????多年前,，一些有識之士就確信,，電商的增長速度將比實體店快得多,。在傳統(tǒng)零售商看來，這一點并沒有那么顯而易見——直至最近。2001年,，我曾對一些同事表示，沃爾瑪公司（Wal-Mart）應該收購亞馬遜公司（Amazon）,，以獲得在線零售的優(yōu)勢（當時亞馬遜的股價約為5美元）,。但這個提法卻遭到了嘲笑。我當時買了亞馬遜的股票,，但很顯然并沒有賺到最大回報,，因為不到18個月我就以3倍價格賣掉了（現(xiàn)在股價是317美元）。我想,，當時有些富有預見的投資銀行家在提出沃爾瑪應該收購亞馬遜這樣的建議后，也受到了類似嘲諷,。如果當時這個建議成真,，就不知道今天的世界會是什么模樣，因為沃爾瑪治下的亞馬遜是很容易脫軌的,。

????而如今,，羽翼豐滿的電商正在讓傳統(tǒng)零售商承受巨大壓力。2014年,，美國的在線零售額有望超過3000億美元,。隨著電商在零售業(yè)所占的份額越來越大，它已搶走了實體店的人氣,，線下增長實際上已停滯不前,。在這種情勢下，很多傳統(tǒng)零售商終于有點開竅了,。沃爾瑪日前宣布該公司將大幅增加在線投資,，以努力縮小與亞馬遜的差距。有不少媒體報道稱,，沃爾瑪?shù)脑诰€銷售額正在快速增長,。結(jié)果，有些人就會誤讀亞馬遜與沃爾瑪網(wǎng)店的相對增速,，并開始相信沃爾瑪正在縮小差距,。但這實際上與事實相去甚遠，因為單純將大數(shù)字與較小數(shù)字相比是有一定欺騙性的,。

????相信沃爾瑪正迎頭趕上的一大理由是，據(jù)華爾街的一致估算,，沃爾瑪本財年網(wǎng)店銷售額預計增長30%,，而亞馬遜則“僅”增長20%,。光看這一數(shù)字存在如下四大問題：

????1.沃爾瑪?shù)脑鲩L額中有一部分頗具欺騙性,，因為它部分是由其實體店轉(zhuǎn)移到網(wǎng)店的銷售額構(gòu)成的,。

????2.沃爾瑪?shù)脑鏊倩谝粋€小得多的數(shù)字。下圖顯示的是亞馬遜和沃爾瑪去年銷售收入的實際增長額,。盡管沃爾瑪有望增長30億美元（這已令人肅然起敬了）,，但亞馬遜145億美元的增長額是沃爾瑪?shù)慕?倍，僅這一數(shù)字就遠超沃爾瑪?shù)恼w在線銷售額,。

????3.零售業(yè)整體從實體店向網(wǎng)上轉(zhuǎn)移對沃爾瑪實體店的經(jīng)營構(gòu)成了極大壓力,。去年沃爾瑪在美國的總銷售額增長率是1.6%，而同店銷售額實際上是有所下降的,。

????4.亞馬遜的銷售額是按照凈值確認的,。由于這些銷售額中日益增長的部分為銷售其他商家產(chǎn)品獲得的凈收入（利潤極高）,，因此該公司實際掌控的銷售額遠超其所報收入。亞馬遜還披露了該公司從亞馬遜網(wǎng)絡服務（Amazon Web Services）信用卡和廣告中獲取的服務收入,。如果我們假定剩余銷售額是亞馬遜從第三方商家——也被稱為亞馬遜市場（Amazon Marketplace）——收入中獲得的分成（也是按凈值確認）,，那就可以計算出第三方商家每年的總收入。將這部分收入換算為第三方商家銷售的商品,，就可算出亞馬遜從這個市場中所獲的平均推介費,。假定亞馬遜收取的平均推介費為該市場總銷售額的15%，那就可以算出亞馬遜催生的所有產(chǎn)品銷售總收入,。2013年，這個數(shù)字就是1250億美元,，而不是該公司自己報告的740億美元總收入,。這一總數(shù)還意味著公司的銷售額增長率是28%，而不是公司報稱的22%,。

????Many years ago it became obvious to some of us that online retail would continue to grow at a much faster pace than brick and mortar stores. This appeared to be less obvious to traditional retailers until more recently. In 2001, I suggested to some colleagues that Wal-Mart WMT 0.29% should acquire Amazon to gain an edge in online retail (Amazon stock was about $5 a share at the time). This idea was scoffed at. I bought Amazon AMZN 0.07% stock but, clearly, didn’t maximize my execution as I sold it within 18 months for 3 times the return (it’s now $317). I’m guessing there were also some prescient investment bankers who received a similar response after suggesting that Wal-Mart buy Amazon. Who knows what the world would be like today had that occurred, as Amazon could easily have been derailed under Wal-Mart management.

????Now, traditional retailers are under extraordinary pressure as online has matured and is expected to exceed $300 billion in U.S. sales in 2014. As online retail has claimed a larger and larger share of the overall retail business, it has sucked the air out of brick and mortar stores, and offline growth has come to a virtual standstill. With this emergence, many traditional players have finally seen the light. Wal-Mart has announced it will be increasing its online investments by a substantial amount in an effort to try to close the gap against Amazon. There has been much press about the acceleration in Wal-Mart’s online sales, and as a result, there are some who will mistakenly look at the relative growth numbers of Amazon vs. Wal-Mart’s online store and start to believe Wal-Mart is closing the gap. This could not be further from the truth as it is deceptive to compare larger numbers to smaller ones.

????One reason to believe that Wal-Mart is catching up is because in the current fiscal year, the retailer is expected to grow online sales by 30% while is Amazon “only” expected to post a 20% gain, according to consensus Wall Street estimates. There are four problems with focusing on this number:

????1. A portion of Wal-Mart’s growth is deceptive because it partly consists of shifting sales away from its physical stores to its online store.

????2. Wal-Mart’s growth comes off of a much smaller number. In the chart below we look at the actual dollar growth of Amazon and Wal-Mart last year. While Wal-Mart is expected to increase online sales by a very respectable $3 billion, Amazon’s gain of $14.5 billion is nearly 5 times Wal-Mart’s dollar gain, and the gain alone will exceed Wal-Mart’s total online sales.

????3. The shift of overall retail toward online from physical stores has pressured Wal-Mart’s growth in its brick and mortar operations. Last year, Wal-Mart’s overall US revenue growth, including online sales, was 1.6% with same store sales actually declining slightly.

????4. Amazon sales are recognized on a net basis. Since an increasing proportion of the sales are net dollars (at very high margins) received for selling other merchants products, the amount of sales that it controls far exceeds its reported revenue. They also report what amount of their services revenue is from the combination of Amazon Web Services credit card and advertising. If we assume that the remainder is their share of third-party merchant revenue (also known as Amazon Marketplace) (which is reported on a net basis) then we are able to calculate gross third-party merchant revenue by year. The conversion of that revenue to products sold by third-party merchants is a matter of projecting what Amazon’s average referral fee is for the marketplace. If we assume that Amazon receives 15%, on average, of total marketplace sales then we are able to calculate the total of all product revenue generated by Amazon. In 2013, this would be $125 billion rather than the $74 billion reported by them as total revenue. And this total would be up 28% rather than the reported growth of 22% for the company.