????流媒體視頻服務(wù)供應(yīng)商N(yùn)etflix最近披露的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，今年一季度它創(chuàng)下了新的增長(zhǎng)紀(jì)錄,，美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)訂閱用戶(hù)增長(zhǎng)了230萬(wàn)，國(guó)際訂閱用戶(hù)增長(zhǎng)了260萬(wàn),。目前,，Netflix稱(chēng)其全球用戶(hù)數(shù)已達(dá)6200萬(wàn)。面對(duì)如此高速增長(zhǎng),，綜合性金融公司FBR & Co.分析師巴頓?克羅基特將Netflix的一年期目標(biāo)價(jià)定為每股900美元,，相對(duì)于當(dāng)前股價(jià)，上升空間接近60%,?？肆_基特還預(yù)計(jì)，Netflix的全球用戶(hù)數(shù)將達(dá)到1.8億,。

????Netflix的增長(zhǎng)很大程度上得益于其成功的海外擴(kuò)張,，以及一系列原創(chuàng)新劇的不斷推出，比如改編自漫威漫畫(huà)的《超膽俠》,、《血族》,，而且現(xiàn)有熱播劇《紙牌屋》和《女子監(jiān)獄》等都推出了新一季。Netflix還有部分收入來(lái)自不愿意忍受昂貴的有線及衛(wèi)星電視的消費(fèi)者,，對(duì)他們來(lái)說(shuō)Netflix提供了娛樂(lè)新選擇,。

????然而，海外擴(kuò)張和優(yōu)質(zhì)節(jié)目需要都投入大量資金,，而且得持續(xù)投入,。Netflix購(gòu)買(mǎi)和制作節(jié)目的成本正節(jié)節(jié)攀升,。同時(shí)，海外市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)張策略在盈利前要承受相當(dāng)大的成本壓力,。換句話說(shuō),，想實(shí)現(xiàn)預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)，Netflix需要健康的現(xiàn)金流支撐,。

????這些因素帶來(lái)了收購(gòu)Netflix的良機(jī),。對(duì)蘋(píng)果這樣的企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，如果沒(méi)有認(rèn)真考慮過(guò)此事未免是種疏忽,。蘋(píng)果既有收購(gòu)Netflix的實(shí)力,，也有足夠的動(dòng)力。雖然影視業(yè)務(wù)可能并非蘋(píng)果的主要關(guān)注點(diǎn),，但在Netflix這樣的對(duì)手搶占市場(chǎng)之際,，蘋(píng)果當(dāng)然不能置身事外。

????盡管蘋(píng)果特有的視頻下載平臺(tái)iTunes很受歡迎,，而且能提供大量新電影和電視劇,，但并沒(méi)有像Netflix一樣提供訂閱服務(wù)，而且價(jià)格高得多,。舉例來(lái)說(shuō),，在iTunes上，一季熱門(mén)電視劇的價(jià)格可能在35美元以上,，而Netflix的包月價(jià)格才8.99美元,，而且包月后用戶(hù)可在一個(gè)月內(nèi)任意觀看各種內(nèi)容。如果Netflix的用戶(hù)群按現(xiàn)有速度急劇增長(zhǎng),，可能會(huì)對(duì)蘋(píng)果造成威脅,。Netflix原創(chuàng)劇對(duì)用戶(hù)的吸引力也是一大優(yōu)勢(shì)（iTunes上也有這些節(jié)目，但加價(jià)甚高）,。

????當(dāng)然,，如果蘋(píng)果收購(gòu)了Netflix，部分業(yè)務(wù)會(huì)和iTunes重疊,；但如果不收購(gòu),，這部分生意也會(huì)被獨(dú)立的Netflix奪走，結(jié)果還是一樣,。如果消費(fèi)者更青睞Netflix,，他們完全沒(méi)無(wú)理由花更多的錢(qián)在iTunes上購(gòu)買(mǎi)同樣的節(jié)目。換句話說(shuō),，目前這部分收入幾乎已經(jīng)鉆進(jìn)Netflix的錢(qián)袋了,。而如果蘋(píng)果收購(gòu)了Netflix并且擁有控制權(quán)，就可以有效止損,，確保能賺錢(qián)的節(jié)目只在iTunes上可以購(gòu)買(mǎi),，不會(huì)同時(shí)出現(xiàn)在Netflix上,。此外，iTunes上的內(nèi)容更廣泛也更流行,，而Netflix的節(jié)目相對(duì)不穩(wěn)定,，二者完全可以在市場(chǎng)推廣方面互補(bǔ)。iTunes的賣(mài)點(diǎn)在于提供更多選擇,，Netflix則側(cè)重低價(jià)訂閱模式和優(yōu)質(zhì)劇集,。

????Netflix龐大的全球用戶(hù)規(guī)模與蘋(píng)果旗下產(chǎn)品也能形成協(xié)同營(yíng)銷(xiāo)。比如說(shuō),，Netflix的新用戶(hù)簽約后可以打折購(gòu)買(mǎi)最新款iPad,，蘋(píng)果也可以為Apple TV機(jī)頂盒綁定三個(gè)月的Netflix服務(wù)。

????既然好處良多,，接下來(lái)就要看看蘋(píng)果要怎樣收購(gòu)Netflix。

????蘋(píng)果市值超過(guò)7200億美元,，資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上有1780億美元現(xiàn)金,，接近五年來(lái)最高點(diǎn)的股價(jià)也讓蘋(píng)果股票成為“收購(gòu)硬通貨”。Netflix的市值約為347億美元,，這對(duì)蘋(píng)果來(lái)說(shuō)不在話下,，收購(gòu)方式可以用股票加現(xiàn)金，甚至可以全股票收購(gòu),。關(guān)鍵在于蘋(píng)果股票一直漲勢(shì)不減,，智能手表等新產(chǎn)品也獲得了空前的成功。對(duì)Netflix的現(xiàn)有股東來(lái)說(shuō),，這些因素將使蘋(píng)果的股票成為不錯(cuò)的支付方式,。只是蘋(píng)果的市盈率可能變成全股票收購(gòu)的潛在障礙。按2015年預(yù)期每股收益和4月20日收盤(pán)價(jià)計(jì)算,，蘋(píng)果的市盈率為14.5倍,，Netflix的市盈率為176.8倍。低市盈率公司收購(gòu)高市盈率公司往往會(huì)對(duì)前者產(chǎn)生攤薄效應(yīng),，原因是對(duì)低市盈率公司來(lái)說(shuō),，提高每股收益的效果將沒(méi)那么明顯。不過(guò),，Netflix的規(guī)模遠(yuǎn)小于蘋(píng)果,，加上投資者看好Netflix的增長(zhǎng)前景，可繼續(xù)提升蘋(píng)果的股價(jià),，這應(yīng)該可以減輕攤薄效應(yīng)的影響,。

????換句話說(shuō)，收購(gòu)Netflix這樣深受投資者青睞的公司短期或許成本很高,，但長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看可以推動(dòng)蘋(píng)果的股價(jià)上行,。如果蘋(píng)果能好好利用Netflix龐大而且仍在增長(zhǎng)的用戶(hù)群,，可以借機(jī)提高自家產(chǎn)品的銷(xiāo)量。相應(yīng)的,，Netflix也能受益,，因?yàn)樘O(píng)果有出色的營(yíng)銷(xiāo)能力，還有覆蓋全球的業(yè)務(wù),，特別是在中國(guó)等關(guān)鍵市場(chǎng),。蘋(píng)果充沛的現(xiàn)金也將令Netflix獲益。

????總之,，蘋(píng)果收購(gòu)Netflix是樁合理交易,，不過(guò)蘋(píng)果得快點(diǎn)行動(dòng)才行，以免真要收購(gòu)時(shí)Netflix的規(guī)模變得太大,，價(jià)格承擔(dān)不起,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者是一位商業(yè)評(píng)論家，曾在知名投行拉扎德和德利佳華就職,，還曾供職于對(duì)沖基金RamiusCapital,。他并未持有Netflix或蘋(píng)果公司的股票。

????譯者：Charlie

????審校：夏林

????Streaming video provider Netflix recently reported record subscriber growth of 2.3 million in the U.S. and 2.6 million internationally for the first quarter. The company now boasts 62 million subscribers worldwide. In response to the company’s rapid growth, FBR & Co. analyst Barton Crockett set a one-year price target of $900 a share for the company, a nearly 60% increase from its current level; and expects Netflixto reach 180 million global subscribers.

????Much of Netflix’s growth is being driven by its successful expansion overseas, as well as a rollout of new original programming series, such as Marvel’s Daredevil, Bloodline, and a renewal of existing hits like House of Cards and Orange is the New Black. The company also stands to benefit from consumers who don’t want to be tied to expensive cable and satellite packages in order to secure their entertainment.

????But international expansion and compelling content require large capital outlays and ongoing expenses. Netflix’s content acquisition and creation costs are trending upwards and the company’s strategy of increasing its global footprint will carry a price until those markets become profitable. In other words, Netflix will need healthy amounts of cash in order to finance its foreseeable growth.

????For these reasons, the company is ripe for acquisition, and a company like Apple would be remiss if it didn’t seriously look into a deal. Apple has both the means and motivation to acquire Netflix, and while the movie and television business may not be Apple’s prime focus, it certainly can’t afford to stand on the sidelines while a player like Netflix takes over the market.

????Although Apple’s signature iTunes platform for video downloads is popular, carrying a wide selection of new movies and television shows, it doesn’t offer a subscription service along the lines of Netflix and is much more expensive. For example, a single season of a popular show can run $35 or more versus an $8.99 all-you-can-eat monthly pass to Netflix, which also allows you to watch other content. If Netflix’s subscriber base continues to grow as dramatically as it has, this can pose a threat to Apple, and so can the appeal of Netflix’s original programming (which iTunes carries, but at a hefty premium).

????True, if Apple acquired Netflix, it would cannibalize some of its iTunes business, but the alternative is to have that same business hijacked by an independent Netflix anyway. If consumers prefer Netflix, they have little, if any, reason to buy the same content on iTunes for a higher price; so right now those revenues simply go to Netflix. But by buying the company and controlling it, Apple could effectively cut those losses by ensuring that any content that is a big revenue-generator for iTunes is not replicated on Netflix. In this way, and also given that iTunes’ library is more comprehensive and current than the more uneven Netflix, the two services could easily be marketed as complementary to each other with iTunes’ competitive advantage being its wider selection and Netflix’s advantage being its lower priced subscription model and cutting edge series.

????There can also be marketing synergies between Netflix’s global subscriber base and Apple’s stable of technological products. New subscribers to Netflix could, say, receive a rebate on the latest iPad for signing up, or Apple could bundle a three-month subscription to Netflix with the purchase of Apple TV.

????That brings us to the means by which Apple could do an acquisition.

????With a market cap of more than $720 billion, Apple has $178 billion of cash on its balance sheet but is also trading close to its 5-year high, which makes its stock a strong currency for an acquisition. The technology giant could easily finance the buyout of Netflix, worth about $34.7 billion, with a mixture of cash and stock or even fully in stock. The key is that the relentless upward momentum of Apple’s own shares, not to mention its unprecedented success with new products, such as its smartwatch, would makes its stock an attractive form of payment for current Netflix shareholders

????A possible hurdle to an all-stock deal would be Apple’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. Based on 2015 estimated earnings and its stock price on April 20, 2015, Apple’s ratio was 14.5 times versus 176.8 times for Netflix. When a company with a lower PE ratio buys a company with a higher ratio, the deal is usually dilutive for the acquirer since it gets less bang for each dollar of its own earnings. However, this can be mitigated by the much smaller size of Netflix compared to Apple, as well as the future boost for Apple shares because of investors’ bullishness about Netflix’s growth prospects.

????In other words, acquiring an investor darling like Netflix might be expensive in the short haul but can boost Apple’s shares in the long term, especially if the company is successful at leveraging Netflix’s massive and growing user base to sell more Apple products. For its part, Netflix will certainly benefit from Apple’s exceptional marketing expertise, global reach, particularly in key markets, such as China. It would also benefit from access to cash on Apple’s balance sheet.

????It’s a logical match, but only if Apple moves quickly – before Netflix becomes too big, and too expensive, to be acquired.

????Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, as well as at hedge fund Ramius Capital. Sanjay does not own shares of Netflix or Apple.