??? 盡管如此,，中國的金融混亂程度可能仍然只有30-40,。和1978年相比有了更多的不確定性，但比2007年的美國安定,。這是因為,，只要政府確實還能通過發(fā)行貨幣來填補壞賬留下的窟窿，金融體系就不太會受到影響,。不得已時,，政府還可以把影子銀行貸款全都買下來。估計這些貸款的余額為3.7萬億美元,。貿(mào)易伙伴和外國投資者可能會感到擔(dān)心,，還可能出現(xiàn)道德風(fēng)險，但社會不會失控,。

????中國并不能完全抵御對自身有傷害的恐慌和無知,。環(huán)境惡化可能引發(fā)混亂，腐敗也是如此,。無收益放貸和過度管制都會造成人們被迫接受過多他們不想要的東西,，而想要的東西又得到的太少，這就可能對實體經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生不利影響,。但只要金融混亂程度仍然較低,，即使真的出現(xiàn)信貸危機，也不一定會引發(fā)經(jīng)濟危機,。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????Despite that, China is probably only a 30-40 on the Financial Chaos index -- more uncertain than in 1978, but less than the United States in 2007. That's because as long as the state can credibly bury bad debts with new money, the financial system can remain more or less whole. At a push, the government could buy all outstanding "shadow bank" lending, estimated at $3.7 trillion. Trade partners and foreign investors would worry; moral hazard would result. But there wouldn't be a social collapse.

????China isn't totally immune to self-destructive fear and ignorance. Environmental degradation could provoke chaos; so could corruption. Unproductive lending and too much control could harm the real economy, by giving people too much of what they don't want, and too little of what they do. But provided the level of financial chaos stays low, a credit crisis, even if it does happen, needn't be an economic one.