????11月3日,，特斯拉發(fā)布第三季度財(cái)報(bào)（凈虧損為2.3億美元,，與去年同期相比有所擴(kuò)大——編者注）。在追隨首席執(zhí)行官顛覆汽車(chē)行業(yè)的夢(mèng)想道路上,，特斯拉可能正在失去前進(jìn)的勢(shì)頭,，或許正在撞上一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。

????前通用和克萊斯勒汽車(chē)公司副董事長(zhǎng)鮑勃·魯茨是最受尊敬的汽車(chē)業(yè)高管之一,。上周,，他在Road and Track網(wǎng)站寫(xiě)道：

????“特斯拉表現(xiàn)出遭遇困境的各種跡象：現(xiàn)金流失、資產(chǎn)證券化、存貨堆積,。對(duì)任何一家汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商來(lái)說(shuō),，這三件都是要命的事。只要是對(duì)特斯拉稍有關(guān)注的人,，就很可能已經(jīng)意識(shí)到,，麻煩之日即將到來(lái)。就像世間的許多難題一樣,，特斯拉的麻煩來(lái)源不止一個(gè),。”

????魯茨的警告不容小覷,。他曾經(jīng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)通用汽車(chē)開(kāi)發(fā)出雪佛蘭Volt電動(dòng)車(chē),，還曾經(jīng)擔(dān)任電池廠(chǎng)商Exide Technologies的首席執(zhí)行官。就在魯茨發(fā)出警告之前,，美國(guó)《消費(fèi)者報(bào)告》雜志網(wǎng)站調(diào)低了特斯拉Model S車(chē)型的評(píng)級(jí),。由于小故障頻發(fā)、質(zhì)量問(wèn)題,，再加上特斯拉應(yīng)對(duì)投訴的能力不足,，該網(wǎng)站將它對(duì)這款車(chē)型的評(píng)級(jí)從“推薦購(gòu)買(mǎi)”降為“低于預(yù)期”。

????巴克萊銀行也在10月9日將特斯拉的評(píng)級(jí)從“中立”下調(diào)至等同于“賣(mài)出”的級(jí)別,，并援引外界的擔(dān)憂(yōu)稱(chēng),，即將上市的Model X跨界車(chē)將“對(duì)特斯拉的利潤(rùn)空間進(jìn)行又一次現(xiàn)實(shí)考驗(yàn)”。

????特斯拉沒(méi)有回應(yīng)《財(cái)富》的置評(píng)請(qǐng)求,。不過(guò)穆斯克本人在Twitter上就《消費(fèi)者報(bào)告》下調(diào)評(píng)級(jí)一事作出了回應(yīng),。

????他還指出，《消費(fèi)者報(bào)告》也發(fā)現(xiàn)有97%的特斯拉車(chē)主期待該公司推出下一款新車(chē),，這證明產(chǎn)品的滿(mǎn)意率很高,。

????根據(jù)第二季度的銷(xiāo)量和虧損來(lái)計(jì)算，特斯拉目前每賣(mài)出一輛車(chē)就要虧損約4000美元,。推出新款車(chē)型還會(huì)在短期內(nèi)增加成本,。此外，穆斯克堅(jiān)持在Model X上使用鷗翼式車(chē)門(mén),，此舉必然會(huì)提高制造的復(fù)雜程度,，引發(fā)可靠性問(wèn)題。這也是其他汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商并未大規(guī)模使用鷗翼式車(chē)門(mén)的原因,。

????對(duì)投資者而言，特斯拉一直是一只高風(fēng)險(xiǎn),、高回報(bào)的股票,。冒險(xiǎn)家們很大程度上都被穆斯克的個(gè)人魅力、企圖心和他作為顛覆者的角色——例如用公司的工作室來(lái)銷(xiāo)售汽車(chē)、提供售后服務(wù),，而不是傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商——所吸引,。此外，Model S酷炫的外形設(shè)計(jì)也重新定義了電動(dòng)汽車(chē)該有和能有的樣子,。首席執(zhí)行官或超級(jí)模特開(kāi)著這樣的車(chē),，不會(huì)覺(jué)得他們是待在貧民窟里，或是穿著一件寒磣的苦行僧服,。

????從2010年6月29日上市那天收盤(pán)價(jià)的23.83美元,，到2014年9月的高點(diǎn)291美元，再到現(xiàn)在的低于210美元,，這只股票絕不是膽小或保守的投資者敢去觸碰的,。它是一只“飛鳥(niǎo)股”。據(jù)納斯達(dá)克網(wǎng)站的消息,，目前仍有10名分析師將這只股票評(píng)為“買(mǎi)入”級(jí),，另有5名分析師給出了“賣(mài)出”或“表現(xiàn)不佳”的評(píng)級(jí)。

????特斯拉的市值大約為270億美元,。對(duì)于一家去年只賣(mài)出了31,665輛汽車(chē),，今年如果保持正軌才可能賣(mài)出5.5萬(wàn)輛汽車(chē)的公司來(lái)說(shuō)，這樣的價(jià)格實(shí)在太高,，很難嚴(yán)肅地把特斯拉視為一個(gè)潛在的收購(gòu)對(duì)象,。

????魯茨警告穆斯克和投資者稱(chēng)，特斯拉銷(xiāo)量和利潤(rùn)上限恐怕低于穆斯克和特斯拉支持者的預(yù)期,。為什么,？因?yàn)槊绹?guó)的汽車(chē)業(yè)充滿(mǎn)了承受能力強(qiáng)大的對(duì)手。這是一個(gè)受到大量管制的資本密集型行業(yè),，許多經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的公司每天都在疲于應(yīng)對(duì)無(wú)處不在的障礙,。

????穆斯克充當(dāng)了一個(gè)顛覆者的角色，而大多數(shù)人都認(rèn)為這個(gè)過(guò)度成熟的行業(yè)急需顛覆,，尤其是處于銷(xiāo)售環(huán)節(jié)的經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商（他們的評(píng)級(jí)可能還不如國(guó)會(huì)）,，以及媒體（事關(guān)消費(fèi)者認(rèn)可度評(píng)級(jí)）。不過(guò)魯茨認(rèn)為,，穆斯克想要依靠公司自己的團(tuán)隊(duì)來(lái)銷(xiāo)售汽車(chē),，完全是愚蠢之舉。他寫(xiě)道：

????“你需要一幢很大的建筑來(lái)提供服務(wù)區(qū),、充電站,，還得有訓(xùn)練有素的銷(xiāo)售團(tuán)隊(duì)，以及必要的財(cái)務(wù)和會(huì)計(jì)人員,。這些都要消耗巨大的資金,，尤其是再考慮到庫(kù)存的因素。在傳統(tǒng)的特許經(jīng)營(yíng)權(quán)的模式下，廠(chǎng)商從來(lái)不需要考慮這些負(fù)擔(dān),。但現(xiàn)在,，特斯拉就得考慮?！?/p>

????特斯拉的成功之處在于將電動(dòng)汽車(chē)設(shè)計(jì)得美觀(guān)時(shí)尚,，令人心動(dòng)。特斯拉Model S就如同阿瑪尼西裝和Kate Spade手包,，而日產(chǎn)Leaf,、福特Focus Electric等電動(dòng)車(chē)，就像是平價(jià)運(yùn)動(dòng)品牌斯凱奇標(biāo)出了Gucci的價(jià)格,，同時(shí)還領(lǐng)著政府補(bǔ)貼,。

????不過(guò)特斯拉正在失去優(yōu)勢(shì)。隨著電池的價(jià)格下降,，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的價(jià)格隨之走低,，充電后的行駛里程也在變長(zhǎng)。新款日產(chǎn)Leaf的外型已經(jīng)得到了大幅改觀(guān),，而且每次充電的續(xù)航里程提升了30%,。

????新款雪佛蘭Volt造型也更加漂亮，續(xù)航里程更長(zhǎng),。此外,，雪佛蘭還將在明年推出價(jià)格更低的Bolt EV。對(duì)特斯拉來(lái)說(shuō)更不好的消息是,，寶馬和奧迪也在推出更多款式的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)和增程式電動(dòng)汽車(chē)（擁有電動(dòng)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)和備用油箱）,。在應(yīng)對(duì)奢侈品買(mǎi)家上，這兩大品牌擁有更加豐富的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和更加完備的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,。

????特斯拉能否如穆斯克所言,，在明年能賣(mài)出超過(guò)6萬(wàn)輛Model X電動(dòng)汽車(chē)，以及大約3萬(wàn)輛Model X跨界車(chē),，將成為對(duì)其持久力和信譽(yù)真正的考驗(yàn),。否則，無(wú)論是特斯拉,，還是穆斯克,，這兩個(gè)品牌都將失去魔力。

????大衛(wèi)·基利居住在密歇根州安阿伯市,，是一名曾榮獲獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)的商業(yè)記者,，也是國(guó)際汽車(chē)出版協(xié)會(huì)的名譽(yù)董事長(zhǎng)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

????審校：任文科

????When Tesla Motors Inc. reports third quarter earnings Tuesday, Nov. 3, it will do so in a headwind of growing skepticism around the Elon Musk-led electric car company; that it may be losing some momentum or perhaps hitting an inflection point in the CEO’s dream of disrupting the auto industry.

????Bob Lutz, former vice chairman of General Motors and Chrysler and one of the most respected auto executives walking around, wrote this week in Road and Track:

????“Tesla’s showing all the signs of a company in trouble: bleeding cash, securitized assets, and mounting inventory. It’s the trifecta of doom for any automaker, and anyone paying attention probably saw this coming a mile away. Like most big puzzles, the company’s woes don’t have just one source.”

????That warning to Musk from Lutz, who also developed GM’s Chevy Volt and is former CEO of battery maker Exide Technologies, came on the heels of Consumer Reports dinging the Tesla Model S. Consumer Reports lowered its rating from “recommended” to “worse than expected” based on glitches, build quality issues and Tesla’s ability to cope with complaints.

????Barclays also on Oct. 9 downgraded Tesla to the equivalent of a sell rating from “Neutral,” citing concern that the forthcoming Model X crossover will “provide yet another reality check on margins.”

????Tesla didn’t respond to Fortune’s request for comment. But Musk responded to the Consumer Reports downgrade via Twitter.

????He also noted that Consumer Reports had found that 97% of Tesla owners expect their next car to be from the company, which suggests a high satisfaction rate.

????Currently, Tesla loses about $4,000 per vehicle it sells based on second quarter sales volume and losses. And launching a new model increases costs in the short term. Plus, Musk’s insistence on putting gull-wing doors on the Model X is bound to create manufacturing complexity and reliability issues. There is a reason why gullwings don’t make it into mass production at other car companies.

????Tesla has been a high-risk, high-reward stock for investors. The risk takers have been largely drawn to Musk’s power of personality, his intent and role as a disruptor, preferring, for example, to bypass traditional car dealers in favor of company-owned studios to sell and service the cars. Too, the sexy design of the Model S has redefined what an electric car should and could look like—a set of exhaust-free wheels that a CEO or super model could see themselves driving without feeling like they are slumming or wearing the automotive equivalent of a hair-shirt.

????From its close on opening day of trading June 29 2010 at $23.83 to its high of $291 reached in September 2014 to where it is trading now, below $210, the stock has not been for the faint of heart or the conservative investor. It’s a “flyer stock.” There are still ten analysts following the stock with a “buy” rating, versus five with a “sell,” or “underperform,” according to NASDAQ.com.

????Tesla’s street value is roughly $27 billion. For a company that sold 31,665 vehicles last year, and might hit 55,000 this year if manages to stay on track, that is too much money to seriously consider Tesla a takeover target.

????Lutz’s warnings to Musk, and to investors, is that Tesla could have a lower ceiling for sales and profits than Musk and Tesla boosters think. Why? Because selling automobiles in the U.S. is not for the faint of heart. It is a very capital intensive, regulation intensive business fraught with obstacles that more experienced firms cope with every day.

????Musk is a disruptor operating in an industry most people think is over-ripe for disruption, especially in the selling process through dealers who may well rank lower than Congress and the media when it comes to consumer approval ratings. But Lutz believes Musk’s desire for company-owned facilities is a fool’s errand. As he writes,

????“You need a big building with service bays, chargers, and a trained sales force, plus all the necessary finance and accounting people. It ties up a staggering amount of capital, especially when you factor in inventory. Under a traditional franchise arrangement, the factory never has to carry that burden. Right now, Tesla does.”

????Where Tesla has succeeded is in making electric cars truly aspirational and beautiful from a styling standpoint. The Tesla Model S is an Armani suit or Kate Spade bag, while the Nissan Leaf, Ford Focus Electric and their like are Sketchers at Gucci prices with government subsidies.

????But the Tesla advantages could be eroding. The prices of electric vehicles are coming down as batteries become cheaper, and range is expanding. Already, the new Nissan Leaf redesign is much better looking than the original, and the range on a single charge is increasing 30%.

????The new Chevy Volt is sleeker with a longer electric range than the original, and Chevy is launching a cheaper Bolt EV next year. Worse for Tesla are the growing offerings of EV and extended-range electric (which run on electric motors with back up gas tanks)from BMW and Audi, who have far more experience and infrastructure in handling luxury buyers.

????If Musk can stay on track to sell more than 60,000 Model X EVs next year, and add some 30,000 Model X crossovers next year, as he’s stated he will, it will be a true test of Tesla’s staying power and credibility. If it goes badly, though, the electricity in both the Tesla and Musk brand will certainly dim.

????David Kiley, based in Ann Arbor, MI, is an award-winning business journalist and President Emeritus of the International Motor Press Association.