????中國經(jīng)濟2013年的開局與往年如出一轍,。它在前兩個月的增長基本都是拜出口業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的推動所賜。而建筑業(yè)增長背后的動力則源自信貸,。當前的發(fā)展軌跡如果持續(xù)下去,，必將給中國的經(jīng)濟體制帶來更多債務和風險。

????與前一年相比,，中國一,、二月份的城市投資增加了21%，增速超過2012年全年的增長速度,。中國城市人口的日益膨脹,，許多在建的基礎(chǔ)設施都不可或缺。但令人擔憂的是房地產(chǎn)投資,。雖然中國政府一直在努力控制房地產(chǎn)投機活動,，但住宅投資增幅仍然高達23%，而2012年全年僅有11%,。

????增長背后的推動力便是信貸,。隨著“社會總?cè)谫Y”的增加，房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)也開始出現(xiàn)波動。所謂社會總?cè)谫Y不僅包括銀行貸款與債券,，還包括公司間貸款和信托公司提供的資金,。今年一、二月份,，社會總?cè)谫Y年比增長了79%,。

????但所有這些貸款并沒有進入普通人的腰包。根據(jù)公認存在缺陷的零售業(yè)銷售標準,，中國的消費仍然相對疲軟,。零售銷售的增長速度僅有房地產(chǎn)投資的一半左右。服裝與汽車的銷售從去年就已經(jīng)開始放緩,；日用品,、食品、煙草和家具銷售的增長處于兩年以來的最低水平,。

????算術(shù)學告訴我們,，這樣的增長不可能持久。如果過去兩個月的貸款增長按現(xiàn)有速度持續(xù)下去,，中國將為2013年的經(jīng)濟注入約22萬億元資金,，這個數(shù)字比前一年增加了37%。雖然這或許能讓中國再次實現(xiàn)7.5%的官方增長目標,，但中國所付出的代價將是金融風險進一步累積,。

????去年，許多持看跌態(tài)度的投資者認為,，中國的房地產(chǎn)市場將徹底崩潰,，但他們的預期并沒有變成現(xiàn)實。社會融資的驚人增長便是主要原因,。最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，雖然具體時間難以預測，但中國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的“清算日”似乎仍然不可避免,。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????China began 2013 with the same old economic model. Growth for the first two months of the year was driven mainly by exports and real estate. The increase in construction appears to have been fueled by credit. The current trajectory can continue only by pumping ever more leverage, and risk, into the system.

????Investment in cities was up 21% compared to the previous year in January and February -- faster than the whole of 2012. Some of the infrastructure that is being built will become necessary as China's urban population swells. But the worrying bit is property investment. Even as the government tries to rein in real estate speculation, investment in residences increased by 23%, compared with 11% for the whole of 2012.

????That growth is being driven by credit. Property development tends to fluctuate with the growth of "total social financing": a measure that includes not only bank credit and bonds but also inter-company loans and funding from trust companies. During January and February, it grew 79% year on year.

????All that lending, though, isn't trickling down to the man on the street. Consumption looks relatively weak, based on the admittedly flawed metric of retail sales. These grew at around half the rate of property investment. Sales of clothes and cars slowed from last year; growth in everyday items, food, tobacco, and furniture were the worst in two years.

????Arithmetic suggests this can't last. If the past two months' lending run rate continues, China will pump almost 22 trillion yuan of new financing into the economy in 2013 -- a 37% increase over the previous year. While this may allow the country to once again meet its official growth target of 7.5%, it will have been achieved at the expense of an ever greater build-up of financial risk.

????Last year, many bearish investors bet on a Chinese property market crash that didn't materialize. The startling rise in social financing was the main reason why. The latest data suggests that while the timing may be hard to predict, an eventual reckoning still looks inevitable.