????對(duì)于微軟來(lái)說(shuō)，周三（7月29日）最新發(fā)布的Windows10操作系統(tǒng)可謂萬(wàn)眾期待,。上一個(gè)版本windows 8曾對(duì)操作界面進(jìn)行了大量改動(dòng),，并飽受批評(píng)。與此同時(shí),，微軟大膽挺近手機(jī)市場(chǎng)也尚未獲得回報(bào),。對(duì)于微軟首席執(zhí)行官薩提亞·納德拉來(lái)說(shuō)，若想完成2019年“Windows裝備10億臺(tái)設(shè)備”的目標(biāo),，那么Windows10必須大獲成功,。

????不過(guò)，納德拉已經(jīng)有一個(gè)巨大的起跑優(yōu)勢(shì),。雖然蘋(píng)果的產(chǎn)品可能吸引媒體的更多關(guān)注,，但是根據(jù)分析網(wǎng)站NetMarketShare2015年6月的估算數(shù)據(jù)，如圖所示,，每10臺(tái)電腦桌面中,，有9臺(tái)使用的都是Windows操作系統(tǒng),，再加上Windows 7和8（微軟跳過(guò)了windows9）的用戶可以免費(fèi)升級(jí)至Windows 10，所以Windows10 可能會(huì)很快占據(jù)桌面操作系統(tǒng)的市場(chǎng)份額,。

????據(jù)調(diào)研公司IDC的數(shù)據(jù)分析,，Windows10能否推進(jìn)微軟的桌面電腦業(yè)務(wù)是值得懷疑的。即便在新興國(guó)家,，目前桌面?zhèn)€人電腦市場(chǎng)也已經(jīng)達(dá)到飽和,。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，這個(gè)市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)太過(guò)擁擠,，而世界范圍內(nèi)的個(gè)人電腦銷量預(yù)計(jì)在2015年將會(huì)下跌5%,。IDC全球個(gè)人電腦追蹤部門副總裁勞倫·拉夫德在一份報(bào)告中表示，“有沒(méi)有長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展的機(jī)會(huì)要看新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的恢復(fù)和增長(zhǎng),，但隨著消費(fèi)轉(zhuǎn)向移動(dòng)設(shè)備領(lǐng)域,，我們覺(jué)得這樣的可能性并不大?！?/p>

????那么可用于平板和手機(jī)的Windows 10,，能否幫助微軟挺入手機(jī)市場(chǎng)？微軟為了吸引手機(jī)應(yīng)用開(kāi)發(fā)商,，把windows 10做得更加便于應(yīng)用開(kāi)發(fā),，并支持在各種設(shè)備上使用。從這點(diǎn)上來(lái)看,，微軟還是有一定希望,。

????然而看看公司的成績(jī)，結(jié)果似乎并不令人滿意：作為微軟目前的手機(jī)應(yīng)用系統(tǒng),，2010年發(fā)布的Windows Phone至今還未獲得良好的市場(chǎng)份額,。同時(shí)，微軟試圖在智能手機(jī)領(lǐng)域攻城略地的上一次發(fā)力,，是在2014年以72億美元收購(gòu)諾基亞,，這筆手機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)資產(chǎn)最近被減計(jì)。而在微軟近日公布業(yè)績(jī)慘淡的2015財(cái)年第四季度報(bào)告前幾周,，納德拉就在本月早些時(shí)候隱晦地承認(rèn)了諾基亞收購(gòu)計(jì)劃“并沒(méi)有奏效”,。

????而最終，無(wú)論如何努力,，也許移動(dòng)領(lǐng)域天生不是微軟所長(zhǎng),。正如下圖數(shù)據(jù)顯示的，Windows phone只占到手機(jī)操作系統(tǒng)市場(chǎng)份額的2%,。因此,，要想與谷歌安卓及蘋(píng)果IOS系統(tǒng)并駕齊驅(qū)，微軟也還有很長(zhǎng)一段路要走,，而這絕對(duì)也是2019年之后的事了,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：馮豐

????校對(duì)：詹妮

????For Microsoft, there’s a lot riding on its new Windows 10 operating system, out Wednesday. Its last attempt, Windows 8, was met with criticism over a massive interface redesign, while Microsoft’s MSFT 2.10% ventures into the mobile market have yet to bear fruit. If Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is to meet his goal of hitting 1 billion Windows-powered devices by 2019, he needs Windows 10 to be a hit.

????But Nadella has a huge advantage from the starting gate. While Apple’s offerings may get more media attention, a whopping 9 in 10 desktops are running Windows operating systems, as shown in the chart below, which uses June 2015 estimates by web analytics site NetMarketShare. Given that Windows 10 is a free upgrade for Windows 7 and 8 users (Microsoft skipped “Windows 9″), it’s reasonable to expect Windows 10 to gain desktop OS market share very quickly.

????Whether Windows 10 can push Microsoft’s desktop business any further is questionable, according to research firm IDC. Desktop PC markets are saturated even in emerging countries — they’re practically overflowing in developed areas — while worldwide PC shipments expected to fall about 5% in 2015. “Any opportunity for long-term growth depends on reviving growth in emerging regions, and that seems unlikely with the shift toward mobile devices,” said Loren Loverde, IDC’s VP of worldwide PC trackers, in a report.

????So can Windows 10, which also works on tablets and mobile phones, help Microsoft break into mobile market? There’s some hope, given Microsoft’s efforts to attract app developers for Windows 10 by making it easier to code apps that will work across devices.

????But the company’s track record isn’t exactly great: Microsoft’s current mobile OS, Windows Phone, launched in 2010, hasn’t gained any significant market share. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s last big attempt at becoming a major smartphone player — a $7.2 billion acquisition of Nokia in 2014 the company recently wrote down — is “not working,” Nadella subtly admitted earlier this month, just weeks Microsoft’s disastrous Q4 2015 earnings report.

????At the end of the day, perhaps mobile just isn’t in Microsoft’s blood, no matter how hard the company tries. As shown in the chart below, Windows Phone holds only about 2% of mobile OS market share. And there’s a long ways to go — certainly beyond 2019 — before Microsoft can stand next to Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS.