戰(zhàn)火中的物價

????收緊包圍圈的過程中,，反政府武裝沒有讓這座城市挨餓。其中顯然有政治考慮：起義的目的是為了贏得民心,。但這樣做也有賺錢的考慮,。戰(zhàn)爭創(chuàng)造出了新的市場，戰(zhàn)爭長短取決于他們（而且在一定程度上也是被他們延長的,。）起義者需要獲得資金支持,。圍城帶來了大量的商機(jī)。市中心仍需要食物,，尤其需要電力和汽油,。控制供應(yīng)線的反對派尋租團(tuán)體從圍城開始就對進(jìn)城貨物征收附加費,，加劇了戰(zhàn)時通脹,。

????西紅柿價格已經(jīng)漲了兩倍,。燃料價格是過去的四倍。在去年12月和今年1月的面粉短缺時期,，過去只賣25敘利亞鎊的面包一度漲到了500敘利亞鎊,。電力短缺帶動了利潤豐厚的發(fā)電機(jī)買賣。

????阿勒頗的消費者已經(jīng)感受到了這種壓力,。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁和貨幣貶值,，西方進(jìn)口商品不是買不到，就是買不起,。雖然敘利亞鎊在街上還能用,，但它迅速貶值的趨勢導(dǎo)致了外匯需求劇增。戰(zhàn)前,，1美元兌換約50敘利亞鎊,，如今已升至近140敘利亞鎊。

????資金支持(以匯款形式)仍在流入阿勒頗,。很多公司都已關(guān)門,，但銀行繼續(xù)營業(yè)。據(jù)西聯(lián)匯款（Western Union）的一位女發(fā)言人稱,，雖然2012年向敘利亞的匯款有所減少,，但匯款仍是阿勒頗的一條重要生命線，為圍困阿勒頗的戰(zhàn)斗提供資金支持,。

????在圍城經(jīng)濟(jì)中,，常規(guī)做法往往行不通過，取而代之的是權(quán)益變通之道,。自去年冬季出現(xiàn)食物短缺后,，反對派武裝已準(zhǔn)許面粉運抵這個城市的面包店。而且在奪下阿勒頗的發(fā)電廠之后,，他們也與政府協(xié)商如何和政府控制的城區(qū)共享電力,。實際上，政府和反對派武裝已建立起一套秩序,，讓這個城市中的生活能夠繼續(xù)下去,，即使雙方現(xiàn)在仍然在斗個你死我活。

為革命籌資

????敘利亞的反對斗爭也轉(zhuǎn)變成了一場籌資競賽,。據(jù)敘利亞博客BSyria和Edward Dark稱,，一些有想法的反對派已經(jīng)制作了推廣視頻，并以富有的海灣酋長為自己命名,。在更大層面上,，反對派領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人正對外部國家施壓，要求加大財力支持,。像土耳其等地區(qū)強(qiáng)國已對此作出了回應(yīng),。

????雖然近幾周美國一直在推進(jìn)要為反對派武裝提供更多援助,，但奧巴馬政府絕不會承諾為反對派提供超出“非殺傷性”援助外的任何幫助，他們的擔(dān)心可能是這些武器最終會落入反西方的伊斯蘭教主義者手中,。

????這樣的擔(dān)憂不是毫無根據(jù),。敘利亞當(dāng)政政府固然殘酷，但反對派也同樣殘酷,，而且越來越激進(jìn),。上個月,，知名的反對派al-Nusra Front就公開宣稱擁護(hù)伊拉克基地組織,。渴望獲得西方支持的競爭對手?jǐn)⒗麃喿杂绍娏⒓幢硎?，不支持al-Nusra,。但是，敘利亞自由軍也很難撇清與宗教的干系：它的士兵和高級指揮官都是伊斯蘭主義者,。正如《紐約時報》(New York Times)上個月所強(qiáng)調(diào)的那樣,，敘利亞談不上有真正意義上的非宗教反對派。與此同時,，整個敘利亞境內(nèi)那些由反對派控制的城鎮(zhèn)正在建立伊斯蘭法庭,，要求婦女佩戴伊斯蘭頭巾。

????“我知道Blond Duck是獨裁者,，”一名要求匿名的敘利亞年輕人表示,，Blond Duck是阿薩德總統(tǒng)的綽號?！暗磳ε?，他們也不是為了自由。你真的相信伊斯蘭武裝份子能夠帶來自由嗎,？”

????像很多深陷當(dāng)權(quán)政府和反對派爭斗的敘利亞年輕人一樣,，他表示，他只想要安定,。

????無論結(jié)果是什么,，他可能都會非常失望。對于大多數(shù)分析師而言,，問題不是敘利亞政府會不會倒臺,，而是什么時候倒臺。在這之后,，借用法國作家雅克?馬萊?迪龐的名言,，持續(xù)的擔(dān)憂是革命將吞噬自己取得的成果?！叭绻鸅lond Duck垮臺,，”那位敘利亞年輕人說,，敘利亞將進(jìn)入全面的無政府狀態(tài)。

????如果是這樣,，這場在阿勒頗市中心外圍進(jìn)行了數(shù)月的戰(zhàn)爭最終依然會將戰(zhàn)火燒入稱重這片尚且和平的土地,。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????What price civil war?

????Even as they tighten the vise, the rebels are not starving the city. There are obvious political reasons: An insurgency's aim is to win hearts and minds. Yet there is also a profit motive. War creates new markets, it depends on them (and in some cases is prolonged by them). Insurgents need to be financed. Conveniently, a siege generates ample commercial opportunities. The city center still needs food, and it badly wants electricity and gasoline. Rent-seeking opposition groups, which now control supply lines, have imposed surcharges on goods going in since the start of the siege, exacerbating natural wartime inflation.

????So the price of a tomato climbed 200%. Fuel prices quadrupled. During a flour shortage in December and January, a loaf of bread -- which once cost 25 SYP -- shot up to 500. Electricity shortages animated a profitable trade in power generators.

????Aleppo consumers have felt the squeeze. Amid economic sanctions and currency depreciation, Western imported goods are unavailable or unaffordable. While the Syrian Pound (SYP) is still used in the streets, its downward spiral has sharply increased demand for foreign currencies. Prior to the war, the U.S. dollar bought around 50 SYP. Today, it buys closer to 140.

????Financial support, in the form of remittances, still flows to Aleppo. Many businesses have closed, but banks remain open. While money transfers to Syria declined in 2012, according to a Western Union (WU) spokeswoman, remittances remain an important lifeline to the city, and feed the war raging around it.

????In a siege economy, formal institutions often break down and are replaced by unsustainable improvisations. Since last winter's shortages, opposition forces have allowed flour to reach the city's bakeries, and, after capturing Aleppo's power plant, negotiated the sharing of electrical current with regime-controlled neighborhoods. In effect, regime and opposition forces have established procedures that allow life in the city to continue, even as they work tirelessly to kill one another.

Fundraising for revolution

????The Syrian opposition's campaign has also turned into a race for funding. Enterprising rebel units have developed promotional videos and named themselves after wealthy Gulf sheikhs, according to Syrian bloggers BSyria and Edward Dark. On a larger scale, opposition leaders are pressing outside states to step up their financial support. Regional powers like Turkey have answered that call.

????While the U.S. has been pushed in recent weeks to provide greater assistance to rebel groups, the Obama Administration is loathe to pledge anything more than "non-lethal" aid to the rebels, likely out of fear that arms would end up in the hands of anti-Western Islamists.

????Such fears are not baseless. While the Syrian regime is brutal, the rebels are just as brutal, and increasingly radical. Last month, a prominent opposition group, the al-Nusra Front, openly declared its allegiance to al-Qaeda of Iraq. The rival FSA, keen to win Western support, swiftly disavowed al-Nusra. However, the FSA is hardly secular: Its ranks and senior command posts are filled by Islamists. As the New York Times emphasized last month, Syria has no meaningful secular opposition groups to speak of. Meanwhile, throughout the country, rebel-controlled towns are establishing Islamic courts and requiring women to wear hijab.

????"I know the Blond Duck is a dictator," said one young Syrian who requested anonymity, using a common nickname for President Assad. "But the opposition, they're not about freedom, either. Do you really think that Jihadists will bring freedom?"

????Like many young Syrians caught between the regime and rebels, he said, he simply wanted stability.

????Whatever the outcome, he may be sadly disappointed. For most analysts, it's not a question of whether the regime will fall, but when. Following that, the persistent fear is that the revolution, to use Jacques Mallet du Pan's phrase, will devour its children. "If the Blond Duck falls," the young Syrian said, "there will be complete anarchy."

????And if that happens, a war that has for months swirled around the still-peaceful center of Aleppo will finally rush in.