????北京大學(xué)光華管理學(xué)院（the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University）院長蔡洪濱注意到,，談到如今中國在社會、環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟上面臨的巨大挑戰(zhàn)時,，往往會出現(xiàn)這樣的情況：“經(jīng)常到中國來的人都相當(dāng)樂觀,，很少或從未來過的人則會說中國已經(jīng)處于崩潰的邊緣?！?/p>

????不用說,，和本周五上午參加2013年成都《財富》全球論壇中國經(jīng)濟變化討論會的大多數(shù)嘉賓觀點一致，蔡洪濱在這個問題上持樂觀態(tài)度,。但所有與會者都沒有低估今后挑戰(zhàn)的嚴(yán)峻性,。

????美國前財政部長、高盛（Goldman Sachs）前首席執(zhí)行官漢克?保爾森說：“有一點最讓我關(guān)注,，而且中國政府也已經(jīng)意識到了這一點，那就是目前中國的經(jīng)濟增長模式正在失去動力,，需要重新為改革注入活力,，這顯而易見?！?/p>

????雖然和全球標(biāo)準(zhǔn)相比,，中國的經(jīng)濟增長依然迅猛,。但2010年以來，中國的經(jīng)濟增長率不斷大幅下降,。2013年第一季度,，中國經(jīng)濟增速為7.7%，低于之前兩位數(shù)的增長水平,。保爾森指出：中國“過于依賴政府主導(dǎo)的投資,、基建和制造業(yè)，過于依賴出口,，內(nèi)部增長不足,。服務(wù)業(yè)需要為中國經(jīng)濟做出更多貢獻?！?/p>

????麥肯錫（McKinsey）全球總裁鮑達民則表示，盡管如此,，他仍是“樂觀派”,，原因是中國經(jīng)濟有一股“根本動力”，那就是城市的快速擴張,。長期以來,，麥肯錫一直預(yù)計到2030年中國的城市人口將達到10億。鮑達民承認(rèn),，這是個預(yù)測,，無法確定，而且農(nóng)村人口向城市的大量轉(zhuǎn)移實際上也可能有所放緩,。但他仍然認(rèn)為,，中國的城鎮(zhèn)化轉(zhuǎn)型才剛剛完成起步階段，“這個進程將繼續(xù)進行下去,?！保c擊此處了解麥肯錫對中國的其他觀點）

????保爾森警告說，經(jīng)濟增長方式將對環(huán)境產(chǎn)生重大影響,。為實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟繁榮,，中國已經(jīng)在空氣污染和水污染方面付出了沉重代價。這對中國來說是個嚴(yán)峻的問題,，而且可能給世界其他地區(qū)帶來災(zāi)難性影響,，除非中國建設(shè)燃煤發(fā)電廠的腳步能有所停滯，或者通過其他方式來降低對化石燃料的依賴,。

????保爾森指出,，中國新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人“既理解民營經(jīng)濟的重要性，也了解改革的必要性”,，對此他基本表示贊賞,。但他說,，中國政府需要更多地參與環(huán)保，這方面的工作不能減少,?！爸袊枰⒎ǎ倚枰涞綄嵦??！彼€認(rèn)為，在“當(dāng)?shù)卣芯Υ僭鲩L”的情況下,，地方上很難做到這一點,。

????保爾森最后說：“好消息是（新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的）預(yù)期很高。壞消息是這些預(yù)期幾乎不可能成為現(xiàn)實,。他們是一個強有力的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)班子,。他們必須非常堅定?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????Cai Hongbin, dean of the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, has noticed a pattern in the way people respond to the stiff challenges -- social, environmental and economic -- facing modern China: "Those who come often to China are pretty optimistic. Those who rarely or never come say China is collapsing."

????Cai, needless to say, is optimistic, as were most of the panelists who took part in a conversation about China's changing economy at the 2013 Fortune Gobal Forum Friday morning in Chengdu. But none underestimated the enormity of the challenge that lies ahead.

????"What hits me right smack between the eyes is the same thing the Chinese government knows," said former US Treasury Secretary and former Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO Hank Paulson. "The current growth model is running out of gas. They're going to need to reinvigorate reform, it's clear."

????China's growth rate, while still robust by global standards, has slowed dramatically since 2010; it was 7.7% in the first quarter of 2013, down from recent double digits. China is "too reliant on state-led investment and infrastructure and manufacturing," Paulson continued. "Too reliant on exports. There's not enough domestic-led growth. It needs more from the services industry."

????Dominic Barton, global managing director at McKinsey, said he's "bullish" nevertheless, based on what he called China's "underlying force of growth" -- rapidly expanding cities. McKinsey has long predicted that China's urban population will reach one billion by 2030. The number is a "projection," not a certainty, Barton allowed; and the flood from the countryside may in fact be slowing somewhat. But China is still just at "the end of the beginning" of its urban transformation, he maintained. "This thing will still move." (See more from McKinsey on China)

????How that growth is accomplished, Paulson warned, will have serious environmental implications. China has already paid a steep price for prosperity in dirty air and dirty water -- serious problems for China, and potentially catastrophic for the rest of the world unless China can somehow stop building coal-fired power plants and otherwise lessen its reliance on fossil fuels.

????Paulson applauded China's new leadership for "both understanding the importance of the private sector and the need for reform" generally. But he said the government needs to be more involved, not less, when it comes safeguarding the environment. "You need to have laws and you need to enforce them," Paulson said, adding that that's hard to do at the local level when "local leaders are focused on driving growth."

????Paulson's conclusion: "The good news is that expectations [of the new leadership] are high. The bad news is that it will be almost impossible to meet those expectations. They're strong leaders. They're going to need to be very strong."