智能手機使個人計算發(fā)生了革命性變化,，創(chuàng)造了一種大多數(shù)人全天24小時觸手可及的電腦。而物聯(lián)網(wǎng)將把我們的房屋,、車輛,、臥室和辦公室連接起來并收集數(shù)據(jù)，從而有望催生下一個計算革命,。

????僅僅一兩年之后，在全球范圍內,，物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設備的數(shù)量將超過個人電腦,、智能手機和筆記本電腦的總數(shù),。根據(jù)各種不同的預測，到2020年,，全球聯(lián)網(wǎng)設備最少將達410億臺,，最多將達800億臺,。

????但這將如何真正地改變我們的工作和生活方式呢？

????搜索引擎已死,，搜索行為永存

????近些年來,，人們一直在說，搜索引擎已死,，但我們會發(fā)現(xiàn)自己還是在谷歌上找飯店,、找最好的滑雪裝備或研究一家新公司。但物聯(lián)網(wǎng)的燦爛前景意味著,，大家以后再也不用搜索了。你擁有的所有互聯(lián)設備,，將自動收集更多關于個人信息,、習慣、需求和喜好等方面的數(shù)據(jù),。這些數(shù)據(jù)累積起來,，就會浮現(xiàn)出一個完整的虛擬檔案,，進而能夠提前了解你的需求所在。

????實際上,，你甚至不必主動詢問,，物聯(lián)網(wǎng)就能預測你的需求，在必要的搜索之后,，它就會提供你所需的結果。在你感覺太熱之前,，它就能調整空調,，在你注意到紙巾快用完之前,，它就能自動訂購新紙巾。顯然,，搜索還會進行,，只不過整個過程是在幕后進行,。如果物聯(lián)網(wǎng)真能發(fā)展成我們所預期的模樣，大家就再也無需訪問谷歌的主頁了——除非你想欣賞一下每天更新的涂鴉作品,。

????生態(tài)系統(tǒng)就是一切

????要想迎來這一發(fā)展，我們所有的設備和數(shù)據(jù)都必須充分互聯(lián),。到2020年,，每個人平均將擁有超過4臺物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設備，但如果它們彼此孤立,，就不會發(fā)揮什么作用。

????就像操作系統(tǒng)已成為移動生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的動力基礎一樣,，讓物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設備彼此互聯(lián)的中央平臺也將成為行業(yè)基石,。這些平臺將收集并分析來自各種來源的數(shù)據(jù)，并與移動支付,、商務和其他服務相連,，從而使用戶能基于這些信息采取行動。一個開放的平臺是創(chuàng)建物聯(lián)網(wǎng)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的關鍵,，這個系統(tǒng)整體比其構成部分更強大,。

????在公司層面,，打造一個強有力的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)也是成功的關鍵所在。物聯(lián)網(wǎng)的贏家將是那些打造出龐大且忠誠的用戶群的企業(yè),。就產(chǎn)品而言,，更多用戶會產(chǎn)生更多數(shù)據(jù),，這會讓算法獲得更多信息并輸出更好的結果。更大的出貨量也會讓企業(yè)對供應商獲得更多優(yōu)勢,，并使自己對合作伙伴產(chǎn)生更大的吸引力,。正如社交層面一樣,，網(wǎng)絡效應總是至關重要的。

????中美將互相依賴

????要成為一家成功的物聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)絕非易事,。事實上,，物聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)必須同時具備以下這三類卓越企業(yè)的特質：

????1,、硬件企業(yè)：生產(chǎn)配備用于收集數(shù)據(jù)的高品質傳感器的優(yōu)秀產(chǎn)品。

????2,、平臺企業(yè)：收集,、處理并分析大量數(shù)據(jù)，提供有價值的洞見,。

????3、軟件企業(yè)：創(chuàng)造一流的用戶體驗,，使數(shù)據(jù)中獲得的洞見可以執(zhí)行,。

????一家公司要想同時做好所有這些方面非常困難,。而如果擁有全球化視野,，公司就能找到最佳解決方案——不管這種方案身在何處,。

????在我們的投資組合中就有幾家這種公司，比如Zepp和EHANG,，它們在硅谷和中國都設有總部，這是因為它們知道自己必須在這兩個地方都獲得成功,。在美國,，它們能找到經(jīng)驗豐富的產(chǎn)品設計師、工程師,、營銷專家，并接觸到高端消費市場,。在中國,，它們能獲得生產(chǎn)及供應鏈優(yōu)勢,，不同層次的工程師以及一個巨大的發(fā)展中消費市場。

????全球化運營還能讓企業(yè)服務于不同的小眾市場,，或運用案例獲得規(guī)模效應,。盡管客戶體驗和入市策略可能需要作出調整，以適應不同市場和部門,，但后端技術卻能在全球范圍內應用,。我們希望今后有更多物聯(lián)網(wǎng)（及其他技術類）企業(yè)拋開“本土”企業(yè)的束縛,，從一開始就真正按全球化方式運作。

????不只手機具有移動性

????蘋果智能手表的推出,，實際上預示著物聯(lián)網(wǎng)即將迎來的新一輪進化：硬件,、軟件和移動終端之間的界線不再清晰,。

????迄今為止，物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設備一直是一堆與智能手機應用相連接的硬件,，通過手機才能與它們互動,。而這款手表標志著一個重大轉變，即它把硬件,、傳感器與軟件和用戶界面整合到了一個設備中。盡管它仍需要通過iPhone聯(lián)網(wǎng),，但很容易看出,，未來的iWatch將讓手機再無容身之地,。

????隨著物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設備不斷升級,，它們將具有更多“移動”特性，并成為很多目前我們要靠智能手機才能實現(xiàn)的功能的新平臺,。除了讓搜索過時,，在不遠的將來，物聯(lián)網(wǎng)還能讓智能手機變得落伍,。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者李宏瑋和童世豪為紀源資本管理合伙人。李宏瑋常駐上海,，童世豪常駐硅谷,。

????譯者：清遠

????審校：任文科

????The smartphone revolutionized personal computing, creating a computer that most of us have within arm’s reach 24 hours a day. The Internet of Things promises to revolutionize computing again, by connecting and collecting data from everything we live in, drive in, eat in, sleep in and work in.

????In just a year or two, the number of IoT devices will outnumber the number of PCs, smartphones and laptops globally. Forecasts range from as low as 41 billion to as high as 80 billion connected devices worldwide by 2020.

????But how will this really change how we live and work?

????Search is dead, long live search

????For years people have been claiming that search is dead, but we still find ourselves on Google GOOG 1.57% looking for a restaurant, searching for the best ski equipment or researching a new company. However, the promise of Io T means never having to search again. With every connected device you have, more data is collected about you, your habits, your needs and your preferences. When this data is aggregated, a complete virtual profile of you emerges. This profile will will know what you need before you do.

????The virtual you will be able to anticipate your needs, perform the necessary search and deliver the result you need, before you even have to ask. It will be able to adjust your thermostat before you realize you are too hot or place an order for tissues before you notice you have run out. Obviously, search still happens, but it is all done behind the scenes. If the Internet of Things becomes what we believe it can be, you’ll never need to visit the Google homepage again – except to check the daily doodle.

????It’s all about the ecosystem

????For this to happen, all our devices and all our data have to be connected. By 2020, the average person will have more than four Internet-connected devices, but they won’t be very useful if they exist in silos.

????Just as operating systems have become the bases of power in the mobile ecosystem, the central platforms through which IoT devices connect will be the locus of the industry. These platforms will enable the aggregation and analysis of data from a variety of sources and will connect to mobile payments, commerce and other services so users can take action based on that information. An open platform is key to creating an IoT ecosystem that is greater than the sum of its parts.

????At the company level, building a strong ecosystem is also critical to success. The winners in IoT will be companies that build large, loyal user bases. On the product side, more users create more data, which informs algorithms and delivers better results. Shipping more units also gives companies more leverage with suppliers and makes them more attractive to partners. Just as in the social sector, network effects will matter.

????The U.S. and China will need each other

????Being a successful IoT company is hard. In fact, IoT companies have to be three great companies in one:

????1.Hardware: Building beautiful products with high-quality sensors to collect data.

????2.Platform: Collecting, processing and analyzing massive quantities of data to deliver insights.

????3.Software: Creating best-in-class user experiences to make insights actionable.

????With such requirements, it becomes very difficult for a company to do all things well in one place. A global perspective allows the company to seek out best-in-breed solutions – wherever they may be.

????We have several companies in our own investment portfolio, including Zepp and EHANG, that were founded with headquarters in both Silicon Valley and China, because they realized they needed to be in both places to succeed. In the U.S., they get experienced product designers and engineers, marketing experts and access to the high-end consumer market. In China, they have manufacturing and supply chain superiority, a breadth of engineering resources and a massive developing consumer market.

????Playing in the global market also allows companies serving niche segments or use cases to still achieve massive scale. While UX and go-to-market strategies may need to adapt to different markets and segments, the back-end technologies can apply globally. We expect to see more IoT (and other tech) companies in the future throw off the limitations of being a “national” company and truly embrace being global from day one.

????Mobile won’t always be on mobile

????The launch last week of the Apple Watch AAPL 1.24% actually foreshadows another evolution coming in IoT: blurring the lines between hardware, software, and mobile.

????IoT devices to date have been pieces of hardware that connect to an app on your smartphone, which allows you to interact with them. The Apple Watch signals an important shift as it combines the hardware and sensors with the software and user interface into one device. While it still requires an iPhone to connect to the Internet, it is easy to see a future “iWatch” that eliminates the need for the phone entirely.

????As IoT devices evolve, they will take on more “mobile” qualities and become the new home for many functions we currently rely on our smartphones to perform. In addition to making search obsolete, IoT could make the smartphone irrelevant in the near future.

????Jenny Lee and Hans Tung are managing partners with venture capital firm GGV Capital. Lee is based in Shanghai, while Tung is based in Silicon Valley.