iPod之父法德爾親口講述Nest誕生記:掘金1000萬只恒溫器大市場(chǎng)
????托尼?法德爾曾經(jīng)是蘋果公司(Apple)高管,離職后與人共同創(chuàng)建了Nest【這家公司最近被谷歌(Google)斥資32億美元收購】,。他因?yàn)閯?chuàng)造性的思維和顛覆性的技術(shù)被人們比作史蒂夫?喬布斯以及拉里?佩奇,。 ????2014年6月30日出版的《財(cái)富》雜志將刊登一篇關(guān)于法德爾的特寫,。此外,,他最近還出席了在加州拉古納尼古爾召開的《財(cái)富》綠色頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)(Brainstorm Green Conference)。下面是雜志當(dāng)期報(bào)道中未能收錄的一些法德爾的想法,。 ????《財(cái)富》:你創(chuàng)建了Nest,,開發(fā)了公司的第一款產(chǎn)品——恒溫器。說說你當(dāng)時(shí)靈光一現(xiàn)的頓悟時(shí)刻吧,。 ????法德爾:首先,,我問自己,這個(gè)產(chǎn)品構(gòu)思好不好,?我的回答是:“這個(gè)產(chǎn)品構(gòu)思很好,市場(chǎng)上還沒有類似產(chǎn)品,。我在網(wǎng)上什么都能查。但市場(chǎng)上就是沒有類似產(chǎn)品,。然后我問:“那這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)是否具備商業(yè)價(jià)值,?我知道我能開發(fā)出產(chǎn)品,但這是樁好生意嗎,?我接著問:“這款產(chǎn)品每年的銷量有多大,?整個(gè)市場(chǎng)有多大?” ????我研究發(fā)現(xiàn),,“哇,,光美國(guó)就有25萬個(gè)恒溫器?那它的更新率如何,?”我發(fā)現(xiàn),光住宅和輕型商用恒溫器每年就要更換1000多萬只,。我當(dāng)時(shí)想道:“天吶,,1000萬個(gè)?這比游戲機(jī)要多,!比洗衣機(jī),、干衣機(jī)、爐灶和烤箱都要多,。這是個(gè)大市場(chǎng),?!蔽覀兛释业酱笫袌?chǎng),,對(duì)吧,?那么還有哪些是大市場(chǎng),?自行車市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模與之相當(dāng)。只不過人們可能不覺得這是個(gè)大市場(chǎng),。就好比我們當(dāng)年做iPod時(shí),很多人都說:“CD播放器市場(chǎng)沒錢賺,。已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)商品化了,。沒戲了。去干別的吧,!”產(chǎn)品銷量停滯,,產(chǎn)品價(jià)格連年下降。這種市場(chǎng)往往到了該創(chuàng)新的時(shí)候,。 ????于是你有了一個(gè)自己喜歡的想法,。然后呢? ????然后我調(diào)查了一下競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,,我說:“我們來看看誰有實(shí)力開發(fā)出下一代恒溫器?!蔽已芯苛怂兄饕暮銣仄鲝S商,,嘗試尋找正在開發(fā)新型恒溫器的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)。我想:“假如這個(gè)領(lǐng)域真的有創(chuàng)新,,我肯定能看到,。”但似乎沒有任何動(dòng)靜,。經(jīng)過更深入的研究,,我發(fā)現(xiàn),大約70%的恒溫器都是通過批發(fā)銷售,。因此,它們并不是在面向使用者進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì),。過去恒溫器的設(shè)計(jì)只是為了幫助安裝者安裝和銷售盡可能多的產(chǎn)品,。換言之,這一切跟消費(fèi)者完全沒關(guān)系,。于是我告訴自己:“這個(gè)市場(chǎng)思維僵化,,消費(fèi)者難以真正了解產(chǎn)品。競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手固步自封,,不求進(jìn)取,。而且,這個(gè)領(lǐng)域沒有任何創(chuàng)新,?!?/p> |
????Tony Fadell, a former Apple AAPL -1.03% executive who went on to co-found Nest (which recently sold to Google GOOG 0.26% for $3.2 billion), has been likened to Steve Jobs and Larry Page for his innovative thinking and disruptive technology. ????Following our recent feature story about him in the June 30, 2014 issue of Fortune magazine—as wellhis recent appearance at the Fortune Brainstorm Green conference in Laguna Nigel, Calif.—here are some of his thoughts that didn’t make the magazine story. ????Fortune: Tell me your ‘Aha! moment’ in starting Nest, with its first product being a thermostat. ????Fadell: Well, first, I asked, was there a good product idea? And I thought, “Yeah, there’s a good product idea. Okay, there’s none out there. I can research everything on the web. There’s just nothing there.” So then I said, “Okay. Is it a good business? I know I can make this thing. Is it a good business?” And then I asked, “How many are being sold a year? What’s the total available market?” ????And when I started doing the research, I was like, “Wait a second. There’s a quarter of a million thermostats in the U.S. alone? Well, if there’s that, what’s the replacement rate?” And I looked and it was over 10 million a year for just residential and light commercial thermostats. I was like, “Wait a second. 10 million? That’s more than game machines! That’s more than washers, dryers, stoves, and ovens. That’s a big market.” We’re dying to find big markets, right? So what else is out there? Bicycles are about the same. Now, people might not perceive it as such. It was just like when we were doing the iPod, people were like, “There’s no money in CD players. It’s commoditized. There’s nothing there. Move on!” The number of units is stagnant, and the price drops every year. That’s the kind of market that’s usually ripe for innovation. ????So you had an idea you liked. Then what? ????Then I looked at the competition, and I said, “Let’s look who can do what it takes to make this next-generation thermostat.” I went down all the current incumbents, and tried to look for startups that were doing it. And every time I looked, I was like, “Wait a second. If there was true innovation here, I would be seeing it.” It didn’t seem like there was any activity. And then I looked further and I learned that about 70% of thermostats were sold through wholesale. So they weren’t being designed for people to use. They were being designed for installers to install and sell as many as they possibly could. It had nothing to do about the consumer. And then I said, “Wait a second. There’s a market with an old way of thinking in terms of how the consumer learns about the product. The competition is old and hasn’t moved. And third, there’s no innovation whatsoever.” |
-
熱讀文章
-
熱門視頻