規(guī)模是關鍵

????然而,，在吸引電池合作廠商的計劃中,，特斯拉最聰明的做法或許是設置新工廠的產能,。特斯拉表示,，新工廠產能為35千兆瓦時的電池單元及50千兆瓦時的電池組,。杰夫稱,，這額外的15千兆瓦時是特斯拉用以吸引潛在合作伙伴的誘餌,。特斯拉實際上已做出保證,，雖然新工廠生產的電池大部分會用在下一代車型上,，但它還需要從外部購買很多電池,。

????“想象一下,，如果你是一家電池制造商,，你最大的客戶跟你說，‘我想讓你幫我建一座電池廠,，這樣我就可以自己生產電池，然后把你從供應鏈種踢出去’”,，杰夫說?！澳悄愫慰嘁獛退俊?/p>

????杰夫進一步表示,，即使特斯拉如愿以償,，在大眾市場賣出了500,000輛汽車，而且計劃繼續(xù)生產Model S和Model X,，Gigafactory也仍然會有10千兆瓦時的產能剩余,。特斯拉可以將剩下的產能用于支持及擴大蓬勃發(fā)展的固定式（相對于便攜式汽車電池來說）能源儲備業(yè)務。

????特斯拉已在為加利福尼亞能源服務公司SolarCity提供用于商用建筑能源儲備系統(tǒng)的電池,。SolarCity電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)集成部門高級主管埃里克?卡爾森表示，公司在開發(fā)固定存儲產品的過程中已經(jīng)跟特斯拉保持了三年多的緊密合作。（特斯拉CEO穆斯克同時也是SolarCity的董事長,。）

????除表達期待未來繼續(xù)合作的愿望之外,，卡爾森不愿就公司與特斯拉的合作發(fā)表更多評論,。然而他也表示,，SolarCity已經(jīng)看到市場對固定能源存儲設備的巨大需求,，同時，它也希望特斯拉能看到這類產品令人興奮的市場潛力,。

????盡管如此,，杰夫說,，如果特斯拉想每年在固定能源存儲市場賣出10千兆瓦時以上的電池組，就必須把電池組價格定在每千瓦時200美元以下,。特斯拉聲稱,，它從松下電器購買鋰電池的價格是每千瓦時200到300美元,，但現(xiàn)在固定能源存儲設備的成本上升了許多——全球這類設備的生產成本在每千瓦時500到800美元,。

后續(xù)計劃

????如果特斯拉計劃在三年之內將電動汽車投放到大眾市場，就必須盡快降低電動汽車的生產成本,。投資數(shù)十億美元開設大型工廠,，借此統(tǒng)一鋰電池制造過程的不同環(huán)節(jié)，這是達成這個目標的第一步,。這筆投資在經(jīng)濟上是否劃算呢,？與特斯拉一樣，我們也只能拭目以待,。（財富中文網(wǎng)）????

Size is key

????But the capacity of the factory may be the most clever part of Tesla's plan to attract a battery partner. Tesla said the factory will have the capacity of 35 gigawatt-hours (GWh) per cell and 50 GWh per pack. The extra 15 GWh is the carrot Tesla is holding out to its potential partner, Jaffe said. Tesla is essentially guaranteeing that while most of the battery cells from the factory will go toward its next-generation model, it will still need to buy more.

????"Let's imagine you're a battery manufacturer and your big buyer comes to you and says, 'I want you to help me build a factory so I can make a product that you make today and cut you out of the supply chain,' " Jaffe said. "Why would you possibly do that?"

????Even if Tesla sells the 500,000 mass-market vehicles it desires, and continues to make the Model S and Model X, the Gigafactory should still have a remaining 10 GWh of manufacturing capacity left, Jaffe said. That remaining capacity could be used to support -- and expand -- its burgeoning stationary (as opposed to portable -- that is, cars) energy storage business.

????Tesla already supplies the California energy services company SolarCity with batteries for energy storage systems designed for commercial buildings. SolarCity has worked closely with Tesla for more than three years in its development of a stationary storage product, said Eric Carlson, SolarCity's senior director of grid systems integration. (Tesla's Musk is also chairman of SolarCity.)

????Carlson wouldn't comment on any future plans with the automaker except to say that he expected the partnership to continue. However, he did say that SolarCity sees significant demand for stationary energy storage and would expect that Tesla would also be excited about its market potential.

????Nevertheless, if Tesla expects to sell more than 10 GWh per year's worth of battery packs to the stationary storage market, the packs will have to be priced below $200 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), Jaffe said. Tesla has said that the lithium-ion batteries it buys from Panasonic are between $200 and $300 per kWh, but the current cost of stationary energy storage is much higher -- between $500 and $800 per kWh globally.

Next steps

????If Tesla aims to produce a mass-market electric car in three years, it knows it will need to accelerate the rate at which it drives down the cost of producing one. A massive, multibillion-dollar factory that unifies the disparate steps in manufacturing lithium-ion batteries is a step toward that. Will the economics make sense? Like Tesla itself, we'll only find out in time.