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高盛利潤翻番難阻股價下挫

高盛利潤翻番難阻股價下挫

Stephen Gandel 2013-07-18
受到股票和債券發(fā)行激增的推動,,高盛今年第二季度利潤同比增長一倍多,,達到了19億美元,。不過,,盡管高盛利潤激增,,但仍然不足以消除投資者對于客戶退縮,、利率上升和收益動蕩的擔憂,。高盛發(fā)布第二季度業(yè)績之后,,它的股價反而下挫2美元還多。

????受股票和債券發(fā)行激增的推動,高盛(Goldman Sachs)二季度利潤同比增長一倍多,,達到了19億美元,。交易收入較上年同期也有所增長,但低于一季度的水平,,可能反映了近期利率上漲導致的客戶退縮,。

????“當季客戶的風險喜好大幅波動,”高盛首席財務官哈維?舒瓦茨在該行的業(yè)績電話會議上告訴分析師和投資者,?!拔覀兊目蛻粽跈嗪?,美國經(jīng)濟回升能否抵消其他地區(qū)的放緩?!?/p>

????高盛自身看起來已經(jīng)抓住了美國經(jīng)濟改善和股市回暖的機遇,。二季度,這家銀行的股票承銷和交易傭金收入同比分別大增55%和25%,。債券市場承銷傭金收入也增長了40%,。高盛自營股票投資(部分投資于私有公司)當季也貢獻了5億美元的增長。

????整體而言,,高盛二季度每股收益3.70美元,,大大高于分析師們此前預期的2.82美元。二季度收入同比增長30%至86億美元,。而且,,此次利潤大增出現(xiàn)在高盛似乎已經(jīng)決定上調(diào)早已不菲的員工薪酬之際。今年迄今為止,,高盛已將一筆付給31,700名員工的80多億美元薪酬費用入賬,,相當于人均252,366美元。這筆錢包括福利,、薪水以及尚未實際支付的獎金,,且這個數(shù)字高于去年上半年的226,006美元。

????但高盛的利潤變化也表明,,金融危機爆發(fā)近五年后,,在美國國會通過里程碑式的金融改革、對美國大銀行可承擔的風險進行限制近三年后,,華爾街業(yè)務的波動性特征依然明顯,。雖然業(yè)績同比上漲,,但高盛幾乎所有業(yè)務的表現(xiàn)都不如今年一季度,,高盛一季度每股收益達到了4.29美元。

????這樣的業(yè)績波動,,以及利率上升可能繼續(xù)抑制投資者活動并阻礙達成交易的擔憂,,看起來依然讓投資者望而卻步。周二早間高盛發(fā)布業(yè)績后,,今年迄今漲幅近30%的高盛股票收盤下跌了2.76美元,,下滑至160.24美元。

????而且,,高盛利潤當中較大一部分仍來自于自有資金投資業(yè)務,。高盛稱,在限制大銀行高風險交易的沃克爾法則(Volcker rule)以及其他多德-弗蘭克(Dodd-Frank)改革措施全面實施后,,很多這些所謂的自營交易仍然是被允許進行的,。但最終的法規(guī)將對利潤產(chǎn)生多大影響仍然是個未知數(shù)。正如大家所預計的,同時也和監(jiān)管機構擔憂的那樣,,這一點也會加劇高盛的利潤波動,。

????高盛自營業(yè)務二季度收入較一季度驟減近三分之一,下降到了14億美元,,但比起2012年二季度的2億美元相比仍然猛增了590%,。

????與此同時,高盛二季度業(yè)績也顯示出,,這家公司正在努力將自身重塑為一家更傳統(tǒng)的銀行,。高盛的貸款和債券市場交易業(yè)務創(chuàng)造了6.58億美元收入,幾乎是其一年前收入2.22億美元的近三倍,。但高盛拒絕透露這些收入中有多少來自利息收入,,多少來自債券交易。

????事實上,,高盛守口如瓶的企業(yè)文化在業(yè)績發(fā)布后的投資者電話會議上展露無遺,,同時還引發(fā)了一些爭議。

????Goldman Sachs's profits in the second quarter more than doubled from a year earlier to $1.9 billion, propelled by a surge in stock and bond offerings. Trading revenues were up as well from a year ago, but down from the first quarter, perhaps showing how the recent rise in interest rates prompted clients to retreat.

????"Client risk appetite definitely fluctuated during the quarter," Goldman's CFO Harvey Schwartz told analysts and investors on a conference call about the bank's earnings. "Our clients are assessing whether improvements in the U.S. economy will offset the slowdown elsewhere."

????Goldman itself appeared to be able to capitalize on the improving U.S. economy and the rising stock market. Fees from stock market underwriting and trading rose 55% and 25% from the same period a year ago. Bond market underwriting fees were also up 40%. And Goldman's own equity investments, some of which are in private companies, generated an additional $500 million in gains in the quarter.

????In all, Goldman's earnings translated to $3.70 per share. That was far better than the $2.82 analysts had expected the firm to earn. Revenue was up 30% from a year ago to $8.6 billion. And the big bottom-line jump happened even though Goldman (GS) appears to have decided to up the pay of its already richly rewarded employees. So far this year, Goldman has booked a compensation expense, which includes benefits and salaries as well as yet-to-actually-be-paid-out bonuses, of over $8 billion to pay 31,700 employees, equal to $252,366 each. That's up from $226,006 in the first half of last year.

????But Goldman's bottom line also showed how volatile the business of Wall Street remains nearly five years after the financial crisis, and almost three years after Congress passed landmark financial reform that was supposed to limit the risks that the largest U.S. banks could take. Despite being up from a year ago, nearly all of Goldman's businesses were down from the first three months of the year, when the company earned $4.29 a share.

????That volatility, and the fear that rising interest rates will continue to temper investor activity and hamper deals, appeared to spook investors. Goldman's shares, which had been up nearly 30% this year, closed down $2.76 to $160.24, following the firm's morning earnings announcement.

????What's more, a good portion of Goldman's profits continue to come from the unit that invests the firm's own money. Goldman says much of this so-called proprietary trading will still be allowed after the Volcker rule, which is supposed to limit risky trading at the big banks, and other Dodd-Frank reforms are fully implemented. But how much the final rules will curtail these profits is still in question. It also adds, as you would expect and regulators worry, to Goldman's profit swings.

????Revenue from prop trading fell by nearly a third in the second quarter from the first three months of the year to $1.4 billion. But that was up 590% from the $200 million Goldman made from the same business the second three months of 2012.

????At the same time, Goldman's second-quarter earnings also showed how the firm is trying to remake itself into more of a traditional bank. Goldman generated $658 million from lending and debt market transactions. That was nearly triple the $222 million the firm made in the same area a year ago. Goldman, however, declined to detail how much of those revenues were from collecting interest payments, and how much was from bond trading.

????Indeed, Goldman's tight-lipped culture came out in a conference call with investors following the earnings release, creating some contentious moments.

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