????隨著公眾對(duì)空氣和水污染不滿的漸增,，近幾個(gè)月，中國(guó)中央政府限制使用煤炭的力度倍增,。2013年9月,，中央政府發(fā)布了《大氣污染防治行動(dòng)計(jì)劃》，目標(biāo)是讓京津冀地區(qū)細(xì)顆粒物濃度下降25%,，長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)下降20%,。

????包括北京和上海在內(nèi)的主要城市已經(jīng)對(duì)使用煤炭做出了嚴(yán)格限制。按照十二五規(guī)劃,，2015年中國(guó)煤炭產(chǎn)能將達(dá)到41億噸,。今年10月份，中國(guó)政府表示,，將不再核準(zhǔn)新建30萬噸（約合33萬凈噸）以下的煤礦,，這實(shí)際上封殺了那些造成煤炭供給過剩的小型不規(guī)范煤礦。數(shù)百個(gè)小煤礦已經(jīng)關(guān)閉,，中國(guó)政府同時(shí)采取措施限制進(jìn)口“臟”煤,，即含硫量和灰分高的煤炭（盡管中國(guó)煤炭市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)供過于求，但受國(guó)內(nèi)運(yùn)輸條件限制,，購(gòu)買印尼或澳大利亞煤炭要比購(gòu)買山西和內(nèi)蒙等國(guó)內(nèi)北部省份的煤炭便宜,，所以中國(guó)一直在進(jìn)口煤炭）,。

????與此同時(shí),，中國(guó)正在實(shí)施一項(xiàng)宏偉計(jì)劃,，其內(nèi)容不是整體關(guān)閉煤炭行業(yè)，而是將其遷移到內(nèi)陸,，遠(yuǎn)離沿海地區(qū)大城市以及國(guó)際環(huán)保團(tuán)體的挑剔目光,。今年4月份我曾從山西向《財(cái)富》雜志發(fā)回過報(bào)道，在中央和省政府的指導(dǎo)下,，煤炭企業(yè)正在西北省份建立大型煤炭基地,。這些基地將包括大型煤礦、通過特高壓輸電線路和沿海城市相連的發(fā)電廠,、大型煤制油工廠以及混凝土廠和化工廠等配套設(shè)施,。

????這項(xiàng)重大的遷移及整合計(jì)劃可能會(huì)讓北京、上海和深圳等城市的天空藍(lán)起來,，從而降低空氣污染引發(fā)的呼吸道疾病發(fā)病率和死亡人數(shù),。這項(xiàng)措施還有可能理順煤炭行業(yè)格局，讓供需更加平衡,，并減少中國(guó)的石油進(jìn)口,。但它無法降低中國(guó)的整體碳排放水平。實(shí)際上,，此舉可能大幅度提高中國(guó)的碳排放量,，原因是燃煤數(shù)量的增多以及碳密集型生產(chǎn)工藝將得到更普遍的使用，特別是煤制油,。

????世界資源研究所（World Resources Institute）重點(diǎn)關(guān)注中國(guó)能源問題的高級(jí)研究員楊艾倫（音譯）說：“我們非常擔(dān)心,。在沿海地區(qū)執(zhí)行更嚴(yán)格的空氣污染標(biāo)準(zhǔn)意味著關(guān)閉燃煤發(fā)電廠，這將為天然氣帶來大量需求,。中國(guó)西部地區(qū)想將煤轉(zhuǎn)換成天然氣并對(duì)外供應(yīng),。這對(duì)全世界來說是一項(xiàng)非常不好的工藝?！?/p>

????新聞?lì)^條記者經(jīng)常用“依賴上癮”來形容中國(guó)與煤炭的關(guān)系,。將此想象為一場(chǎng)失敗的婚姻也許更為合適——在這里，雙方誰(shuí)也離不開誰(shuí),。中國(guó)需要煤炭行業(yè)來滿足國(guó)內(nèi)能源需求,。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)（就算年增長(zhǎng)率為7-8%，而不是過去10年中白熱化的10-12%）和中產(chǎn)階層的擴(kuò)大,，中國(guó)的能源需求必將繼續(xù)上升,。當(dāng)然，煤炭行業(yè)也要依靠需求的不斷擴(kuò)大來保持增長(zhǎng),，從而為10年來投入的大量資金提供回報(bào),，并通過煤礦、燃煤發(fā)電廠以及相關(guān)行業(yè)創(chuàng)造出數(shù)以十萬計(jì)的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。在山西,、內(nèi)蒙古和新疆,，都存在著整座城市都依賴于煤炭開采和加工的現(xiàn)象。

????煤炭行業(yè)已經(jīng)在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)體系中自成一體,。壓縮煤炭行業(yè)的規(guī)模將造成大量人員失業(yè),。盡管中國(guó)正在大力推廣可再生能源和天然氣，但很難想象中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和煤炭的這種相互依存關(guān)系很快就會(huì)被打破,。

????但這并不是說沒有希望,。近幾年，隨著中國(guó)的出口型經(jīng)濟(jì)向科技含量較高的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)移,，中國(guó)的整體能源密集度（創(chuàng)造單位GDP所需的能源）已經(jīng)下降,。據(jù)路透社（Reuters）報(bào)道，國(guó)家發(fā)改委表示,，中國(guó)大多數(shù)地區(qū)都將達(dá)到或者超額完成2015年節(jié)能目標(biāo),；預(yù)計(jì)今年中國(guó)的能源消費(fèi)增速將比2013年下降一半。綠色和平組織（Greenpeace）駐中國(guó)研究人員指出,，2014年前三個(gè)季度,，中國(guó)的燃煤總量比上年同期減少了1-2%。

????綠色和平組織的分析師們寫道：“相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)表明,，作為全球最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體,，中國(guó)終于開始從根本上降低溫室氣體排放增速?！?/p>

????不過,，難以駕馭的中國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)仍在增長(zhǎng)。今年10月份,，就在清華大學(xué)公布上述研究結(jié)果的同時(shí),，新華社報(bào)道稱新疆西部發(fā)現(xiàn)了儲(chǔ)量128億噸的大型煤田，而且已經(jīng)開始采煤,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????審校：李翔

????Facing mounting public outrage over air and water pollution, the central government’s actions to limit coal use have multiplied in recent months. The Airborne Pollution Action Plan, unveiled by the central government in September 2013, calls for a reduction of air pollution in the northern region surrounding Beijing by 25%, and 20% in the Yangtze River Delta.

????Already, strict limitations on coal use in major urban areas, including Beijing and Shanghai, are in place. Planning to cap total coal production at 4.1 billion tons as of 2015, the government said in October it will no longer approve new coal mining projects below 300,000 metric tons (330,000 short tons), effectively banning the small, unregulated mines that have contributed to the coal glut. Hundreds of small mines have already closed, and the government has also taken steps to restrict imports of “dirty” coal—i.e., coal with high levels of ash and sulfur. (Although China’s coal market is oversupplied, imports continue because domestic transport issues mean it’s often cheaper to purchase coal shipped from Indonesia or Australia than buy domestic coal from the northern provinces of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.)

????At the same time, though, China is embarking on a grandiose plan not to shut down the coal industry but to move it inland, away from the big cities of the coast and from the prying eyes of international environmental groups. As I reported for Fortune from Shanxi Province in April, coal producers, under the direction of the central and provincial governments, are building huge “coal bases” in the northwest provinces that will include large mines, power plants connected to coastal cities via gigantic high-voltage transmission lines, huge plants to convert coal to liquid fuel, and related facilities such as concrete plants and chemical plants.

????This huge migration and consolidation may well clean up the skies in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, thus reducing rates of respiratory disease and deaths linked to air pollution. It could also rationalize the coal industry, better matching supply to demand, and reduce China’s imports of foreign oil. What it won’t do is reduce the country’s overall carbon emissions; in fact, it could drastically increase them, as more coal gets burned and more carbon-intensive processes – particularly coal-to-liquids conversion – are expanded.

????“We are very concerned” about the coal-base plan, says Ailun Yang, a senior associate with the World Resources Institute who focuses on energy issues in China. “Enforcing tougher air pollution standards along the coast will lead to shutting down coal plants, and create demand for a lot more gas. The western parts of China want to supply the gas by turning coal into gas. That process will be very, very bad for the world.”

????Headline writers often refer to China’s “addiction” to coal. The relationship might be better thought of as a bad marriage, where neither partner can afford to leave. China needs the coal industry to fuel its demand for energy, which will surely continue to rise as the economy grows (even at rates of 7% to 8% a year, rather than the red-hot 10% to 12% annually of the last decade) and the middle class expands. The coal industry, of course, requires rising demand to continue to grow, to generate returns on its huge capital investments of the last decade, and to provide jobs for the hundreds of thousands of people who work in coal mines, coal plants, and related industries. In Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, entire cities depend on coal production and processing.

????Coal in China has created an economy within an economy, and reducing the size of the coal industry would result in massive unemployment across large swaths of the country. Notwithstanding China’s huge push on renewable energy and natural gas, it’s hard to see how this co-dependency will be broken any time soon.

????That’s not to say there’s no hope. China’s overall energy intensity (the amount of energy required to produce a given unit of GDP) has gone down in recent years, as the export-led economy shifts toward higher-tech products and services. Most areas of the country are on track to meet or exceed energy-conservation targets for 2015, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (as reported by Reuters), and the rate of growth in energy use is expected to fall by half this year compared to 2013. According to China-based researchers for Greenpeace, the total amount of coal burned in the first three-quarters of 2014 was 1% to 2% lower than the same period a year earlier.

????“The data suggests the world’s largest economy is finally starting to radically slow down its emission growth,” wrote the Greenpeace analysts.

????Still, the coal beast on the mainland continues to grow. In October, just as the results of the Tsinghua University study of coal fatalities was being released, the national news agency Xinhua reported that a huge coal field, containing 12.8 billion tons, had been discovered in western Xinjiang. Mining has already begun.