????這個世界正走向地獄,？還是會變得更好？

????每個人對未來的看法不同,，便會給出不同的答案,。但如果你向普林斯頓大學教授,、2015年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主安格斯·迪頓問這個問題，他的答案肯定會令你倍受鼓舞,。正如他在2013年所著的《大脫貧：健康,、財富及不平等的起源》一書中所寫的那樣：“情況正越來越好，甚至超乎我們的想象,?！?/p>

????迪頓是一名樂觀主義者。在上述代表作中,，他認為,，縱觀歷史可見：世界在進步。他指出,，在全球范圍內,，貧窮、死亡和孤立呈減少趨勢,；在他看來,，總體而言，我們正活在一個前所未有的好時代,。

????為什么今年的諾貝爾經濟學獎授予了迪頓,？據(jù)評選委員會表示，迪頓憑借三個方面的重大貢獻獲得這一獎項,。首先,，他在上世紀80年代開發(fā)出了一項工具——“近乎理想的需求系統(tǒng)”——這一模型模擬消費者如何消費。其次,，他在上世紀90年代的研究,，對當時流行的關于消費或消費者支出的宏觀經濟學理論提出了質疑，并指出了綜合數(shù)據(jù)的不足,。（他認為,，個體數(shù)據(jù)同樣重要。）第三,，他率先在發(fā)展中國家使用家庭調查,，收集更準確的、經驗主義的,、個性化的經濟數(shù)據(jù),。

????迪頓有足夠的理由保持樂觀。他是一位著名學者,，在一所常春藤盟校有著安逸的工作,。他出生于發(fā)達國家，在職業(yè)生涯當中贏得了無數(shù)獎項、獎學金和榮譽學位?，F(xiàn)在,，他可以自豪地在無數(shù)榮譽前面再加上一條——他是所有人夢寐以求的諾貝爾獎的獲得者。擁有如此多的榮譽,，誰會不感到樂觀呢,？

????《紐約時報》記者戴維·倫哈德在對迪頓2013年的代表作進行評論時，敏銳地指出：“迪頓很清楚,，許多讀者對于他的觀點會持懷疑態(tài)度,。特別是那些重視金錢更甚于重視人類基本需求的人?！?/p>

????迪頓是第一個承認不平等存在的經濟學家,。世界上一直都有疾病、饑荒和戰(zhàn)爭,。他在獲獎感言中表示,，日益嚴重的不平等和氣候變化是棘手的問題。但總體而言,，這位提倡教育,，不贊成國外援助的學者主張，數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，我們有理由對未來抱以希望,。人類的平均壽命正在延長。貧困正在減少,。經濟在迅速發(fā)展（這取決于你怎么看）,。

????據(jù)CNN財經頻道報道，迪頓在獲獎之后表示：“我預計[貧困]將減少,。過去20年,，全世界貧困水平顯著下降，我認為這一趨勢仍會繼續(xù),。但我并不想讓人們認為我是在盲目樂觀,。”

????我們可以用他在那本過分樂觀的書中的一句話,，來總結迪頓的理論：“今天的世界總是比過去更美好的,?！?/p>

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????The world: Is it going to hell in a hand basket? Or is life improving?

????The answer to this question likely depends upon one’s personal outlook. If you ask Angus Deaton, the Scottish-born Princeton professor who on Monday won the 2015 Nobel Prize in economics, however, he will supply a cheery answer. As he writes in his 2013 book The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality, “Things are getting better, and hugely so.”

????Deaton is an optimist. His reading of history, as laid out in his magnum opus (cited above), suggests one of progress. He argues that poverty, death, and isolation are in global decline; in his view, there has never been, on the whole, a better time to be alive.

????Why Deaton? According to the selection committee, Deaton earned the award for three major contributions to the field. First, for his development of a tool in the ’80s—the Almost Ideal Demand System—which models how consumers spend their money, or “how the demand for each good depends on the prices of all goods on individual incomes.” Second, for his research in the ’90s, which countered prevailing macroeconomic theories of consumption—or consumer spending—by pointing out the flaws of aggregate data. (Individual data is just as key, he argued.) And third, for his pioneering use of household surveys to collect more accurate, empirical, individualized economic data in developing countries.

????Deaton has every reason to be optimistic, of course. He is an eminent man of letters with a cushy gig at an Ivy League institution. He was born in the developed world and has won no small number of awards, fellowships, and honorary degrees, throughout his distinguished career. To that list, he may now add that he is the proud owner of a coveted piece of Swedish bling, so to speak. Who wouldn’t he be optimistic given those laurels?

????“Deaton is surely aware that many readers will view these claims with skepticism,” New York Times reporter David Leonhardt acutely observes in his review of the economist’s 2013 master work, “especially coming from someone whose discipline often seems to elevate money over basic human needs.”

????Deaton is the first to acknowledge that inequalities exist. There is disease, famine, war. Amid his acceptance of the award, he cited rising inequality and climate change as troublesome trends. Generally speaking, however, the proponent of education and a critic of foreign aid contends that the data show cause to be sanguine. Life expectancy is up. Destitution, down. Economic development—depending where you look—climbing apace.

????“I do foresee a decrease [in poverty]. We’ve seen a remarkable decrease over the past 20 years, and I do forecast that will continue,” Deaton said after receiving the prize, reports CNN Money. “But I don’t want to sound like a blind optimist.”

????To summarize the man’s life’s work, as his Panglossian book blurb asserts: “The world is a better place than it used to be.”