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紙媒至少還能活十年

紙媒至少還能活十年

Kurt Wagner 2013年07月25日
數(shù)字時(shí)代,紙媒命運(yùn)如何,?剛剛結(jié)束的財(cái)富科技頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)上,,曾供職于《時(shí)代》、《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》等旗艦紙媒的三位重量級(jí)新聞人發(fā)言稱,,紙媒至少還能撐過下一個(gè)十年,。甚至有人打趣,如果先誕生的是電子媒體,,幾百年后誕生的才是印刷技術(shù)和紙媒,,如今被顛覆的恐怕是電子媒體。

????關(guān)于新聞業(yè)中,,他們比較看好的領(lǐng)域:

????薩根:“更多的聲音可以在更短時(shí)間內(nèi)被更多人聽到,。這非常強(qiáng)大。”

????休伊:“我認(rèn)為,,新聞業(yè)在好轉(zhuǎn)之前,,可能會(huì)繼續(xù)惡化,類似于一個(gè)創(chuàng)造性破壞的產(chǎn)物……我認(rèn)為,,一旦真正出現(xiàn)信息空白,,新聞行業(yè)從業(yè)者和企業(yè)家肯定能找到方法來填補(bǔ)這種空白。我不知道具體會(huì)是怎樣的方法,。但我相信,,新聞業(yè)會(huì)繼續(xù)存在下去?!?/p>

????紙媒會(huì)在10年內(nèi)走向消亡嗎,?如果不會(huì),我們還剩多少年時(shí)間,?

????休伊:“我認(rèn)為紙媒不會(huì)消失,。雖然我不知道它會(huì)以怎樣的商業(yè)模式運(yùn)營,或許它們不再是大眾產(chǎn)品,,而是會(huì)變得非常昂貴……如果你問的是純新聞報(bào)道的紙媒產(chǎn)品,,答案是,時(shí)間可能不會(huì)很長,?!?/p>

????尼森霍爾茨:“我同意。我認(rèn)為在未來十年,,紙媒會(huì)繼續(xù)存在?!?/p>

????艾薩克森:“印刷術(shù)是一項(xiàng)非常了不起的技術(shù),。紙媒是一種非常好的媒介,不需要擔(dān)心電池壽命問題,。如果過去450年,,我們一直通過電子屏幕來獲取所有信息,到今天有一位古登堡(德國現(xiàn)代印刷發(fā)明人——譯注)式的人物出現(xiàn),,說:‘嘿,,我可以把你們屏幕上的信息印刷在紙上,送到你的家門口,,你可以在公交車上,、后院里、浴缸里讀這些信息,?!覀儠?huì)說:‘哇!印刷,這真是一項(xiàng)出色的技術(shù),,而且有可能會(huì)逐步代替互聯(lián)網(wǎng),。’”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????On the areas of journalism they are optimistic about:

????Sagan: "More voices able to reach more people more quickly. That's tremendously powerful."

????Huey: "I think it's going to get worse before it gets better which is a product of creative destruction… I think when there is a real void in information, it will be filled by journalists and entrepreneurs who will figure out a way around this. I haven't a clue what it is. But I'm confident that journalism will remain."

????Will print publications be extinct in 10 years? If not, how many years do we have?

????Huey: "I think we'll still have them. I don't know what the business models will be, they may not be mass, they could be very expensive… if you ask the question how many news print products, straight news, the answer might not be so long."

????Nisenholtz: "I agree. I think print is very sustainable for the next decade."

????Isaacson: "Look, print is a wonderful technology. Print is a very good medium that has long battery life. If we had been getting all of our information on screens for the past 450 years or so, electronically, and some modern-day Gutenberg came along and said 'Hey, I can take all that information you get on your screens and I can put it on paper for you, deliver it to your doorstep, you can take it to the bus, the backyard, the bathtub, whatever,' we'd say, 'wow! Print, that's a really good technology it might start replacing the Internet.'"

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