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3D打印黃金時代遲到的5大原因

3D打印黃金時代遲到的5大原因

Clay Dillow 2013-09-04
花旗銀行分析師發(fā)布報告稱,,2018年3D打印市場規(guī)模將達到目前的3倍,,但不要認為這就是所謂的3D打印革命,。受種種原因的制約,,這個市場盡管增速驚人,,但總體規(guī)模相對于傳統(tǒng)制造業(yè)來說依然只是九牛一毛,。

2.廉價3D打印機降低了市場熱度。

????毫無疑問,,支撐3D打印的技術(shù)過去五年來獲得了長足發(fā)展,,使一萬美元以下的打印機也能利用多種原材料成批打出高質(zhì)量、高分辨率的物品,。但據(jù)Smartech Markets Publishing公司總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官勞倫斯?蓋思曼稱,,廉價的打印機依然存在問題。售價低于1000美元(甚至500美元)的3D打印機瞄準的是普通消費者市場,。蓋思曼表示,,關(guān)鍵問題是,這些低端打印機的質(zhì)量并不理想,。

????蓋思曼稱:“現(xiàn)在開始出現(xiàn)了一些較低價的,、如400美元一臺的打印機。但我們,,以及全行業(yè)對這類產(chǎn)品的一大擔憂是,,如果有人對這類機器期望值過高,,在花了350美元買回去一臺后卻發(fā)現(xiàn)它幾乎毫無用處,那就會讓這類消費者從此對這種概念產(chǎn)品敬而遠之了,?!?/p>

????蓋思曼表示,一臺2500美元(對3D打印機來說已經(jīng)不算貴了)左右的打印機確實能打出令人驚艷的東西來,,但這個價位對絕大多數(shù)家庭來說都不是個小數(shù)目,。而消費者會為了打點小玩意兒,就想買個350美元的機器嗎,?只有價格下降,,但打印品質(zhì)仍能保證的情況下,才可能有更多消費者買3D打印機,。

3.知識產(chǎn)權(quán)仍會誘發(fā)各種行業(yè)問題,。

????蓋思曼稱,3D打印涉及的領(lǐng)域非常廣泛,,因此這個行業(yè)暫時不需要考慮太多的監(jiān)管問題,。即使要通過某項監(jiān)管措施,那也會是針對某種應用(比如打印武器)而非技術(shù)本身,。但這并不意味著訴訟及其他法律問題完全不會阻礙3D打印加速發(fā)展的腳步,。因為3D打印涉及的資金非常龐大。

????價值上萬億美元的多個行業(yè)可能會感到3D打印以及它可能繞過知識產(chǎn)權(quán)保護而構(gòu)成的威脅,。盡管相關(guān)法律問題十分復雜難纏,,但這也難以阻止一些公司,比如汽車零部件行業(yè)(每年產(chǎn)值為1400億美元)通過法律渠道保護自己的利益,,從而讓3D打印技術(shù)或其應用長期寸步難行,。相比知識產(chǎn)權(quán)盜用而言,還有些問題層次更深,。擔保,、設(shè)計授權(quán)、相關(guān)責任(斯圖爾特就說:“如果3D打印的零部件損壞,,最終毀了我價值一千萬美元的機器怎么辦,?”)——從法律觀點看,相關(guān)問題還遠不止于這些,。

????斯圖爾特說:“我跟一些律師討論過這個問題,,結(jié)果他們的眼珠就像自動售貨機上的轉(zhuǎn)盤一樣轉(zhuǎn)個不停。這是個很大的問題,。它會涉及到上千億,、甚至上萬億美元,而目前沒人知道該怎么解決,,相關(guān)法律如何執(zhí)行,,甚至連該制訂什么法律大家都沒概念,。”

4.3D打印不是制造業(yè)的救星,。

????它也不會是“家庭工廠”——至少未來五年里不會是,。盡管3D打印技術(shù)能提高產(chǎn)品設(shè)計師和生產(chǎn)商的工作效率,但它的速度實在太慢了,。蓋思曼表示,,這種技術(shù)對大規(guī)模定制來說非常適合,但用到大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)上就太不靠譜了,,而且它也沒法生產(chǎn)普通人的日常生活用品,。

2. Cheaper printers could have a cooling effect on the market

????There's no question that the technology underlying 3-D printing has come a long way over the last half decade, allowing printers in the sub-$10,000 price range to churn out high-quality, high-resolution objects in a range of materials. But at the lower end of the price spectrum there could be a problem, says Smartech Markets Publishing President and CEO Lawrence Gasman. The emergence of sub-$1,000 printers -- and even sub-$500 printers -- aimed at the consumer market has placed 3-D printing within the grasp of just about anyone. The problem, Gasman says, is that the lower-end printers aren't very good.

????"There's beginning to be a low end to it, something like a $400 printer," Gasman says. "And one concern we have for this space, and it's shared across the industry, if you set the expectation high for what these things can do and someone buys one for $350 and finds that it's next to useless, that will put them off the whole concept."

????You can do amazing things with a printer that costs about two-and-a-half-grand, Gasman says -- a relatively inexpensive machine as far as 3-D printers go, but the kind of expense that warrants a discussion in most households. And will consumers want a $350 machine dedicated to making trinkets? Until quality comes downhill along with cost, widespread adoption by consumers could be muted.

3. Intellectual property could still cause problems for the industry

????The field of 3-D printing is broad enough that the industry doesn't have to worry too much about regulation at this point, Gasman says. Any regulation that might be passed would likely target an application (like printing firearms, for instance) rather than the technology itself. But that doesn't mean litigation and other legal issues might not slow 3-D printing's acceleration. There's simply too much money at stake.

????Industries worth tens and even hundreds of billions of dollars could feel threatened by 3-D printing and the ways in which it might circumvent their intellectual property protections. And while the legal waters get murky here, that might not stop companies in, say, the automotive parts business (valued at something like $140 billion annually) from moving to protect their interests via legal channels, tying up some 3-D printing technologies or applications indefinitely. The issues run deeper than mere intellectual property theft. Warranties, licensing of designs, liability ("what if my 3-D printed part breaks and destroys my $10 million dollar machine?" Stewart says) -- from a legal standpoint there hasn't even been a first, much less final, word on this.

????"I have talked to lawyers about this, and their eyes spin in their heads like the dials on a slot machine," Stewart says. "This is an enormous issue. It is worth tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars, and nobody knows how it's going to work out, how it's going to be enforced, or even what the law is."

4. 3-D printing is not the savior of manufacturing

????Or the "factory for the home" -- at least not in the next five years. While 3-D printing technology can make product designers and manufacturers more efficient, it's remarkably slow. It's great for mass customization, Gasman says, but wholly implausible for mass production. Nor is it capable of producing the kinds of things that now rule the average person's life.

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