穿越迷霧:看SpaceX的真正價(jià)值,要看它的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手
????今年1月份,,法國(guó)國(guó)家宇航局總裁(曾任Arianespace首席執(zhí)行官)在法國(guó)《世界報(bào)》(Le Monde)發(fā)表社論文章,詳細(xì)列舉了SpaceX采取過(guò)的正確措施,,并敦促歐洲航天業(yè)盡快效仿,。2月份,Arianespace現(xiàn)任董事長(zhǎng)兼首席執(zhí)行官斯塔費(fèi)恩?伊斯雷爾向歐洲航天局(European Space Agency)表示,,自己的公司可能需要?dú)W洲政府提供更多補(bǔ)貼,,以便保持足夠的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。他說(shuō),,SpaceX推出獵鷹9號(hào)(Falcon 9)中型運(yùn)載火箭對(duì)Arianespace構(gòu)成了相當(dāng)大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力,。在7月份的柏林國(guó)際航空航天展上,空客集團(tuán)(Airbus Group)CEO湯姆?恩德斯敦促歐洲航天器發(fā)射企業(yè)進(jìn)行徹底革新,,并且提到了SpaceX及其首席執(zhí)行官埃隆?穆斯克,。恩德斯在接受路透社(Reuters)采訪時(shí)表示:“雖然歐洲航天業(yè)一直都相當(dāng)成功,而穆斯克給我們帶來(lái)了對(duì)它進(jìn)行重整的機(jī)會(huì),。我們得大幅改進(jìn)并整合這個(gè)行業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu),,不然就會(huì)變得無(wú)足輕重,?!?/p> ????這些航天公司不光是嘴上說(shuō)說(shuō)而已。7月份,,Arianespace下調(diào)了航天器發(fā)射價(jià)格,,目的是盡量削弱SpaceX在市場(chǎng)上的優(yōu)勢(shì)。但據(jù)報(bào)道,,和SpaceX的低廉價(jià)格相比,,Arianespace還差得很遠(yuǎn)。空客和法國(guó)推進(jìn)系統(tǒng)制造商賽峰集團(tuán)(Safran)已經(jīng)建立了一家合資公司,,雙方各出資一半,。這家合資公司旨在為歐洲設(shè)計(jì)一款成本較低的新型火箭。歐洲航天部門(mén)的幾名官員和一些潛在未來(lái)客戶都已要求Arianespace重新考慮乃至重新設(shè)計(jì)它新推出的阿麗亞娜6型(Ariane 6)火箭,。 ????美國(guó)方面,,以往在航天器發(fā)射領(lǐng)域從未遇到過(guò)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的那些公司發(fā)現(xiàn),自己必須針對(duì)SpaceX采取相應(yīng)措施,。今年早些時(shí)候,,SpaceX把美國(guó)空軍告上了法庭,原因是后者將一系列軍事衛(wèi)星發(fā)射任務(wù)交給了波音(Boeing)和洛克希德-馬?。↙ockheed Martin)設(shè)立的合資公司United Launch Alliance(ULA),。SpaceX提出,這份合同在招標(biāo)時(shí)并沒(méi)有采用競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的方式,。一名聯(lián)邦法院法官已經(jīng)下令就此進(jìn)行審查,。就算雙方正在打官司,SpaceX還是通過(guò)了美國(guó)空軍的認(rèn)證,,從而有資格用自己的獵鷹9號(hào)火箭發(fā)射軍用航天器,。 ????在商業(yè)航天業(yè)分析機(jī)構(gòu)NewSpace Global(簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng):NSG)的私營(yíng)航天公司排行榜上,SpaceX高居榜首,。NSG聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官理查德?戴維說(shuō):“雖然歐洲航天局,、Arianespace和賽峰以前可能沒(méi)把它當(dāng)回事,但現(xiàn)在它們一定嚴(yán)陣以待,。我們的分析師追蹤全球約700家公司,,不光是SpaceX和它的歐洲競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。但SpaceX獨(dú)占鰲頭有它的道理,?!?/p> ????在航天器發(fā)射領(lǐng)域,絕對(duì)沒(méi)有誰(shuí)能對(duì)接二連三獲得成功的SpaceX視而不見(jiàn),,這比任何估值傳聞都能更好地體現(xiàn)SpaceX的現(xiàn)狀和未來(lái),。同時(shí),世界上其他航天公司無(wú)力對(duì)SpaceX進(jìn)行反擊,,這對(duì)該公司的未來(lái)前景同樣重要,。商業(yè)航天代價(jià)昂貴而且挑戰(zhàn)紛繁,這是名副其實(shí)的“高科技”,,這也意味著SpaceX的大多數(shù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手要么是合資企業(yè),,就像ULA以及空客和賽峰的合資公司,要么就是像Arianespace那樣的官僚型跨國(guó)公司,,它們有二十幾個(gè)大股東,,來(lái)自十幾個(gè)歐洲國(guó)家,,這些股東都想對(duì)公司產(chǎn)生影響,又都在其中爭(zhēng)奪利益,。 |
????In January, the president of the French national space agency (and former Arianespace CEO) wrote an op-ed in France’s Le Monde detailing all the things SpaceX has done right, calling on the European space industry to adapt as quickly as possible. In February, Arianespace’s current chairman and CEO Stephane Israel told the European Space Agency that it may need additional subsidies from European governments in order to remain a viable competitor, citing the arrival of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 medium-lift rocket as the cause of its competitive headaches. At the Berlin Airshow in July, Airbus Group CEO Tom Enders urged Europe to completely overhaul its space launcher industry, mentioning SpaceX and CEO Elon Musk by name. “Musk gives us the opportunity to shake up what has been quite a successful European space industry,” Enders told Reuters. “We either much improve and integrate our industrial structures or we’ll become irrelevant.” ????It’s not just talk coming out of the global space industry. In July Arianespace cut its launch prices in an effort to minimize SpaceX’s market advantage, though its prices are reportedly still nowhere near as low as SpaceX’s. Airbus and Safran, a French propulsion systems maker, have entered into a 50-50 joint venture aimed at designing a new, less costly rocket for Europe. Several European space officials and potential future customers have called for a rethinking and possible redesign of Arianespace’s new Ariane 6 rocket. ????Back in the U.S., competitors that have traditionally enjoyed non-competitive launch markets have found themselves forced to respond to SpaceX. Earlier this year SpaceX sued the United States Air Force over an $11 billion contract awarded to Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture United Launch Alliance (ULA) for a block of military satellite launches. SpaceX claims the contract was awarded through a bidding process that was not competitive, and a federal judge has ordered a review of the dealings. Even as it was suing the Air Force, SpaceX still managed to receive USAF certification to launch military hardware aboard it Falcon 9 rocket. ????“While the European Space Agency, Arianespace, Safran may not have taken SpaceX seriously before, those entities certainly are taking SpaceX seriously now,” says Richard David, co-founder and CEO of commercial space industry analysis firm NewSpace Global, whose global ranking of private space companies places SpaceX at the very top. “NSG analysts track around 700 companies worldwide, and it’s not just about SpaceX and its European launch competitors. But SpaceX is ranked number one for a reason.” ????The fact that absolutely no one in the business of launching payloads into space has been able to ignore SpaceX as it piles success upon success says more about the company and its future prospects than any rumored dollar valuation. And just as important to SpaceX’s future prospects is the global aerospace industry’s inability to respond. The high costs and myriad challenges inherent in the commercial spaceflight industry—this is, quite literally, rocket science—means that most of SpaceX’scompetitors are either joint ventures like ULA and Airbus-Safran or large, bureaucratic, multinationals like Arianespace, which counts two dozen major shareholders from nearly a dozen European states all asserting influence and competing interests into the company calculus. |
-
熱讀文章
-
熱門(mén)視頻