????一年多來,，中國(guó)到2015年通過水力壓裂法發(fā)現(xiàn)65億立方米天然氣的目標(biāo)一直像是白日做夢(mèng),。這個(gè)目標(biāo)是在2012年公布的，中國(guó)政府當(dāng)時(shí)還公布了一個(gè)更雄心勃勃的目標(biāo),，即到2020年生產(chǎn)至少600億立方米天然氣,。壓裂法是通過將水和化學(xué)物質(zhì)猛壓入巖層釋放出氣藏,，是一種存在爭(zhēng)議的技術(shù)。中國(guó)還沒有真正掌握壓裂法,，怎樣才能在幾年時(shí)間里就要從零開始實(shí)現(xiàn)這樣的高速增長(zhǎng),？

????因此分析人士對(duì)中國(guó)的這一宏偉計(jì)劃一直不以為然。

????上個(gè)月月末,，情況突然峰回路轉(zhuǎn),。當(dāng)時(shí)，國(guó)有油氣巨頭中國(guó)石化公司（Sinopec,，簡(jiǎn)稱“中石化”）宣布它位于四川省境內(nèi)的涪陵頁(yè)巖氣田實(shí)現(xiàn)了“重大突破”,。之后，所有人都改變了看法,。中石化和另一家國(guó)有油氣巨頭中國(guó)石油天然氣集團(tuán)公司（CNPC,，簡(jiǎn)稱“中石油”）控制著中國(guó)75%的頁(yè)巖氣資源。前者表示,，到2015年它憑借涪陵氣田能生產(chǎn)50億立方米天然氣,，幾乎靠它一家的力量就能實(shí)現(xiàn)中國(guó)全國(guó)的生產(chǎn)目標(biāo)。中石化還表示,，到2017年它在中國(guó)的首個(gè)大型頁(yè)巖氣田將生產(chǎn)100億立方米天然氣,，而且目前還在大力開發(fā)更多頁(yè)巖氣資源。這家公司總裁還告訴媒體記者,，中石化出售旗下加油站業(yè)務(wù)的股份,，用這些收入來為開發(fā)更多頁(yè)巖氣提供資金支持。

????要不是中國(guó)政府改變了支持頁(yè)巖氣資源開采的激勵(lì)政策,，可能就不會(huì)有涪陵氣田這個(gè)重大發(fā)現(xiàn),。中國(guó)國(guó)土資源部（Ministry of Land and Resources）估計(jì)，中國(guó)的頁(yè)巖氣資源儲(chǔ)量居全球首位,，規(guī)模比美國(guó)還高三分之一,。更重要的是，中國(guó)政府將支付給中石化及其它公司新開采天然氣供應(yīng)的價(jià)格提高了40%,，同時(shí)將未來的價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)與全球油價(jià)掛鉤,。中國(guó)城市非居民用戶的天然氣價(jià)格已上漲了15%。位于香港的龍洲經(jīng)訊公司（GavekalDragonomics）能源分析師奈特?塔普林稱,，現(xiàn)在將涪陵的天然氣輸往上海這樣的東部市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)有利可圖,。而僅僅幾年前這還是一樁賠本買賣。

????另一項(xiàng)重大的政府改革是由國(guó)家能源局（National Energy Administration）主導(dǎo)的,。能源局表示,，所有天然氣管道都將向第三方開采公司開放，也就是目前在美國(guó)占主導(dǎo)地位的小企業(yè)。以前,，中國(guó)那些規(guī)模較小的開采公司要將氣從開采點(diǎn)運(yùn)出去時(shí),，運(yùn)輸問題得不到保障。中國(guó)石油公司（PetroChina）的母公司中國(guó)石油天然氣集團(tuán)掌握著全國(guó)80%天然氣管道的運(yùn)營(yíng)權(quán),，以前它不會(huì)允許其他公司利用自己的網(wǎng)絡(luò),。即使中石化和中石油仍然掌握著中國(guó)四分之三的頁(yè)巖氣資源，至少現(xiàn)在更多小公司可以開發(fā)剩下的25%儲(chǔ)量,，也就離銷售它們自己開發(fā)的天然氣更近了一步,。

????目前中國(guó)的政治形勢(shì)也鼓勵(lì)頁(yè)巖氣水力壓裂開發(fā)。中石化的老對(duì)手中石油一度主導(dǎo)了中國(guó)傳統(tǒng)天然氣的生產(chǎn),，占據(jù)了約75%的市場(chǎng)份額,。它沒有多少理由要推動(dòng)非傳統(tǒng)的頁(yè)巖氣開發(fā)。但以習(xí)近平和李克強(qiáng)為核心的新一屆中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在席卷全國(guó)的反腐運(yùn)動(dòng)中查處了中石油的一批高管,，從而動(dòng)搖了它的市場(chǎng)地位,。由于中石油的影響力已經(jīng)被削弱，這家公司現(xiàn)在不太可能再反對(duì)政府的水力壓裂開發(fā)目標(biāo),。

????目前看來中石化是最大的贏家。它正在涪陵氣田附近修建液化天然氣工廠,，計(jì)劃將頁(yè)巖氣投放到液化天然氣市場(chǎng),。目前，這個(gè)市場(chǎng)的燃?xì)鈨r(jià)格不受政府管制,，因此可以賣出更高價(jià)格,。石化市場(chǎng)信息咨詢企業(yè)安迅思公司（ICIS）廣州分公司副總裁廖納（音譯）稱：“頁(yè)巖氣的生產(chǎn)規(guī)模還趕不上天然氣，一開始它可能會(huì)銷往液化天然氣市場(chǎng),?！?/p>

????從更長(zhǎng)期來看，中石油和各大跨國(guó)企業(yè)將幫助中國(guó)充分開發(fā)中國(guó)的頁(yè)巖氣儲(chǔ)量,。殼牌公司（Shell）,、雪佛龍公司（Chevron）和康菲石油公司（ConocoPhillips）都在勘探中國(guó)大量的頁(yè)巖氣田。而美國(guó)能源信息管理局（U.S. Energy Information Administration）的預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)字比中國(guó)同行更為大膽,，據(jù)它估算,，中國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣儲(chǔ)量比美國(guó)高出68%。

????不過中國(guó)仍然面臨著大量的挑戰(zhàn)：中國(guó)的地勢(shì)遠(yuǎn)比美國(guó)復(fù)雜多樣,，頁(yè)巖氣埋藏深度有時(shí)候是美國(guó)的兩倍,，因此開采起來成本更高；而水力壓裂法需要大量水,，對(duì)中國(guó)業(yè)已稀缺的水資源來說更是雪上加霜,；同時(shí)中國(guó)也缺乏開采必需的技術(shù)。不過中石化的最新產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)讓人無法否認(rèn)，中國(guó)在充分開采頁(yè)巖氣儲(chǔ)量的道路上又更進(jìn)了一步,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????

????For more than a year, China's goal of recovering 6.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas by 2015 via hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, seemed like a pipe dream. The figure was announced in 2012, along with the government's even more ambitious goal of producing at least 60 billion cubic meters by 2020. How do you grow that fast in just a few years from basically zero, especially when your country is new to fracking, a controversial method of drilling that blasts water and chemicals into rock formations to release trapped gas?

????Analysts had been dismissive.

????Until late last month. That's when everyone's outlook changed after the state oil and gas giant Sinopec (SNP) announced "significant breakthroughs" at its Fuling shale gas field in the country's southern Sichuan province. Sinopec, which along with China's other state-owned oil and gas giant CNPC controls 75% of shale fields in China, said it will almost single-handedly meet China's goal and produce 5 billion cubic meters by 2015 at Fuling. Sinopec said by 2017 it would produce 10 billion cubic meters at China's first big shale gas field and that the company was pushing hard for more shale gas discoveries. Its chairman told reporters that Sinopec would use proceeds from selling a stake in its gas station business to fund more shale fields.

????The Fuling discovery might not have happened if the Chinese government hadn't changed the incentives for drilling shale gas reserves, which the country's Ministry of Land and Resources estimates to be the world's largest and a third-larger in size than America's. Most importantly the government raised the prices paid to Sinopec and others for new gas supply by up to 40% and tied future increases to global oil prices. The price of natural gas for nonresidential users in Chinese cities rose by 15%. Fuling's gas headed to China's eastern markets like Shanghai now has a profit margin, says Nate Taplin, energy analyst at GavekalDragonomics in Hong Kong. Just a couple years ago it was a money-losing proposition.

????The other important government reform came via China's National Energy Administration, which said that all natural gas pipelines would be made open to third-party drillers, the small operators that dominate the landscape in the U.S. Before, smaller Chinese drillers weren't guaranteed transport for their gas from drilling sites. CNPC, the parent of PetroChina, operates 80% of the natural gas pipelines, and it wasn't handing out invitations to use its network. Even though Sinopec and CNPC still control three-quarters of the country's shale blocks, at least now the companies bidding on the other 25% of reserves are one step closer to getting their gas to market.

????The political winds have also encouraged shale gas fracking in China. Sinopec's rival CNPC dominates production of conventional natural gas in the country, with around 75% market share. It didn't have many reasons to push into unconventional shale gas plays. But China's new administration lead by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang has diminished CNPC's stature after targeting top CNPC officials in a nationwide corruption crackdown -- most notably the former CNPC chairman and minister of public security Zhou Yongkang. Because of its reduced influence, CNPC is now less likely to push back against the government's fracking goals.

????Sinopec looks like the biggest winner for now. It's building a liquefied natural gas plant near its Fuling field to move shale gas into the LNG market, where prices are unregulated by the government and can trade higher. "For shale gas, since production is not as big as natural gas, in the beginning it will probably be traded in LNG market," says Liao Na, a vice president at energy consultant ICIS in Guangzhou.

????Over the longer-term, CNPC and multinationals will all help China realize its shale gas potential. Shell (RDSA), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP) are circling China's massive shale fields. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is more aggressive than its Chinese counterpart, estimating that China's shale gas reserves are 68% higher than those in the U.S.

????Challenges for China remain: The country's topography is more problematic than America's, and deposits are sometimes buried twice as deep in the ground, making shale gas costlier to excavate; the water-intensive fracking process is a drain on China's already scarce resources; and the country still lacks some necessary technology. But Sinopec's new forecast makes it undeniable that China is moving closer to realizing its shale gas potential.