????過(guò)去幾年來(lái),，在朝鮮半島兩國(guó)相安無(wú)事的大背景下，現(xiàn)代汽車(chē)（Hyundai）及其姊妹品牌起亞（Kia）在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)異軍突起,，日益受到美國(guó)消費(fèi)者追捧,。而隨著韓國(guó)汽車(chē)廠商本土外交緊張局勢(shì)的加劇，一些人不禁要問(wèn),，這種緊張局勢(shì)會(huì)對(duì)現(xiàn)代汽車(chē)蒸蒸日上的全球業(yè)務(wù)造成什么影響,。

????現(xiàn)代汽車(chē)集團(tuán)（Hyundai Motor Group）的總部位于韓國(guó)。目前韓朝之間可能爆發(fā)的武裝沖突將嚴(yán)重威脅現(xiàn)代在韓國(guó)的生產(chǎn),。不管這個(gè)地區(qū)爆發(fā)哪種形式的沖突,，都將危及鄰近海上與空中航線，而日本,、中國(guó)和美國(guó)都必然會(huì)卷入這場(chǎng)沖突,。立志要成為全球一線品牌的現(xiàn)代汽車(chē)近幾年在全球大舉擴(kuò)張，僅過(guò)去十年間就在阿拉巴馬州和喬治亞州建立了兩個(gè)裝配工廠。這些工廠主要依靠當(dāng)?shù)氐牧悴考?yīng)商供貨,。目前現(xiàn)代有57%的產(chǎn)能位于韓國(guó)以外的地區(qū)。

????現(xiàn)代汽車(chē)美國(guó)分公司發(fā)言人克里斯?霍斯福德指出,，現(xiàn)代在美國(guó)最暢銷(xiāo)的三款車(chē)型——索納塔,、伊蘭特和新勝達(dá)——都是在美國(guó)本土生產(chǎn)的。因此,，就算現(xiàn)代在韓國(guó)的運(yùn)營(yíng)可能出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題,，現(xiàn)代和起亞在美國(guó)的運(yùn)營(yíng)也不會(huì)受到太大沖擊。

????今年3月,，現(xiàn)代在美國(guó)的銷(xiāo)量為96,024輛,，其中三款暢銷(xiāo)車(chē)型就達(dá)到69,977輛。今年,，現(xiàn)代的銷(xiāo)量增長(zhǎng)了2.3%,。為現(xiàn)代汽車(chē)和其他韓國(guó)公司提供咨詢服務(wù)的韓國(guó)商業(yè)和文化專(zhuān)家唐?薩瑟頓稱：“韓國(guó)人和那些在20世紀(jì)50年代初發(fā)生的沖突中受到過(guò)傷害的人不同，他們更愿意平息當(dāng)前與朝鮮之間的緊張局勢(shì),?！碑?dāng)然，1973年的時(shí)候,，很多以色列人,，包括政府官員在內(nèi)，都絕不相信敘利亞和埃及敢于發(fā)動(dòng)攻擊,，直到這一天真的到來(lái),。

????薩瑟頓稱，重創(chuàng)日本工業(yè)及主要汽車(chē)廠商的2011年大海嘯對(duì)韓國(guó)汽車(chē)業(yè)巨頭具有深遠(yuǎn)影響,。這次巨災(zāi)過(guò)后,，包括現(xiàn)代汽車(chē)在內(nèi)的幾大韓國(guó)公司都決定設(shè)立海外應(yīng)急中心，以便在急需時(shí)這些中心能充當(dāng)總部,。薩瑟頓認(rèn)為,，只有等到韓國(guó)找到某種方式，讓朝鮮不失體面地放下咄咄逼人的架勢(shì)時(shí),，兩國(guó)的緊張局勢(shì)才會(huì)緩解,。他說(shuō)：“這是過(guò)去韓國(guó)一直用來(lái)緩和半島緊張局勢(shì)的策略?！?/p>

????上周,，朝鮮阻止韓國(guó)工人進(jìn)入聯(lián)合工業(yè)區(qū)，這是兩國(guó)關(guān)系驟然吃緊的最新信號(hào),。而韓國(guó)工人進(jìn)入聯(lián)合工業(yè)區(qū)本來(lái)是兩國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)合作的象征,。先前朝鮮曾經(jīng)威脅要對(duì)美國(guó)發(fā)起先發(fā)制人的打擊，導(dǎo)致美國(guó)直接派出軍機(jī)飛抵韓國(guó)待命。同時(shí),，美國(guó)還開(kāi)始在朝韓地區(qū)部署導(dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng),。

????對(duì)有些人來(lái)說(shuō)，朝鮮半島爆發(fā)軍事沖突即使并非難以想象,，也還是顯得不太可能,。但不可能的事件往往會(huì)像黑天鵝一樣不期而至，也就是說(shuō),，完全出乎意料時(shí)就已經(jīng)大禍臨頭,。去年，中日兩國(guó)突然為了幾個(gè)小島發(fā)生爭(zhēng)執(zhí),，導(dǎo)致了一場(chǎng)外交風(fēng)波,。中國(guó)的汽車(chē)消費(fèi)者當(dāng)時(shí)立即開(kāi)始抵制豐田汽車(chē)（Toyota）和其他日本品牌，最終導(dǎo)致日本企業(yè)收入下降,。這一緊張局勢(shì)后來(lái)得到緩和,，不過(guò)日本品牌產(chǎn)品的銷(xiāo)量至今都沒(méi)有完全恢復(fù)。

????現(xiàn)代汽車(chē)【還有電子產(chǎn)業(yè)巨頭三星公司（Samsung）】可能是韓國(guó)工業(yè)實(shí)力最令人自豪,、也最顯而易見(jiàn)的象征,。正因?yàn)槿绱耍瑢?duì)經(jīng)常像是要決意自我毀滅的朝鮮來(lái)說(shuō),，現(xiàn)代汽車(chē)很可能是非常富有吸引力的打擊目標(biāo),。幸運(yùn)的是，現(xiàn)代汽車(chē)的全球布局似乎能為它提供一些保護(hù),。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????The remarkable rise in popularity of Hyundai and sister brand Kia with U.S. car buyers has largely unfolded over the past few years against a backdrop of calm on the Korean peninsula. As tensions rise in the manufacturer's homeland, some are asking how unrest might affect Hyundai's surging global business.

????The prospect of armed conflict between North and South Korea threatens manufacturing in the south, where Hyundai Motor Group is located. Japan, China, and the U.S. almost certainly would be drawn into any regional conflict that jeopardized sea lanes and air traffic. Hyundai Motor, in its bid for top-tier global status, has spread operations worldwide, constructing two U.S. vehicle assembly plants in the past decade, in Alabama and Georgia. The plants rely mostly on parts suppliers that also operate locally. About 57% of Hyundai's production capacity resides outside South Korea.

????Chris Hosford, a spokesman for Hyundai Motor in the U.S., noted that Hyundai's three top-selling vehicle models in the U.S. -- Sonata, Elantra, and Santa Fe -- are built locally. Presumably, Hyundai and Kia's U.S. operations wouldn't bear the full brunt of any potential disruption in South Korea.

????Through March of this year, Hyundai's three top sellers accounted for 69,977 of 96,024 vehicles sold in the U.S. Hyundai unit sales are up 2.3% for the year. Don Southerton, an expert on Korean business and culture who consults for Hyundai and other Korean companies, said "South Koreans, other than those scarred by the conflict of the early 1950s, tend to play down current tensions with the north." Of course, many Israelis, including government officials, never believed that Syria and Egypt would dare attack in 1973 -- until the day it happened.

????The 2011 tsunami that disrupted Japanese industry, including the country's major automakers, did have a profound effect on Korean planners, Southerton said. Following the disaster several big South Korean corporations, including Hyundai, decided to set up emergency offshore centers that could serve as headquarters if needed. Southerton thinks tensions could continue until South Korea finds a way to allow North Korea to back down gracefully from its aggressive stance. It's "a tactic South Korea has followed in the past to ease tension on the peninsula," he said.

????The latest sign of tension came this week as North Korea blocked the entry of hundreds of South Korean workers into a joint industrial zone that had been a symbol of economic cooperation. Previously North Korea threatened a preemptive strike against the U.S., prompting a flyover of the south by U.S. military aircraft. The U.S., meanwhile, is moving missile defense systems into the region.

????For some, military conflict on the Korean peninsula remains improbable, if not unthinkable. But improbable events can arrive like black swans, that is to say, unexpectedly. Last year China and Japan suddenly were at odds over sovereignty of several small islands, creating a diplomatic furor. Car buyers in China immediately began boycotting Toyota (TM) and other Japanese brands, which translated into lower earnings. The tension has since calmed, though sales of Japanese brands in China have not totally recovered.

????Hyundai (along with electronics titan Samsung) might be the one of the proudest and most visible symbols of South Korean industrial might. As such, the automotive brand could be a tempting target for a North Korean regime that often seems determined to self-destruct. Fortunately, Hyundai's global scale seems to afford it some protection.