2014潛在金融危機的演進路線示意圖

失業(yè)率下降快于預期(美國失業(yè)率已經(jīng)先于計劃,,降至7%)... |
Faced with a faster drop in the unemployment rate than expected (we are already at 7% ahead of schedule) ... |

... 美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)將被迫縮減經(jīng)濟刺激政策... |
... the Federal Reserve will be forced to back off its stimulus efforts ... |

... 結(jié)果造成利率上升,,不到一個月,利率上升了3個百分點,。 |
... causing interest rates to spike, up three percentage points in less than a month. |

于是,,持有大量債券的美國五大銀行將損失550億美元。光這些,,不會讓我們陷入金融危機,。比如,身為《財富》美國500強公司的美國銀行(Bank of America)的資本充足率將仍將達到7.4%,,略低于7.5%的法定要求,。 |
The nation's five largest banks, which hold lots of bonds, will lose $55 billion. That alone wouldn't push us into a financial crisis. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), for instance, would still have a capital ratio of 7.4%, just south of the required 7.5%. |

但你知道會發(fā)生什么嗎?會有一家大型信用對沖基金倒閉,。這家對沖基金可能使用美國國債作為抵押品,,通過到期回購交易對擔保債務憑證(CDO)進行了杠桿投資。(沒錯,,華爾街直到現(xiàn)在仍然在從事這類交易,。) |
But you know what will? The blow up of a large credit hedge fund, which had made a leveraged bet on collateralized debt obligations through repo-to-maturity trades using Treasuries as collateral. (Yes, Wall Street still does those deals.) |

一些緊張的投資者將逃離金融市場... |
Already nervous investors will run from financial markets ... |

...造成信用擠兌。 |
... causing a credit crunch. |

于是,,銀行為了覆蓋近期資本損失將被迫轉(zhuǎn)向美聯(lián)儲尋求幫助,。華爾街將此稱為短期融資,別人則稱之為救助,。這種做法會起作用,,但會讓在過去一年將銀行股價推高30%的投資者大感意外。明年肯定不會有出現(xiàn)這么好的行情了,。(財富中文網(wǎng)) |
Banks nursing their recent capital losses will be forced to turn to the Fed for what Wall Street calls short-term funding and the rest of us call a bailout. It will work, but all of it will come as a surprise to investors who have bid bank stocks up 30% in the past year. Next year won't be as good. |