????汽車(chē)行業(yè)的未來(lái)在哪里,？最近,，特斯拉（Tesla）及其CEO埃隆?穆斯克可謂賺足了眼球，所以,，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)是符合邏輯的猜測(cè),。

????但豐田汽車(chē)（Toyota）并不這樣認(rèn)為。

????混合動(dòng)力或替代燃料汽車(chē)占豐田汽車(chē)去年總銷(xiāo)量的16%,，其中,，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)占比為10%。在周二的《財(cái)富》（Fortune）綠色頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)（Brainstorm Green）上,，豐田北美公司（Toyota North America）CEO吉姆?倫茨對(duì)觀眾表示：“隨著電池技術(shù)的改進(jìn),，這個(gè)部門(mén)還會(huì)繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。但真正令我們感到興奮的是燃料電池汽車(chē)的概念,?！?/p>

????為什么？倫茨表示,，因?yàn)椤斑@是一種基于需求的電動(dòng)汽車(chē),。這種汽車(chē)沒(méi)有笨重的大號(hào)電池，不需要花很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間充電,，主要使用氫氣來(lái)產(chǎn)生電力和水蒸汽,。”另外一個(gè)因素在于,，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)電池價(jià)格的下降幅度不足以為消費(fèi)者提供價(jià)格合理的遠(yuǎn)程駕駛汽車(chē),。倫茨稱(chēng)：“未來(lái)這種情況可能會(huì)有所改變，但我不知道會(huì)是什么時(shí)候,。從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,，燃料電池車(chē)型才是最后的贏家,。”

????很快,，倫茨就開(kāi)始滔滔不絕地介紹燃料電池汽車(chē)的好處：它們的碳足跡比汽油改善了50%,，燃料成本將降低——可乘坐4名乘客的轎車(chē)行駛300英里的費(fèi)用約為30美元。

????盡管有各種好處,，但有一個(gè)重要的不利因素依然不容忽視：氫動(dòng)力汽車(chē)沒(méi)有地方加注燃料,，而修建氫氣站的費(fèi)用又太過(guò)昂貴；每一個(gè)氫氣站的成本大約為200萬(wàn)美元,。

????大會(huì)主持人,、《財(cái)富》雜志資深編輯布萊恩?杜梅因說(shuō)：“加利福尼亞州總共也只有9到10個(gè)（氫氣）站，全世界也僅有180個(gè),。在加州去哪兒為氫動(dòng)力汽車(chē)加注燃料,？”

????倫茨表示，豐田汽車(chē)正在與加州大學(xué)爾灣分校（University of California at Irvine）合作,，確定氫氣站的最佳位置,，以及加州滿足約10,000輛燃料電池汽車(chē)需要多少個(gè)氫氣站。他說(shuō)：“我們得出的結(jié)果是68個(gè),?！睉{借加州的2億美元投資，以及豐田投入的700萬(wàn)美元,，加州到明年將擁有30個(gè)氫氣站,。倫茨說(shuō)：“加州距離實(shí)現(xiàn)初步氫氣高速公路的目標(biāo)并不遙遠(yuǎn)?！?/p>

????接下來(lái)還有價(jià)格問(wèn)題,。豐田汽車(chē)以經(jīng)濟(jì)適用性而著稱(chēng)，燃料電池汽車(chē)是否也能做到這一點(diǎn),？

????倫茨對(duì)綠色頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)的觀眾們表示,，豐田公司有約100輛燃料電池汽車(chē)已經(jīng)上路——每一輛價(jià)值約100萬(wàn)美元。他表示,，明年公司向公眾推出燃料電池汽車(chē)時(shí),，價(jià)格將大幅下調(diào)，僅為目前價(jià)格的5%,，也就是50,000美元,。

????毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，倫茨對(duì)燃料電池的未來(lái)充滿熱情,。但他表示,，目前并不是所有人都像他一樣樂(lè)觀。他說(shuō)：“以混合動(dòng)力汽車(chē)為例,，從最初推出到銷(xiāo)量超過(guò)50,000輛,，我們花了15年時(shí)間,。我想大家可以做出這樣的假設(shè)：未來(lái)一段時(shí)間,，燃料電池汽車(chē)會(huì)達(dá)到類(lèi)似的接受度,。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????What's the future of the automobile? For all the attention Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk have received of late, the electric car is the logical guess.

????Not at Toyota.

????Hybrid or alternative fuel vehicles made up 16% of Toyota's (TM) total sales last year – 10% of that number was from electric vehicles. That sector "will grow over time, as we see improvement in batteries," Jim Lentz, CEO of Toyota North America told the audience at Fortune's Brainstorm Green conference on Tuesday. "But we're really excited about this concept of fuel cell vehicles."

????Why? Because "it's an on-demand electric vehicle," Lentz said. "Rather than having a large heavy battery that takes a while to charge, you basically use hydrogen to produce electricity and water vapor." Another factor is that prices of batteries used in electric vehicles aren't dropping dramatically enough to offer consumers a long-range vehicle at a reasonable price. "It'll happen some day, but I can't tell you when that is," Lentz says. "The long term play is going to be fuel cell."

????Lentz was quick to reel off the benefits of fuel cell vehicles: their carbon footprint is 50% better than gasoline, and their fuel costs will be low – about $30 for a 4-passenger sedan to travel 300 miles.

????But for all the pros there's a major con: there's no place to fill up a hydrogen car, and it's expensive to build hydrogen stations; they cost about $2 million a piece.

????"California has only nine or 10 [hydrogen] stations, and there are only 180 in the world," said moderator Brian Dumaine, senior editor at Fortune. "Where are you going to fill up a hydrogen car in California?"

????Lentz said that Toyota has been working with University of California at Irvine to determine the optimal location of stations and how many stations the state actually needs to satisfy about 10,000 fuel cell vehicles. "That number is 68," he said. Thanks to a $200 million investment by the state -- Toyota has invested $7 million of its own money was well -- California will have 30 stations by next year. "We're not that far away in California of having that initial hydrogen highway," Lentz said.

????And then there's the question of price? Toyota is known for its affordability. Will a fuel cell car fit into that mold?

????Lentz told the Brainstorm Green audience that Toyota has about 100 fuel cell vehicles on the road already – each worth about $1 million. When the company introduces its fuel cell car to the general public next year, the cost will be about 5% of that – or $50,000, according to Lentz.

????There's no doubt Lentz is enthusiastic about his company's fuel cell future, but he said he knows other people might not feel the same way – yet. "If you look at hybrids, it took 15 years from when we first introduced it to go to a marketplace of over 500,00," he said. "I think you can assume a similar acceptance rate of fuel cells down the road."