布的報(bào)告，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)對(duì)銅的需求占據(jù)了全球的40%,。格倫?艾維斯是德勤（Deloitte）加拿大分公司的主席,，同時(shí)還是一位礦業(yè)分析專家。他說(shuō),，隨著中國(guó)工業(yè)化進(jìn)程,，這個(gè)需求不會(huì)減弱?！叭绻罅ν七M(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)化,，為農(nóng)村轉(zhuǎn)移人口提供足夠的電力就是其中不可回避的一項(xiàng)任務(wù)，”他說(shuō),，這就意味著需要大量的銅線,。

????中國(guó)對(duì)銅的需求多種多樣，較成熟市場(chǎng)更勝一籌,。艾維斯表示,，雪上加霜的是，雖然全球銅資源較為豐富,，但可供開(kāi)采的銅礦為數(shù)不多,，他們很可能無(wú)法滿足中國(guó)未來(lái)的需求。

????國(guó)際銅供應(yīng)相對(duì)比較緊張,。銅與黃金不同,，后者易受泡沫影響,，而銅的供求基本平穩(wěn)。這就意味著,，如果一小部分礦山不能滿足需求,，市場(chǎng)可能很快出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)。對(duì)投資者而言,，這可能導(dǎo)致大宗商品價(jià)格上漲,。但對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，它將意味著其極為需要的一種金屬嚴(yán)重短缺,。

????中國(guó)延遲嘉能可-斯特拉塔交易凸顯了在這個(gè)國(guó)家運(yùn)作時(shí)一個(gè)潛在的經(jīng)營(yíng)問(wèn)題,。中國(guó)現(xiàn)在需要的大宗商品組合與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家不同，例如在此例中是金屬,。因此,，中國(guó)政府將不慌不忙地審查任何可能改變其供給的交易。嘉能可和斯特拉塔這樣的公司必須適應(yīng)這種仔細(xì)的審查過(guò)程,，因?yàn)樵诳深A(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái),，中國(guó)將是大宗商品最重要的消費(fèi)國(guó)之一。

????中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人之所以延遲交易,，可能是為了避免供給減少而妨礙經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),。艾維斯說(shuō)：“我總覺(jué)得，中國(guó)根深蒂固的擔(dān)憂在于,，它可能在未來(lái)的某一天出現(xiàn)大宗商品總體短缺,。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????Big things are going on in Switzerland. The products involved may not tug at consumer heartstrings like a Coke or an iPad, but they're essential, and some are very shiny. Swiss commodities giant Glencore and Swiss mining company Xstrata are on the verge of a multibillion dollar merger that would give both access to massive mineral wealth and other raw materials worldwide.

????Though the merger was first announced in 2011, the companies said Tuesday that they are extending the deadline to complete the deal to April 16. The companies need extra time because the Chinese government is reviewing how the deal could potentially affect its copper market. According to the Wall Street Journal, Glencore CEO Ivan Glasenberg says he believes that Chinese officials will ultimately accept the deal, the last step in a lengthy international approval process.

????Then why the hold up?

????For one, China is tuned into copper because it is the world's top consumer of the metal. The country accounts for 40% of copper's global demand, according to the International Copper Study Group's report issued late 2012. That demand will hold as China continues to industrialize, says Glenn Ives, mining expert and chair of Deloitte Canada. "If you're taking a rural population and urbanizing them, one of the things you do is provide them with electricity," he says, which requires plenty of copper wiring.

????China needs copper in ways that more mature markets don't. To add to the crunch, while there are plenty of copper reserves worldwide, there may not be enough mines producing the metal to meet China's future demand, Ives says.

????The market for copper is relatively tight. Unlike gold, which is susceptible to bubbles, copper supply and demand are just about even. That means that the market could become volatile quickly if, for example, a small number of mines can't meet demand. For investors, that could lead to higher commodity prices. But for China, it would translate into a major shortage of a much-needed metal.

????China's delay of the Glencore-Xstrata deal highlights one of many potential operational issues when working in the country. China, right now, needs a different mix of commodities, in this case metals, than developed countries. Accordingly, the government will take its time to scrutinize any deal that could alter its supply. Companies like Glencore and Xstrata must cater to that careful review process, since China will be one of the most important consumers of commodities for the foreseeable future.

????For Chinese leaders, delaying the deal is likely part of an attempt to prevent a lull in supply that could stunt economic growth. "I actually think the deep-rooted concern in China is that there may be a time that they just cannot get commodities in general," Ives says.