????水力壓裂行業(yè)的末日可能終于到了。

????一年來(lái),，盡管油價(jià)大幅下跌,，但能源行業(yè)破產(chǎn)的公司一直較少,。然而,，這種情況可能即將改變,。咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)ISI Evercore能源行業(yè)分析師詹姆斯·韋斯特指出,，連續(xù)數(shù)月的低開(kāi)工量已經(jīng)讓許多水力壓裂公司要么已經(jīng)資不抵債,，要么也快了。他預(yù)計(jì),，到明年底,，可能會(huì)有多達(dá)三分之一的水力壓裂服務(wù)公司破產(chǎn),。

????韋斯特說(shuō)：“石油業(yè)的這個(gè)假期并不美好。”

????到目前為止,，油氣開(kāi)采企業(yè)的支出水平雖有所回落，但它們?nèi)栽诎凑找荒昵爸贫ǖ念A(yù)算來(lái)投入資金,，而一年前的油價(jià)要高的多。維斯特認(rèn)為,，如今油價(jià)對(duì)油氣開(kāi)采公司形成倒逼,，這些公司也許很快就得大幅削減服務(wù)支出,，而銀行將成為催化劑,。

????當(dāng)初銀行向這些油氣公司發(fā)放貸款時(shí)，依據(jù)的是后者的儲(chǔ)量?jī)r(jià)值,。但對(duì)這一數(shù)值的審計(jì)只在每年10月份進(jìn)行一次,。考慮到一年來(lái)油價(jià)下跌的幅度,，許多分析師都認(rèn)為下個(gè)月銀行愿意發(fā)放給油氣公司的貸款將急劇減少,。由于擔(dān)心銀行可能蒙受損失，監(jiān)管部門最近已經(jīng)開(kāi)始向其施壓,，要求它們減少對(duì)油氣行業(yè)放貸,。

????9月25日，信用評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)普稱其問(wèn)題貸款率,，也就是投資者擔(dān)心可能無(wú)力償債的公司借款人所占的百分比,，已經(jīng)達(dá)到2011年以來(lái)的最高點(diǎn)。在270名問(wèn)題借款人中,，有95名來(lái)自油氣行業(yè)，占比最大,。

????大多數(shù)面臨倒閉厄運(yùn)的水力壓裂公司都較小,，但一些規(guī)模較大的壓裂服務(wù)供應(yīng)商也開(kāi)始受到上述問(wèn)題的影響。標(biāo)普列出的問(wèn)題借款人就包括Linn Energy,，這家油氣勘探公司設(shè)在休斯頓,，市值達(dá)10億美元，有近2000名員工,。過(guò)去一年中,，Linn Energy的股價(jià)已經(jīng)下跌90%。標(biāo)普指出,，該公司的問(wèn)題債務(wù)余額接近60億美元,。

????同時(shí)，標(biāo)普的名單中還有Basic Energy Services和Seventy Seven Energy兩大上市壓裂服務(wù)商的身影。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????Doomsday may finally be coming to the fracking industry.

????Despite the big drop in oil prices in the past year, there have been relatively few bankruptcies in the energy industry. That may be about to change. James West, an energy industry analyst at ISI Evercore, says months of low activity have left many of the companies in the hydraulic-fracturing business either insolvent or close to it. He says as many as a third of the fracking companies could go bust by the end of next year.

????“This holiday will not be a time of cheer in the oil patch,” says West.

????So far oil and gas exploration companies, while cutting back somewhat, have continued to spend based on budgets set a year ago when oil prices were much higher. But now West says the price of oil is catching up to them, and they may soon have to drastically cut back their spending on services. The catalyst is the banks.

????Banks lend to oil exploration companies based on the value of their reserves. But they only audit the value of those reserves every October. Given how much oil prices have tumbled in the past year, many analysts expect banks to greatly reduce in the next month how much they are willing to lend to oil and gas companies. Regulators, worried banks may face losses, have recently been pressuring banks to cut back their lending to oil and gas companies.

????On Friday, credit ratings firm Standard & Poors reported that its distressed ratio, which measures the percentage of corporate borrowers that investors appear nervous may not be able to pay back their debt, had reached the highest level since 2011. The oil and gas sector accounted for the largest number of the distressed borrowers, 95 out of 270.

????Most of the fracking firms that face extinction are relatively small. But the problems are starting to affect some of the bigger companies in the industry. On S&P’s list of distressed borrowers is Linn Energy, a $1 billion market cap oil and gas exploration company based in Houston. It has nearly 2,000 employees. Shares of Linn LINE -4.71% have dropped 90% in the past year. S&P says the company has nearly $6 billion in outstanding distressed debt.

????Also on S&P’s list are publicly traded fracking companies Basic Energy Services BAS -5.40% and Seventy Seven Energy SSE 3.37% .