????不過(guò)《農(nóng)業(yè)賭博：食物如何不再是食物》（ Bet the Farm: How Food Stopped Being Food）一書(shū)的作者弗萊德里克?考夫曼卻從大宗商品交易和衍生品市場(chǎng)的歷史的角度給魯尼的話(huà)潑了一瓢冷水。他認(rèn)為,，水資源的金融衍生品和投機(jī)可能導(dǎo)致水價(jià)飆升,，甚至使旱情進(jìn)一步惡化，就像糧食和能源期貨也曾導(dǎo)致社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩一樣,?？挤蚵鼘?duì)Wired.com表示：“我們已經(jīng)見(jiàn)證了金融衍生品對(duì)抵押證券產(chǎn)生的影響，我們不希望同樣的事發(fā)生在水身上,?！?/p>

????魯尼認(rèn)為，考夫曼提出的把水資源分配權(quán)交給政府的方法無(wú)法帶來(lái)Waterfind為水資源市場(chǎng)所貢獻(xiàn)的效率,。

????熟悉美國(guó)水資源問(wèn)題的美國(guó)保護(hù)基金會(huì)（Conservation Fund）的項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理奧利?阿蒙森表示,，美國(guó)的非政府機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)在試圖借助市場(chǎng)的力量來(lái)保護(hù)水資源。比如加利福尼亞州的律師湯姆??？怂咕拖Ｍ尵璜I(xiàn)用水權(quán)者獲得類(lèi)似于美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)收入署賦予土地信托捐獻(xiàn)者的稅收優(yōu)惠,。這樣就為用水權(quán)賦予了經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值，同時(shí)也讓投機(jī)者沒(méi)有鉆營(yíng)的機(jī)會(huì),。

????阿蒙森認(rèn)為,，澳大利亞的期貨市場(chǎng)可能不會(huì)蔓延至美國(guó)，其中一個(gè)原因是美國(guó)各地有關(guān)用水權(quán)的法律五花八門(mén),。但Waterfind公司卻表示,，它計(jì)劃在2015年1月推出美國(guó)業(yè)務(wù)。

????就像考夫曼等人指出的那樣,，一旦妖怪跳出了瓶子,，就沒(méi)人能說(shuō)得清市場(chǎng)到底會(huì)走向何方。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：樸成奎

????Frederick Kaufman, the author of Bet the Farm: How Food Stopped Being Food, says the history of commodity and derivatives markets throws some, ahem, cold water on this argument. He has warned that water derivatives and speculation could cause price spikes and even exacerbate droughts, just as grain and energy futures have wreaked social havoc in the past. “We saw what derivatives did for mortgage-backed securities. We don’t want them doing that for water,” Kaufman told Wired.com.

????Rooney says that Kaufman’s alternative—leaving it to government agencies to allocate water—would not yield the efficiencies he attributes to water markets.

????Ole Amundsen, a program manager for the Conservation Fund who is familiar with U.S. water issues, says non-governmental organizations are already trying to harness market forces for water conservation in the U.S. For example, he says, a California attorney named Tom Hicks is trying to gain similar tax benefits for donated water rights as those that the Internal Revenue Service applies to land-trust donations. This would give water rights a financial value without letting speculators run amok.

????Amundsen says the Australian futures market is unlikely to spread to the U.S., partly because of the diverse water-rights laws throughout the U.S. But Waterfind plans to launch U.S. operations in January 2015.

????As Kaufman and others have noted, once the genie is out of the (water) bottle, there is no telling where a market will go.