????幾年前,，我一有極度不爽的修車經(jīng)歷，就會(huì)去點(diǎn)評(píng)網(wǎng)站Yelp上給那家修理廠打個(gè)低分,。不過隨著好評(píng)不斷涌入,，那條差評(píng)很快就從首頁上消失了。這讓我對(duì)所謂的“口碑經(jīng)濟(jì)”或“打分經(jīng)濟(jì)”開始產(chǎn)生懷疑,。

????接下來的幾年,，各種打分網(wǎng)站如雨后春筍般涌現(xiàn)。從心理醫(yī)生，到使用打車軟件的乘客,，每個(gè)人和每件事現(xiàn)在都成了可以打分的對(duì)象,。正如《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》專欄作家陶曼玲使用幽默的筆觸所寫的那樣，當(dāng)她很難打上車時(shí),，Uber乘客如今也在被司機(jī)們品頭論足,。

????無所不在的打分究竟是好事還是壞事？帶著這個(gè)問題,，我深入研究了“打分界”,，并且很快發(fā)現(xiàn)了所謂“口碑經(jīng)濟(jì)”的很多問題。以下就是我的發(fā)現(xiàn),。

????打分很重要

????事實(shí)上,，打分和聲譽(yù)的確非常重要，大多數(shù)人和企業(yè)都意識(shí)到了這一點(diǎn),。正是出于這一原因,，Reputation.com（原名叫ReputationDefender）的創(chuàng)始人邁克爾?弗迪克才能開創(chuàng)出一門龐大的生意。據(jù)《衛(wèi)報(bào)》報(bào)道,，這家成立于2006年的公司“迄今已經(jīng)幫助160萬個(gè)付費(fèi)客戶展示其線上聲譽(yù)…搜索引擎顯示的結(jié)果都是其最討人喜歡的經(jīng)歷,。”無論是真實(shí)的還是帶有部分“加工”成分,，聲譽(yù)關(guān)系到一個(gè)人的職業(yè)前景,，或創(chuàng)業(yè)公司的融資能力。而人們的社會(huì)地位又會(huì)影響其婚煙前景和事業(yè)伙伴,。

????另外,，打分也深刻地影響著消費(fèi)者的選擇。一份針對(duì)1000余人的調(diào)查顯示,，三分之二的受訪者會(huì)閱讀網(wǎng)上的評(píng)價(jià),，然后90%的人表示，他們的購買決定會(huì)受到正面評(píng)價(jià)的影響,，86%的人表示負(fù)面評(píng)價(jià)也會(huì)影響他們的選擇,。一些學(xué)術(shù)文獻(xiàn)也認(rèn)可消費(fèi)者打分的重要性。一篇論文指出：“事實(shí)顯示,，消費(fèi)者的評(píng)論能夠用來預(yù)測購買決策……推動(dòng)消費(fèi)者進(jìn)一步評(píng)價(jià)……比專家評(píng)價(jià)的影響力還要大?！贝送?，該論文還指出：“銷量數(shù)據(jù)是隨同產(chǎn)品評(píng)價(jià)增長的，而不是基于產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量,?！?/p>

????消費(fèi)者的打分準(zhǔn)確嗎？

????消費(fèi)者打分的強(qiáng)大影響力引發(fā)了一個(gè)問題：這些評(píng)分既然能夠有力地影響人們的判斷和決策,，那么它們究竟有多準(zhǔn)確呢,？答案是,，這要看你怎么定義“準(zhǔn)確”。

????在以下三個(gè)例子中,，有的打分對(duì)選擇供應(yīng)商很重要,，有的則不那么重要；同時(shí)它們用來衡量表現(xiàn)的客觀標(biāo)準(zhǔn)也不一樣,。

????醫(yī)生

????就醫(yī)時(shí)能獲得最好的治療非常重要,。治療結(jié)果通常來說是直觀的，比如病情好轉(zhuǎn)的程度,，治療不當(dāng)引發(fā)其他病癥的幾率等,，由此我們以為消費(fèi)者能非常準(zhǔn)確地評(píng)價(jià)醫(yī)療服務(wù)的質(zhì)量，但實(shí)則不然,。

????Consumer’s Checkbook是一個(gè)采用會(huì)員訂閱制的機(jī)構(gòu),，主要在舊金山等幾座大城市運(yùn)營。除了要求消費(fèi)者對(duì)初級(jí)護(hù)理醫(yī)師進(jìn)行評(píng)分外,，Checkbook還對(duì)大量執(zhí)業(yè)醫(yī)師進(jìn)行了調(diào)查,，以確定各個(gè)專科的最佳醫(yī)師提名,。該機(jī)構(gòu)不接受任何廣告,，同時(shí)它也有自己的醫(yī)生質(zhì)量排名。

????2014年,，在病人評(píng)出的104名最高評(píng)級(jí)的初級(jí)護(hù)理醫(yī)師中,，只有17人被他們的同行提名為最佳人選。另外在患者評(píng)出的最高評(píng)級(jí)的醫(yī)生中,，只有60%被Checkbook評(píng)為最高級(jí),。

????A few years ago, when I had a hideously bad auto repair experience, I posted a negative rating on Yelp. And then soon the rating disappeared from the first page as positive ratings poured in. That experience made me suspicious about what has come to be called the reputation or ratings economy.

????Over the ensuing years, ratings and ratings websites have proliferated. Everyone and everything from mental health providers to, as Times columnist Maureen Dowd humorously noted when she had trouble getting a ride, Uber passengers now get rated.

????Curious about how and whether the ratings game was a good thing or not, I did a deep dive into this world and quickly discovered many problems with the reputation economy. Here is what I learned.

????Ratings matter

????Michael Fertik, the founder of Reputation.com (originally called ReputationDefender), has built a huge business on the fact that ratings and reputations matter and that most people and companies understand that. His company, started in 2006, “has curated the online reputation of 1.6 million customers who pay … to have their most flattering activities showcased to the world via search engines,” The Guardian reported. A person’s reputation—whether accurate, manufactured, or some combination of the two—can have an impact on job prospects and the ability to raise capital for startups. And people’s social status affects their marriage prospects and partners.

????Ratings profoundly affect consumer choice. One survey of more than 1,000 people reported that two-thirds of respondents read online reviews, that 90% of customers who accessed reviews said that their buying decisions were influenced by positive reviews, and 86% said that negative reviews influenced their choices. The scholarly literature concurs with the importance of consumer ratings. One article noted that, “consumer reviews have been shown to predict purchasing decisions … to drive further consumer ratings … and to have more influence than expert reviews.” Moreover, that same piece stated that, “sales figures increase as a function of product ratings rather than the quality of the product.”

????But are they accurate?

????The potent influence of consumer ratings raises the question: how accurate are these ratings that so powerfully affect judgment and decision-making? The answer to this question depends on what you mean by accurate.

????Consider three examples that vary both in the importance of selecting the right provider and also in the extent to which there are objective criteria of performance.

????Doctors

????There’s probably nothing more important than getting the best possible medical treatment. Medical outcomes, ranging from the degree of improvement in a person’s illness to the frequency of iatrogenic (medical-treatment caused) illness, are observable. You’d expect consumers to be fairly accurate in assessing the quality of the care they receive. But they aren’t.

????Consumer’s Checkbook, a membership-subscription organization that operates in several metropolitan areas, including San Francisco, asks consumers to rate primary care physicians. Checkbook also surveys practicing physicians for their nominations of the best doctors in various specialties, including primary care. The organization, which accepts no advertising, also performs its own physician quality ratings.

????Of the 104 top-rated primary care doctors as assessed by patients in 2014, just 17 were nominated as the best by their medical peers. And barely 60% of the doctors rated highest by patients were top-rated by Checkbook.