外部壓力日增,,蘋(píng)果急需變招
????本周二,,蘋(píng)果(Apple)這樣告訴投資者:下個(gè)季度的利潤(rùn)率、收入和凈利潤(rùn)都會(huì)低于投資者此前的預(yù)期,。蘋(píng)果沒(méi)有談到的是:沒(méi)有任何關(guān)于新的產(chǎn)品品類或人事變動(dòng)的具體計(jì)劃,,既沒(méi)有對(duì)長(zhǎng)期服務(wù)的管理團(tuán)隊(duì)進(jìn)行調(diào)整,也沒(méi)有填補(bǔ)什么長(zhǎng)期空缺職位,。隨后,,蘋(píng)果股價(jià)在盤(pán)后交易中反彈。 ????哦,對(duì)了,,還有一件事:蘋(píng)果宣布將大幅增加派息和股票回購(gòu),,還將首次借入相當(dāng)?shù)馁Y金來(lái)提高股東的資本回報(bào)率。事實(shí)上,,蘋(píng)果在這次面向投資者的業(yè)績(jī)電話會(huì)議上甚至夸口,,蘋(píng)果將成為全球派息最高的公司之一。想想:超高……派息,? ????還有,,從史蒂夫?喬布斯手中接過(guò)蘋(píng)果公司CEO一職、怎么干都吃力不討好的蒂姆?庫(kù)克還宣布,,蘋(píng)果計(jì)劃在“今秋和2014年”推出“非常出色”的新產(chǎn)品,,并最終推出新的產(chǎn)品品類。今年秋天,?如果是這樣,,那么6月份的蘋(píng)果開(kāi)發(fā)人員大會(huì)從新產(chǎn)品角度而言將毫無(wú)亮點(diǎn),蘋(píng)果將經(jīng)歷沒(méi)有新產(chǎn)品推出的一年,。 ????新產(chǎn)品對(duì)于蘋(píng)果是唯一真正重要的東西,。利潤(rùn)率也在下降,因?yàn)樾庐a(chǎn)品侵占了老產(chǎn)品的市場(chǎng)和消費(fèi)者,。iPad Mini的成功對(duì)于蘋(píng)果的財(cái)務(wù)是一項(xiàng)災(zāi)難:iPad Mini的利潤(rùn)率低于比它大一號(hào)的iPad,。但這只是一方面。蘋(píng)果稱,,相當(dāng)一部分的iPad Mini買家是首次購(gòu)入iPad產(chǎn)品,這很重要,,因?yàn)樗鼮樘O(píng)果帶來(lái)了新客戶,,所有現(xiàn)有客戶都會(huì)是下一款杰出產(chǎn)品的目標(biāo)客戶——不管新產(chǎn)品是啥樣。記得嗎,,蘋(píng)果早就這么干過(guò),,當(dāng)初iPod Shuffle用戶就比iPod用戶的花費(fèi)要低。但iPhone出現(xiàn)后,,他們都得要一臺(tái),。 ????在某種程度上,蘋(píng)果說(shuō)起自己的時(shí)候有些妄自尊大,。問(wèn)起他對(duì)智能手機(jī)屏幕越來(lái)越大這個(gè)趨勢(shì)怎么看時(shí)(這個(gè)問(wèn)題他顯然已經(jīng)被問(wèn)到過(guò)很多次了),,蒂姆?庫(kù)克表示,他認(rèn)為蘋(píng)果iPhone 5的顯示屏是現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品中最好的,,大屏幕并不適合所有人,。估計(jì)在蘋(píng)果能夠提供一款大屏手機(jī)之前,他會(huì)一直這么說(shuō)。我們會(huì)關(guān)注隨著消費(fèi)者對(duì)三星(Samsung)新款Galaxy S4手機(jī)的反應(yīng)變化,,他的言辭有何變化,。圍繞Galaxy S4手機(jī)的諸多報(bào)道才剛剛見(jiàn)諸媒體。 ????其他方面,,蘋(píng)果的自我表述與現(xiàn)實(shí)相當(dāng)吻合,。庫(kù)克知道持有1,450億美元現(xiàn)金實(shí)在是太多了。因此,,他打算增加對(duì)股東的回饋,。他知道,在當(dāng)前利率這么低的情況下,,像蘋(píng)果這樣優(yōu)質(zhì)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表,,不貸款,不把利潤(rùn)與股東分享,,是沒(méi)有意義的,。因此,他準(zhǔn)備舉債——這可是史蒂夫?喬布斯最不愿做的事了,。 ????一旦蘋(píng)果開(kāi)口,,世界都會(huì)停下來(lái)傾聽(tīng)。問(wèn)題是蘋(píng)果不是總有東西可以講,,周二就是這樣,。當(dāng)然,不能假定蘋(píng)果將來(lái)也不會(huì)有什么可講,。改變的壓力顯然正在不斷加大,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) |
????Here's what Apple told investors about its business Tuesday: Margins, revenues, and profits in the next quarter all will be worse than investors had expected. Here's what Apple didn't address Wednesday: Specific plans for any new product categories or personnel moves, either among its long-serving management team or to fill at least one long-vacant hole. The stock rallied in after-hours trading. ????Oh yeah, one more thing: Apple (AAPL) said it will dramatically increase its dividend, its share buybacks, and, for the first time, that it will borrow significant amounts of money to fuel this return of capital to shareholders. Apple actually bragged on its earnings call with investors that it will be one of the biggest payers of dividends in the world. Think: Insanely great … dividends? ????There's more. Tim Cook, the man with the most unenviable task in the history of business, that of following Steve Jobs, said Apple planned to release "great" new products in the "fall and throughout 2014," and, eventually, new categories. The fall? If true, meaning that if Apple's big meeting with developers in June is a ho-hum event from a new-product perspective, then Apple will have gone a year without new product introductions. ????New products at Apple is the only thing that matters. Margins are eroding because new products cannibalize older products. The success of the iPad Mini is a financial penalty for Apple: It's a less profitable product than its bigger cousin. But that is beside the point. Apple said a significant number of iPad Mini buyers are first-time iPad buyers, and this is what is important, adding new Apple customers to its lists of people to market the next great products -- whatever their configuration. Remember, Apple has done this before. iPod Shuffle customers spent less than they did on iPods. They also had to have an iPhone when it came out. ????In some ways, Apple sounds delusional when it talks about itself. Asked, as he has been many times before, for his take on the trend to pack bigger screens into smartphones, Tim Cook said he thinks Apple's iPhone 5 has the best screen in existence and that big screens aren't for everyone. He'll keep saying that until Apple offers a phone with a bigger screen. And we'll see how that sounds when we witness customer reactions to the new Samsung Galaxy S4, a product whose media blitz has just begun. ????In other ways, Apple shows that it is very much in tune with reality. Cook knows keeping $145 billion lying around is too much. So he'll give more back to shareholders. He knows that with interest rates as low as they are it makes no sense for a company with Apple's balance sheet not to borrow money and share the benefits with shareholders. So he's taking on debt -- Steve Jobs's aversion to the stuff be damned. ????The world stops and listens when Apple talks. The problem is that Apple doesn't always have something to say, and Tuesday was one of those days. It would be foolish to assume Apple isn't ever going to have anything to say again. But the pressure certainly is building. |