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給埃及新統(tǒng)治者的9條建議

給埃及新統(tǒng)治者的9條建議

Mohamed A. El-Erian 2013-07-09
埃及預(yù)計(jì)即將迎來(lái)新的統(tǒng)治者。無(wú)論是誰(shuí),,要想帶領(lǐng)這個(gè)古老的國(guó)度走向穩(wěn)定和繁榮,,都必須從埃及的歷史和近幾年的現(xiàn)實(shí)中汲取教訓(xùn)。

????允許草根活動(dòng)和民間團(tuán)體興旺發(fā)展。

????生機(jī)勃勃和一帆風(fēng)順的民主是自下而上建立和維持的,,而非自上而下,。這也形成了一股從下向上傳到管理層的關(guān)鍵信息流,而它所包含的另一組相互制衡的因素則有利于支撐有效持久的民主轉(zhuǎn)型,。

????造訪今天的埃及,,你會(huì)驚訝于自2011年革命以來(lái)發(fā)起的新草根活動(dòng)數(shù)量之多。無(wú)論是教育,,還是衛(wèi)生領(lǐng)域的努力,,它們都改善了埃及最貧窮和最脆弱人口的福祉,雖然改善程度還不那么顯著,。

????即使在穆巴拉克下臺(tái)后,,這些個(gè)別的成功案例也在繼續(xù)沖擊著這個(gè)抵制公民責(zé)任下移的體制。如果能夠把一場(chǎng)沒(méi)有必要的逆風(fēng)轉(zhuǎn)化為助推的順風(fēng),,埃及新的統(tǒng)治階層就能為更切實(shí)的進(jìn)步和參與做好準(zhǔn)備,。

????為國(guó)內(nèi)民間團(tuán)體創(chuàng)建更好的溝通機(jī)制,爭(zhēng)取離散猶太人的參與,。

????不要低估離散猶太人為了幫助實(shí)現(xiàn)革命目標(biāo)而貢獻(xiàn)時(shí)間和財(cái)力的意愿,。

????別忘了,他們中相當(dāng)一部分人來(lái)自于為了遠(yuǎn)離壓制,,尋找機(jī)會(huì)而從埃及移民出去的家庭。他們非常欽佩勇敢的埃及人,,因?yàn)檎呛笳叩膱?jiān)定決心為埃及追求包容性繁榮道路帶來(lái)了可能,;他們也想要出一份力。

????快速平穩(wěn)地應(yīng)對(duì)國(guó)家面臨的嚴(yán)峻經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn),。

????糟糕的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)是國(guó)民挫折感甚至某些地區(qū)絕望情緒的主要原因,,這一點(diǎn)可以理解。此外,,埃及經(jīng)濟(jì)改善等不起,。

????由于本身缺乏投資、增長(zhǎng)乏力,、通貨膨脹,、預(yù)結(jié)算收支赤字、外匯壓力和資本外逃帶來(lái)的惡性循環(huán),,埃及每天都在深淵里進(jìn)一步下滑,。忽視這種情況越久,這一代和以后的埃及人付出的代價(jià)就越大,。

????面對(duì)令人擔(dān)憂的高失業(yè)率,、低購(gòu)買力、過(guò)于寬松且有漏洞的社會(huì)保障體系以及嚴(yán)重的貧富差距,,任何通情達(dá)理的公民都不會(huì)要求這些由來(lái)已久,、根深蒂固的問(wèn)題能在一夜之間得到解決,。但埃及人極度渴望見(jiàn)到一個(gè)經(jīng)過(guò)充分溝通的經(jīng)濟(jì)愿景,以及各個(gè)領(lǐng)域能為大眾所理解和監(jiān)控的年度目標(biāo),。

????到目前為止相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)的一段時(shí)間里,,埃及無(wú)法拿出可信的中期經(jīng)濟(jì)架構(gòu)。近幾屆政府選擇依賴于友好國(guó)家提供的特別援助措施和例外資金,,而不是設(shè)立清晰的目標(biāo),,同民眾交流戰(zhàn)略方向,同時(shí)拿出可靠的一攬子政策,。在這個(gè)過(guò)程中,,它們竟以為國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)治理的責(zé)任能轉(zhuǎn)包給國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)這樣的外部組織。這是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的,。

????Enable grass-root activities and civil society to flourish.

????Vibrant and successful democracies are built and sustained from the bottom up, and not from the top down. This also provides a critical flow of information up to the ruling class; and it constitutes an additional set of checks and balances to underpin a successful and durable democratic transition.

????Visit Egypt today and you will be impressed by the number of new grass root activities that have been initiated since the 2011 revolution. Be it education or health, they play an important role in improving -- albeit still at the margin -- the wellbeing of the poorest and most vulnerable segments of the population.

????Even after President Mubarak's removal, these individual successes continue to battle a system that struggles with the delegation of civic responsibility. By converting an unnecessary headwind into an enabling tailwind, Egypt's new ruling elites can provide for much greater on-the-ground progress and engagement.

????Facilitate the involvement of the diaspora by creating better transmission mechanisms to domestic civil society.

????Do not underestimate the diaspora's willingness to devote time and financial resources to assist the fulfillment of the revolution's objectives.

????Remember, quite a few of them originate from families that emigrated out of Egypt to overcome repression and find opportunities. They greatly admire the brave Egyptians whose steadfast determination is now offering the country possibility of pursuing the road to inclusive prosperity; and they wish to help.

????Make rapid and steady progress in addressing the country's deep economic challenges.

????Awful economic conditions have been important contributors to the sense of national frustration and even despair in some quarters, and understandably so. Moreover, Egypt's economy does not have the luxury of time.

????Every day, it is being pulled further down by a self-feeding vicious cycle of insufficient investment, anemic growth, inflation, budget and balance of payments deficits, foreign exchange pressures and capital flight. The longer the situation is neglected, the greater the cost for both current and future generations.

????No reasonable citizen expects overnight solutions to the long-standing and deeply entrenched problems of alarmingly high unemployment, insufficient purchasing power, overly-stretched and porous social safety nets, and excessive income and wealth inequality. But the people are desperate for a well-communicated economic vision, accompanied by yearly targets for variables that are commonly understood and monitored.

????For quite a while now, Egypt has lacked a credible medium-term economic framework. Rather than establish a clear destination, communicate a strategic direction and deliver a credible policy package, recent governments have opted for ad hoc measures and exceptional funding from friendly countries. In the process, they have led themselves to believe that the responsibility of economic governance can somehow be outsourced to external organizations such as the International Monetary Fund. It cannot.

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